2019 TROPICAL SEASON

billg315 wrote:Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.

I would almost be willing to argue that it hasn’t actually landfalled yet. But I agree with your sentiments of intrigue haha

LR GFS has a hurricane into the big bend of FL then up the EC into PA as it rains itself out. Maybe we will be having something to watch but way to far out now.

rb924119 wrote:No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!

Oh the ryan and CT i figured connecticut. I was almost sure it was him. Anyways things as i pointed out will likely be heating up over the next month and into the fall.

Our first east coast threat, no models develop it and even if it did it would likely get kicked out by a front, unless the war is really strong and far north.  Sometimes models do not catch on until later on we will see.

I just saw this scrolling through Facebook. While I'm not a met or anything I love this forum and have for years (I post on occasion haha). But I always keep an eye out for hurricanes as we live on the bay. Maybe you guys know more about it?

Cheers!

Nothing urgent brewing in the Atlantic right now. There is a wave in the far eastern Atlantic that could bear watching in a few days as it gets closer to the western Atlantic, but its a long way off for now.

Nothing is going to affect the US in the foreseeable future with the troughs coming down on the models

Hold onto your hats the next 3 months are gonna be crazy, they just upped to a overactive season with 10-17 named storms 3-7 huricanes and 3-4 cat 3 or higher, being there has not been but what one? named storm that is a average of one to two every week!!

Lee Goldberg said it would havevto get busy fast. He said this tonight. I guess it is getting busy fast

That is rather incredible. There is nothing forecast to develop in the Atlantic for the next week, at least. That means any activity wouldn’t fire up until the last two weeks of August at the earliest. Given the Atlantic’s peak season is from the end of July to the end of September almost all of that activity would have to happen in a little over a month. Either they’re off the mark or September is going to be crazy in the Atlantic.

Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

billg315 wrote:Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

200MB vertical velocity forecast for week 2 starting to look interesting for the Atlantic basin.  Should that forecast come to fruition things will likely come to life.  That said there are also somewhat favorable conditions in the eastern Pac off the central american coast as well.  If trop development in this location it often steals the upward motion thunder from the Atlantic basin

Later August through mid Spetemwbr is prime season and it will be again as conditions look to be forecasted as SROC pointed more favorable for tropical development.

I know it all can change in a few days as thing pop but that is what I notice. Some see it Jiffy-popping as in ready to pop an others say quiet but soon. I am curious if hellzapoppin’ soon

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

200MB vertical velocity forecast for week 2 starting to look interesting for the Atlantic basin.  Should that forecast come to fruition things will likely come to life.  That said there are also somewhat favorable conditions in the eastern Pac off the central american coast as well.  If trop development in this location it often steals the upward motion thunder from the Atlantic basin

Recall what I posted above last Monday.  Here is the updated forecast.  I wish I took a snap shot and saved last weeks forecast to compare last weeks week 2 forecast to this weeks week 1 forecast.  The image above in the quote is updated with the current forecast because I copy and pasted the URL instead of saving and inserting the image i guess.  Anyway, The second image, which is now the week one 200mb velocity potential, still on course for trop activity to amp up.  Notice however there are the blue colors(represents favored upward motion) located in the Eastern Pac as well as the Western Atl/GOM/Caribbean.  I still think we see a trop system or two develop in the eastern Pac first which likely prevents upward motion on the Atlantic side.  However as the 200mb VP conts to shift notice the entire Pac is under the influence of the warm colors(favored sinking air) in the week two forecast.  IF this cont to evolve as is being forecasted things will become active fo show.

todays 12z euro has a tropical system off the nc coast next tuesday. with the 500mb setup could possibly affect us.

algae888 wrote:todays 12z euro has a tropical system off the nc coast next tuesday. with the 500mb setup could possibly affect us.

Ridge over troubled waters. “JB”. I def think it needs to be watched. Both GFs and Euro have the ridge. Look underneath for the mischief. Hope your having a good summer Al.

sroc4 wrote:

algae888 wrote:todays 12z euro has a tropical system off the nc coast next tuesday. with the 500mb setup could possibly affect us.

Ridge over troubled waters. “JB”.  I def think it needs to be watched. Both GFs and Euro have the ridge. Look underneath for the mischief. Hope your having a good summer Al.

Hey all, we havent had much to talk about this summer, maybe this will be our first summer tracking. Hey Al, of all people did not expect you to chime in on this, i know how much you Love tropical threats especially if theres some sort of threat big or small. Anyways we have had some decent storms here so far this summer but mainly for the lightning. I recorded the other day what I am pretty sure was a rotating storm, it def had a low cloud with a rotation in it and little spin offs of darker cloud wisps was cool to look at even if it wasn't. Scott, you guys have been getting rocked in LI with severe weather ive seen. We track!

Is this our potential system to watch? Has a 50% chance, yesterday was only 20 and it wasn't looking good, its always these sneaky ones.

Up to red 70% but all models take it ots is there something I am missing? Do they not realize the ridge yet? Also it's interesting euro only one to intensify it into a ts.

jmanley32 wrote:Up to red 70% but all models take it ots is there something I am missing? Do they not realize the ridge yet? Also it's interesting euro only one to intensify it into a ts.

Forget models on intensity beyond 24 hrs when there isn’t even a defined low level center. The ridge is there but there is a weakness to the east.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Up to red 70% but all models take it ots is there something I am missing? Do they not realize the ridge yet? Also it's interesting euro only one to intensify it into a ts.

Forget models on intensity beyond 24 hrs when there isn’t even a defined low level center.  The ridge is there but there is a weakness to the east.

right. Well the Atlantic on queue is lighting up. Another high chance system east of the onwards now.

hey guys will any of this you think effect next weekend? we plan on taking the boat down to seaside for the long weekend? TIA...hope everyone is enjoying this beautiful day...

Doesn't look like nhc is having the unnamed systemof f the ec do anything but go ots but I guess it's not over till it is. We have Dorian east of the winwards 5 day takes it to around hispanola and who knows after that could tear him although is proged to become a hurricane.

I would agree the disturbance off Florida probably limps OTS even if it does intensify. Dorian is wide open to possibilities now since it’s so far out. Does look to become a hurricane. IF it were to impact the Gulf or East Coast the most likely time-frame would be Saturday to Monday, so it bears watching. Too earlier to know anything for sure though.

billg315 wrote:I would agree the disturbance off Florida probably limps OTS even if it does intensify. Dorian is wide open to possibilities now since it’s so far out. Does look to become a hurricane. IF it were to impact the Gulf or East Coast the most likely time-frame would be Saturday to Monday, so it bears watching. Too earlier to know anything for sure though.

as progged it's supposed to go over Hispaniola as a ts and come 9ff as a depression. That Island is death for hurricanes but once it moves into Bahamas could regenerate quickly. Any movement to the south or north thpugh and a miss to That Island could mean a much stronger storm. And I'm assuming Bill means Monday as in Sept. 2nd.

A little north