2019 TROPICAL SEASON

billg315 wrote:I would agree the disturbance off Florida probably limps OTS even if it does intensify. Dorian is wide open to possibilities now since it’s so far out. Does look to become a hurricane. IF it were to impact the Gulf or East Coast the most likely time-frame would be Saturday to Monday, so it bears watching. Too earlier to know anything for sure though.

as progged it's supposed to go over Hispaniola as a ts and come 9ff as a depression. That Island is death for hurricanes but once it moves into Bahamas could regenerate quickly. Any movement to the south or north thpugh and a miss to That Island could mean a much stronger storm. And I'm assuming Bill means Monday as in Sept. 2nd.

A little north

Yeah Dorian could shoot the gap they now have him as a hurricane longer and a ts as he enters Bahamas. We may have to watch this one down the road as it appears to now head to ec. Last night's euro had it hit central FL then up ec to Carolinas at 240 hrs. Way to far out at this time.

Their is alot of uncertainty with Dorian have to see if it survives the shredder of Hispaniola.

Current track has Dorian missing the majority of hispanola and taking a sneak between which is pretty rare but other things seem to stop him from gaining strength in the Bahamas before a possible landfall on Florida east coast Friday or Saturday. I find it hard to believe with the Bahamas area being a usually primo area that he doesn't gain some strength. We shall see.

jmanley32 wrote:Current track has Dorian missing the majority of hispanola and taking a sneak between which is pretty rare but other things seem to stop him from gaining strength in the Bahamas before a possible landfall on Florida east coast Friday or Saturday. I find it hard to believe with the Bahamas area being a usually primo area that he doesn't gain some strength. We shall see.

Its not looking to Goid jman recon went through

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Current track has Dorian missing the majority of hispanola and taking a sneak between which is pretty rare but other things seem to stop him from gaining strength in the Bahamas before a possible landfall on Florida east coast Friday or Saturday. I find it hard to believe with the Bahamas area being a usually primo area that he doesn't gain some strength. We shall see.

Its not looking to Goid jman recon went through

ahh ok well whatever. I guess it is good for people down there. There will be more to track.

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Current track has Dorian missing the majority of hispanola and taking a sneak between which is pretty rare but other things seem to stop him from gaining strength in the Bahamas before a possible landfall on Florida east coast Friday or Saturday. I find it hard to believe with the Bahamas area being a usually primo area that he doesn't gain some strength. We shall see.

Its not looking to Goid jman recon went through

ahh ok well whatever. I guess it is good for people down there. There will be more to track.

Dont give up on it yet. Way too many variables.  Currently there is a fair amount of shear on its NW flank in the direction its headed.  




Second there is dry air in the midlevels(700mb-500mb approx) on both the NNE and SSE periphery.  The system is ingesting this dry air and is wreaking havoc on the convection.   You can see it on the dropsonde recon data and on the sat imagery.  Watch the convection in these areas just fizzle on the sat loop below.  



That said if it survives as it passes between PR and Hispanola somewhat of an anticyclone is forecasted to develop over top and an ULL to its SE that could enhance ventilation with gradual strengthening is possible.   As it approaches the Bahamas it will be in a much more saturated air mass and much less dry air. As it approaches the SE CONUS late week there is a positively tilted trough approaching the NE coast line around the smae time and hints of a possible jet streak  forecasted.  IF th timing were right it would put Dorian in the right rear quadrant which enhances upward motion and could cause additional strengthening.  This one is not done by a long shot.  Still way to many variables to stick a fork in this.  Alot can happen for better or worse....thats right Jon.....

WE TRACK!!

Yeahhh, the latest Euro is disconcerting to say the least with a strengthening hurricane in very warm Bahamian waters at hr 84...and heading west.

Hot off the press...

...and then this happened.

SoulSingMG wrote:...and then this happened.

Beyond that, it curves back OTS off Hatteras. Case in point, lots of uncertainty for at least the next 48 hours.

