2019 TROPICAL SEASON

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Current track has Dorian missing the majority of hispanola and taking a sneak between which is pretty rare but other things seem to stop him from gaining strength in the Bahamas before a possible landfall on Florida east coast Friday or Saturday. I find it hard to believe with the Bahamas area being a usually primo area that he doesn't gain some strength. We shall see.

Its not looking to Goid jman recon went through

ahh ok well whatever. I guess it is good for people down there. There will be more to track.

Dont give up on it yet. Way too many variables.  Currently there is a fair amount of shear on its NW flank in the direction its headed.  




Second there is dry air in the midlevels(700mb-500mb approx) on both the NNE and SSE periphery.  The system is ingesting this dry air and is wreaking havoc on the convection.   You can see it on the dropsonde recon data and on the sat imagery.  Watch the convection in these areas just fizzle on the sat loop below.  



That said if it survives as it passes between PR and Hispanola somewhat of an anticyclone is forecasted to develop over top and an ULL to its SE that could enhance ventilation with gradual strengthening is possible.   As it approaches the Bahamas it will be in a much more saturated air mass and much less dry air. As it approaches the SE CONUS late week there is a positively tilted trough approaching the NE coast line around the smae time and hints of a possible jet streak  forecasted.  IF th timing were right it would put Dorian in the right rear quadrant which enhances upward motion and could cause additional strengthening.  This one is not done by a long shot.  Still way to many variables to stick a fork in this.  Alot can happen for better or worse....thats right Jon.....

WE TRACK!!

Not that many/any of you really care to hear, but I’m currently on vacation with highly limited internet access (mobile only), so the ability to really sit and comfortably analyze anything in detail is quite restricted.....cell phone screens are too small for this field hahaha anyway, I quickly skimmed through the pages in the thread and would like to offer some additional opinion. I believe that not enough attention is being paid to the trough progged to be progressing through the U.S. simultaneously with Dorian’s westward motion and possible strengthening. Based on my (subjective) analysis, this trough should wind up a bit stronger/deeper and faster with its progression compared with current modeling. At face value, this would be a good thing, as I think the likelihood of interaction would be greatly increased and a sweep out to sea much more likely, especially when considering the historical tendency for storms coming from this general direction (southeast of Florida) to not “want” to landfall along the eastern coast of Florida where the coastline is not due north-south. However, Dorian’s rate of intensification has a direct impact on whether a connection with this trough (hypothetically) occurs, as the faster intensitification occurs, the slower storms tend to move (as evidenced by the bimodally distributed EPS members posted earlier).

As we know, intensity forecasts are very uncertain when it comes to these systems, but given what we have seen so far, it appears to be overachieving. That said, it is also running along the northwestern flank of large-scale subsidence per 200hPa CHI charts which could work to mitigate overall strengthening down the road (i.e. acting as a capping mechanism with regard to intensity as this larger-scale subsidence partislly offsets smaller-scale factors).

Other factors already mentioned include the effects of diabatic and latent heat release feedbacks, in addition to the Northern Hemispheric alignment, climatology, and meso-scale evolutions near land, and based on what I’m currently seeing, I think a last-minute turn to the north along/just offshore of Florida’s east coast is more likely than not, with an eventual turn out sea off the Carolinas. I wish I could elaborate further with images and stuff, but I can only do so much on mobile. Just my two cents, and obviously open for discussion