NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON

+24
mwilli
Dunnzoo
HectorO
docstox12
hyde345
aiannone
Frank_Wx
Radz
Grselig
nutleyblizzard
SoulSingMG
weatherwatchermom
algae888
amugs
Spacemanspiff99
rb924119
Joe Snow
dkodgis
GreyBeard
Snow88
jmanley32
skinsfan1177
billg315
sroc4
28 posters

Page 13 of 17 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17  Next

Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:29 pm

Dorian appears to be nudging west on each GFS and Euro run recently, so at least eastern areas may experience some moderate TS conditions, if these movements continue it may get into the NYC area not much of a big shift will cause this to happen, something to watch for friday and saturday, my guess is how far he gets inland in NC will determine how far NW he gets along the coast. He is going to expand greatly so TS wind field will be huge compared to now.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:31 pm

Joe Snow wrote:Getting Busy out in the Tropics..............

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Tropic10
Yep right on cue with the 10th coming up. I think we have a lot going on through end of october. GFS lost the storm on 18th last 2 runs but thats to be expected, probably wont bring it back for 4-5 days if at all.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:33 pm

Likely GFS has seen the huge drop in the forecast for that system coming off africa, went from 90% to 50%, do not see a lot of promise in that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:42 pm

Dorian is regaining strength and his eye wall - look at the bright redish and orangy cloud tops and his wind field on the western flank is expanding
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 EDo8n5CX4AAFO9b?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:03 pm

amugs wrote:Dorian is regaining strength and his eye wall - look at the bright redish and orangy cloud tops and his wind field on the western flank is expanding
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 EDo8n5CX4AAFO9b?format=jpg&name=medium
Yeah I just noted that myself, I think he may gain wind speeds to some extent, this could also alter his path slightly. You can see on NHC wind swatch how much it has expanded since he was born, pretty incredible.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:09 pm

A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:12 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_10

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_11

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:12 pm

amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb
Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.What are the cahnces he coms inside the bench mark? Or is that totally off the table? My guess is its unlikely but they still do not have 0% for a bit N and west of NYC on east.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb
Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.

Ah yes sorry but still gonna bring minor affects to the shores

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:16 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb
Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.

Ah yes sorry but still gonna bring minor affects to the shores
Not to say that the new GFS isnt useless either, none of the models handled this completely right.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:02 pm

Surface winds backnup to 114mph.
NG for Ga through OBX - gonna have a bigly storm surge there.
He's strengthening and it is not good for the areas.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:06 pm

Landfall gonna happen in NC, Euro a bit more west.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:09 pm

amugs wrote:Landfall  gonna happen in NC, Euro a bit more west.
where do you get the 18z euro? or do you mean the 12z is west?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:09 pm

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1169406439124848641/photo/12019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 1

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:10 pm

Jman, got it from Maue

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:15 pm

amugs wrote:Jman, got it from Maue
ahh okay, yeah im not surprised at this in fact he may go up fairly significantly, need watch.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:48 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Img_2037

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:09 pm

amugs wrote:https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1169406439124848641/photo/12019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 1
that. Does not look for the Wilmington to Beaufort who was hit hard last year
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3753
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:02 pm

Dorian is a 115mph cat 3 again. Oh boy.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:04 am

Weakening this am.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:07 am

sroc4 wrote:Weakening this am.  


Looks like a dry air intrusion

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Goes16_ir_05L_201909051242

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8331
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:32 pm

Last dog in this fight for me is whether this thing makes an official landfall along the NC coast or not. My initial thinking was “close, but no cigar”, but if it does, I really can’t be all that mad haha if it does, my mean track error from 6-10 days out (relative to storm’s trek offshore of the Southeast Coast) will have been ~55 nm. If it doesn’t, that error drops to ~30 nm. Very pleased and proud of this forecast. Enough of that, now, onto the next forecast!

Also, great discussion in here for this event, as per usual! It’s good to see all the posts from you guys, and even better to watch your individual progressions as you continue to learn more with each passing event!! I/we love it!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6893
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by hyde345 Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:12 pm

Landfall did officially happen this morning at Cape Hatteras(by a hair) as a Cat 1. Highest wind gust was reported to be 96 mph. Eastern Long Island and the Cape Cod will probably see tropical storm wind gusts later today and tonight.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:00 pm

Just another example of how 50-100 miles makes a world of difference along the east coast. Here’s how close this came to having (significant) direct impacts on NJ:2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 F8799910
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4470
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:23 pm

We have family friends that live 10 minutes from Morehead City and Emerald Isle in either direction..They are doing good...lucky. Now I do not understand why anyone would stay on Oakracoke Island?? we went and it rained and the place flooded and that was a normal rain storm...they told them to evacuate and now I see on the news 200 people are stranded and waiting for the coast guard...that is ridiculous!!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3753
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:21 pm

It is breezy here. It must be due to Dorian nothing else reason why it's so gusty out. Rain bands knocking 9n rockaways.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20517
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:It is breezy here. It must be due to Dorian nothing else reason why it's so gusty out. Rain bands knocking 9n rockaways.
it is due to Dorian.. winds currently here are 13 mph nne and gusts over 20 mph....small craft advisory as well...and pouring rain...glad this is a couple of hundred miles off shore..heard rip currents will be vicious this weekend..and ny will not allow anyone in the water..have not heard for down here though..feels like October instead of beginning of Sept currently 61 degrees
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3753
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 13 of 17 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum