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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:26 pm

March has been known to spit out some big storms as of recent years. I prefer to be in spring by then but seems to be the new extended winter. If I do not see at least 26 inches this year it will be the lowest since I joined in 2013. That's pretty crazy. If you look at my signature you can see the trend of seasonal totals though I guess last year's 26 inches was near normal. We got spoiled the previous years with Godzilla and a roidzilla man would I like to go back to those days. You guys can't possibly not agree on that!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:07 am

anyone see this??
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2020-01-18-newfoundland-blizzard-record-daily-snow-st-johns

https://globalnews.ca/news/6430959/photos-eastern-newfoundland-snow/

on a side note don't think my husband will go with me to see northern lights in yellowknife,.,,just saw in a weather video its -33 ...it may be ground zero...but I better start thinking more of Europe...anyone been can give some advice...answer in Banter please. The snow pictures in Newfoundland are beautiful..but again when we see extremes ...we also see destruction and danger to peoples lives.. I remember when I was young we had a storm when we opened our door to a wall of snow...
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Post by Radz Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:49 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:anyone see this??
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2020-01-18-newfoundland-blizzard-record-daily-snow-st-johns

https://globalnews.ca/news/6430959/photos-eastern-newfoundland-snow/

on a side note don't think my husband will go with me to see northern lights in yellowknife,.,,just saw in a weather video its -33 ...it may be ground zero...but I better start thinking more of Europe...anyone been can give some advice...answer in Banter please. The snow pictures in Newfoundland are beautiful..but again when we see extremes ...we also see destruction and danger to peoples lives.. I remember when I was young we had a storm when we opened our door to a wall of snow...

I don't know about you, but i want to do the Aurora Borealis from a glass igloo in a winter wonderland! Looks absolutely amazing! This is what I'm talking about lol https://www.kakslauttanen.fi/accommodation/
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:57 am

Any takers on cmc's plausibility? HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:16 am

A lovely picture for a storm.

Did anyone see the eight car pile up on the Cross Bronx yesterday? Icing at first according to the news people. If this had been on a Fri...I was sorry to see it. Injuries. Some severe.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:26 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11
A classic Miller B bomb. Euro showed a coastal transfer last night as well as the EPS and GEFS. For a Miller B to occur for our area sufficient cold air and blocking is needed. At this point I'm looking for continued upper level improvements in model runs for the next couple of days.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:49 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

This happens as modeled here, and I'm going to have re-locate by about 100 miles. Maybe I should just go due east at this point. Sad Mad Sad Mad

In all seriousness, though all I need is one decent storm per season (6"+, no back end rain, and decent thump during daytime hours), so ima track and hope some more...

And also in seriousness, I'm sounding off in support of JMAN. He's doing exactly what we all hail him for half of the time- being an Enthusiast. Matter of fact, he's the Chief Enthusiast, imo. He's not disparaging or mocking anyone's work on here as far as I can see, so I'm not sure why his frustrations, even if misplaced, bother people so much. And I don't think my opinion here is worth any more than anyone else's for sure, so I'm not telling people how to think or what to say. But, I don't think my opinion is worth less than anyone's either, and I'd much rather 'put up' with Jman's rants (such as they are, which again, I think are more predictable and played out, and not in any way trying to put people down or minimize their contributions) than create a chilling effect.

Just my two cents, not trying to stir anything up, but feel like it's appropriate to at least express myself.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:16 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

This is a perfect setup for the HV and has a near 0% of happening as depicted by last nights 0Z CMC. It's still fun to look at and dream. Not so much so if you live on the Central Jersey coast on down I guess.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:21 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

This is a perfect setup for the HV and has a near 0% of happening as depicted by last nights 0Z CMC. It's still fun to look at and dream. Not so much so if you live on the Central Jersey coast on down I guess.

CMC needs this
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Giphy

_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:56 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

This is a perfect setup for the HV and has a near 0% of happening as depicted by last nights 0Z CMC. It's still fun to look at and dream. Not so much so if you live on the Central Jersey coast on down I guess.

Reminds me of the old Disneyland TV Show on Sunday nights in the 1950's..... "And now, we take you to FANTASYLAND"!