Well then. From barely a ts to now potential cat 2 3 off se coast. My in-laws are in Daytona area nhc cone is very close to dead on there. But as you can see consensus for now is he steers away.

5am update

Wow gfs has it down to 959mb cat 4 off SC...i was sure he was going to interact with Hispaniola but he took the smarter course for his life...maybe not so for those on the ec though.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow gfs has it down to 959mb cat 4 off SC...i was sure he was going to interact with Hispaniola but he took the smarter course for his life...maybe not so for those on the ec though.

Correct Jay man it's not going to interact with hhispinola it took more of a North jog. Models are showing as high as a cat too and it should be starting to get its act together soon hurricane watches are up for Puerto Rico

GFS's are outliers. EURO, UKMET, CMC, ICON, HWrf are same

11am update not good for Florida winds up to 70mph and they now have him a category 3 plus heading into Florida...

2PM update has Dorian upgraded to hurricane status with winds of 75 mph. 997 mb.

Dorian Flexing some muscle in the US Virgin Islands


Latest Euro and GFS are very concerning for the FLA coast and SE as well as the North Gulf Coast - it would be an absolute disaster if she slams S FLA and then tracks into the Panhandle where Mikey did last year.


She is blossoming - look at the convection burst

amugs wrote:

Hoping it doesn't pan out like this. Have too many family members right inside that bullseye zone. My son just moved into a new apartment in Fort Lauderdale 3 days ago.

BREAKING: Florida declares a state of emergency ahead of #Dorian

How much chance is there he stays this far south, that puts flagler beach out of the bullseye completely which was the landfall spot by NHC as of 5pm,.thats where my inlaws live and i also have wifes family in tampa.

Not that many/any of you really care to hear, but I’m currently on vacation with highly limited internet access (mobile only), so the ability to really sit and comfortably analyze anything in detail is quite restricted.....cell phone screens are too small for this field hahaha anyway, I quickly skimmed through the pages in the thread and would like to offer some additional opinion. I believe that not enough attention is being paid to the trough progged to be progressing through the U.S. simultaneously with Dorian’s westward motion and possible strengthening. Based on my (subjective) analysis, this trough should wind up a bit stronger/deeper and faster with its progression compared with current modeling. At face value, this would be a good thing, as I think the likelihood of interaction would be greatly increased and a sweep out to sea much more likely, especially when considering the historical tendency for storms coming from this general direction (southeast of Florida) to not “want” to landfall along the eastern coast of Florida where the coastline is not due north-south. However, Dorian’s rate of intensification has a direct impact on whether a connection with this trough (hypothetically) occurs, as the faster intensitification occurs, the slower storms tend to move (as evidenced by the bimodally distributed EPS members posted earlier).

As we know, intensity forecasts are very uncertain when it comes to these systems, but given what we have seen so far, it appears to be overachieving. That said, it is also running along the northwestern flank of large-scale subsidence per 200hPa CHI charts which could work to mitigate overall strengthening down the road (i.e. acting as a capping mechanism with regard to intensity as this larger-scale subsidence partislly offsets smaller-scale factors).

Other factors already mentioned include the effects of diabatic and latent heat release feedbacks, in addition to the Northern Hemispheric alignment, climatology, and meso-scale evolutions near land, and based on what I’m currently seeing, I think a last-minute turn to the north along/just offshore of Florida’s east coast is more likely than not, with an eventual turn out sea off the Carolinas. I wish I could elaborate further with images and stuff, but I can only do so much on mobile. Just my two cents, and obviously open for discussion

And rb the euro and cmc just did this to a degree but not before landfall and next Thursday according to euro we have a 990mb hurricane off the jersey coast.....cmc has remnants as it stays over land longer but we do get effects. Didn't think it might be a possibility we would come into the mix somehow but I suppose it's possible but that's so far down the line we wouldn't know that until he affects Florida first.