2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Not that many/any of you really care to hear, but I’m currently on vacation with highly limited internet access (mobile only), so the ability to really sit and comfortably analyze anything in detail is quite restricted.....cell phone screens are too small for this field hahaha anyway, I quickly skimmed through the pages in the thread and would like to offer some additional opinion. I believe that not enough attention is being paid to the trough progged to be progressing through the U.S. simultaneously with Dorian’s westward motion and possible strengthening. Based on my (subjective) analysis, this trough should wind up a bit stronger/deeper and faster with its progression compared with current modeling. At face value, this would be a good thing, as I think the likelihood of interaction would be greatly increased and a sweep out to sea much more likely, especially when considering the historical tendency for storms coming from this general direction (southeast of Florida) to not “want” to landfall along the eastern coast of Florida where the coastline is not due north-south. However, Dorian’s rate of intensification has a direct impact on whether a connection with this trough (hypothetically) occurs, as the faster intensitification occurs, the slower storms tend to move (as evidenced by the bimodally distributed EPS members posted earlier).

As we know, intensity forecasts are very uncertain when it comes to these systems, but given what we have seen so far, it appears to be overachieving. That said, it is also running along the northwestern flank of large-scale subsidence per 200hPa CHI charts which could work to mitigate overall strengthening down the road (i.e. acting as a capping mechanism with regard to intensity as this larger-scale subsidence partislly offsets smaller-scale factors).

Other factors already mentioned include the effects of diabatic and latent heat release feedbacks, in addition to the Northern Hemispheric alignment, climatology, and meso-scale evolutions near land, and based on what I’m currently seeing, I think a last-minute turn to the north along/just offshore of Florida’s east coast is more likely than not, with an eventual turn out sea off the Carolinas. I wish I could elaborate further with images and stuff, but I can only do so much on mobile. Just my two cents, and obviously open for discussion