LOL, CP, if we had a dollar for all the model maps we have seen with our area as the bullseye that never pan out we would be rich! Show me this the day before the storm and I'll bite.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:10 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

This happens as modeled here, and I'm going to have re-locate by about 100 miles. Maybe I should just go due east at this point. Sad Mad Sad Mad

In all seriousness, though all I need is one decent storm per season (6"+, no back end rain, and decent thump during daytime hours), so ima track and hope some more...

And also in seriousness, I'm sounding off in support of JMAN. He's doing exactly what we all hail him for half of the time- being an Enthusiast. Matter of fact, he's the Chief Enthusiast, imo. He's not disparaging or mocking anyone's work on here as far as I can see, so I'm not sure why his frustrations, even if misplaced, bother people so much. And I don't think my opinion here is worth any more than anyone else's for sure, so I'm not telling people how to think or what to say. But, I don't think my opinion is worth less than anyone's either, and I'd much rather 'put up' with Jman's rants (such as they are, which again, I think are more predictable and played out, and not in any way trying to put people down or minimize their contributions) than create a chilling effect.

Just my two cents, not trying to stir anything up, but feel like it's appropriate to at least express myself.
Purely exactly how I feel when I post, but I guess it just comes out wrong, but thank you SENJ, that brightened my day. Yes thats all I am is an enthusiest and no I never put anyone down or say people are making bad forecasts, you guys all try really hard and put a lot of effort into the long discussions and we all hope for the best. Maybe my finger is a bit more trigger happy in being disappointed but its not aimed at anyone other than the sky for not snowing! LOL, as for the CMC map, I would even love this as I am on the fringe of the high and low end but way too early to tell, I have been able to temper any expectations and have nott been riding model run b run in fact I wait for you guys to post them now. So lets all relax, I think some of the tension towards me may be other peoples frustrations with this winter too, just my 2 cents. A storm on a sunday would be great. All the people who know and have met me know I am not a aweful downtrodden person, as stated by many I am going through some very uncomfortable health issues, but thats not my excuse for my posts in fact I have no excuse, it is how I feel and I should be able to voice tat as long as it is not attacking anyone or putting down a forecaster on here or anywhere else. Anyways today is my preparation for my procedure tomorrow and hiopefully I will soon be feeling better this week. The preparation is not pleasent and I will try to stay off the forum till this is over LOL
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:12 pm

@amugs wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Any takers on cmc's plausibility?  HV crew would love this outcome.

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Cmc11

This is a perfect setup for the HV and has a near 0% of happening as depicted by last nights 0Z CMC. It's still fun to look at and dream. Not so much so if you live on the Central Jersey coast on down I guess.

CMC needs this
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 21 Giphy
Agent michael scarn!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:04 pm

I just wanted to comment on one thing that has bothered me through this season. Certain people not many constantly stomp on me for hoping for snow days. Mugs I know is an educator and I am pretty sure you hope for some snow days too. Does that make us bad educators? Well I have been told so so why is it any different when mugs writes about delays and closings? People that are not educators should not comment on such as they do not know that it is one of if not the most difficult jobs there is. And my job is totally different than a regular school, it is not Dept. of Education it is Dept. of Health because we are ABA therapists for kids ages 18 months to 3. Its a totally different type of school, called early intervention. If you are interested look it up and see how hard it is. And mugs not putting down your hard work either, regular education is just as hard work. I do not get summers off though so you cant get as many snow days LOL, Thats all.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:13 pm

Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less. Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often. Going to bed without back pain in a long time.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:19 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less.  Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often.  Going to bed without back pain in a long time.

Glad to hear it went well. Hydrating is so so important, try to keep a water bottle with you at all times (maybe one of the refillable ones that you can refill at work) Hopefully that will help!

_________________
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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  6.25"

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:34 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less.  Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often.  Going to bed without back pain in a long time.

Glad to hear it went well. Hydrating is so so important, try to keep a water bottle with you at all times (maybe one of the refillable ones that you can refill at work) Hopefully that will help!
I do but it is often hard to get a drink in with the kids running around and even harder to get out to the rest room constantly. But I will be more mindful of this from now on. It may also be something in my diet and thats what the labs will tell. But we have to wait for the stone fragments to pass. So hoping this saturday happens as a get well gift lol, but I do not have a lot of hope as it seems like a senario where it isnt going to be easy to get it to work out especially where I sit.
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Post by billg315 Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:22 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less.  Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often.  Going to bed without back pain in a long time.

Jman, glad to hear everything went well. Hope you're feeling better. We'll try to get you a good windstorm to celebrate your recovery! Wink
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:25 am

@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less.  Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often.  Going to bed without back pain in a long time.


Jman, glad to hear everything went well. Hope you're feeling better. We'll try to get you a good windstorm to celebrate your recovery! Wink
nah I want a snowstorm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:33 am

Tired Mad

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Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:02 am

This is why you shouldn't trust models a week plus out Frank! They are never right lol
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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 am

I think I have reached my Pink Floyd stage. That is to say "Comfortably Numb." The last three winters (I'm now officially including this one because the best we can hope for is an active Feb.-March and I'll believe it when I see it) have been so lackluster and uneventful in the snow department that I'm not sure it is even fazing me right now. I'd be more shocked to look at the forecast and actually see a real major snow event projected. I sure hope this cycle (as I believe we will look back on this period as one of our "bad" 3-4 year cycles for snow) ends next winter.
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Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:17 am

@billg315 wrote:I think I have reached my Pink Floyd stage. That is to say "Comfortably Numb." The last three winters (I'm now officially including this one because the best we can hope for is an active Feb.-March and I'll believe it when I see it) have been so lackluster and uneventful in the snow department that I'm not sure it is even fazing me right now. I'd be more shocked to look at the forecast and actually see a real major snow event projected. I sure hope this cycle (as I believe we will look back on this period as one of our "bad" 3-4 year cycles for snow) ends next winter.

I am in the same boat, I no longer care. I am hoping for an early spring so I can get all my stuff ready for mowing season. I have a ton of stuff to prepare, cleanups, etc.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:22 am

@billg315 wrote:I think I have reached my Pink Floyd stage. That is to say "Comfortably Numb." The last three winters (I'm now officially including this one because the best we can hope for is an active Feb.-March and I'll believe it when I see it) have been so lackluster and uneventful in the snow department that I'm not sure it is even fazing me right now. I'd be more shocked to look at the forecast and actually see a real major snow event projected. I sure hope this cycle (as I believe we will look back on this period as one of our "bad" 3-4 year cycles for snow) ends next winter.

Ditto this sentiment!!
Unforeseen drivers by many have blown up there foercasts. easy to sit back and say I told you, models suck, yada yada yada but the fact is there WERE a GOOD AMOUNT of positives heading into this winter. Just goes to show how one or two kinks in the armor can do you in. Amazing how we've had a N NAO for a long stretch of time and once it went away in midish Dec it was never to be seen since. Models kept showing good to great patterns evolving and they did not due to the butterfly effects in some instances. The data RAOB sets need to be expanded over the desolate areas so as to provide better information and understanding of pattern development.
Winter started out well overall and then once we hit the Winter Solstice it went away. Will it come back - probably from Late February through mid March to screw thing sup, fight over sun angle, elevation etc.

One thing is interesting is that the CMC is getting a monster upgrade soon and will be a much better model from what the "experts" are saying.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Grselig Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:25 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Thank you to those who gave me their support. The procedure was a success today and will slowly pass the bits of the stone in the next few weeks or less.  Next step is lab tests to figure out what is causing my kidney stones, Dr. said its likely lack of water. I do tend to dehydrate myself too often.  Going to bed without back pain in a long time.


Jman, glad to hear everything went well. Hope you're feeling better. We'll try to get you a good windstorm to celebrate your recovery! Wink
nah I want a snowstorm.

That's good news!
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Post by crippo84 Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:33 pm

What's worse for everybody - a spectacular pattern that historically should produce but eventually only produces cold and dry? Or a terrible pattern that we're currently in that gives us the wet but warm storms? Both are disappointing, but which is more?
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