2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Dorian appears to be nudging west on each GFS and Euro run recently, so at least eastern areas may experience some moderate TS conditions, if these movements continue it may get into the NYC area not much of a big shift will cause this to happen, something to watch for friday and saturday, my guess is how far he gets inland in NC will determine how far NW he gets along the coast. He is going to expand greatly so TS wind field will be huge compared to now.

Joe Snow wrote:Getting Busy out in the Tropics..............

Yep right on cue with the 10th coming up. I think we have a lot going on through end of october. GFS lost the storm on 18th last 2 runs but thats to be expected, probably wont bring it back for 4-5 days if at all.

Likely GFS has seen the huge drop in the forecast for that system coming off africa, went from 90% to 50%, do not see a lot of promise in that.

Dorian is regaining strength and his eye wall - look at the bright redish and orangy cloud tops and his wind field on the western flank is expanding

amugs wrote:Dorian is regaining strength and his eye wall - look at the bright redish and orangy cloud tops and his wind field on the western flank is expanding

Yeah I just noted that myself, I think he may gain wind speeds to some extent, this could also alter his path slightly. You can see on NHC wind swatch how much it has expanded since he was born, pretty incredible.

A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur

amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur

Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.What are the cahnces he coms inside the bench mark? Or is that totally off the table? My guess is its unlikely but they still do not have 0% for a bit N and west of NYC on east.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur

Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.

Ah yes sorry but still gonna bring minor affects to the shores

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur

Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.

Ah yes sorry but still gonna bring minor affects to the shores

Not to say that the new GFS isnt useless either, none of the models handled this completely right.

Surface winds backnup to 114mph.
NG for Ga through OBX - gonna have a bigly storm surge there.
He's strengthening and it is not good for the areas.

Landfall gonna happen in NC, Euro a bit more west.

amugs wrote:Landfall  gonna happen in NC, Euro a bit more west.

where do you get the 18z euro? or do you mean the 12z is west?

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1169406439124848641/photo/1

Jman, got it from Maue

amugs wrote:Jman, got it from Maue

ahh okay, yeah im not surprised at this in fact he may go up fairly significantly, need watch.

amugs wrote:https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1169406439124848641/photo/1

that. Does not look for the Wilmington to Beaufort who was hit hard last year

Dorian is a 115mph cat 3 again. Oh boy.

Weakening this am.

sroc4 wrote:Weakening this am.  

Looks like a dry air intrusion

Last dog in this fight for me is whether this thing makes an official landfall along the NC coast or not. My initial thinking was “close, but no cigar”, but if it does, I really can’t be all that mad haha if it does, my mean track error from 6-10 days out (relative to storm’s trek offshore of the Southeast Coast) will have been ~55 nm. If it doesn’t, that error drops to ~30 nm. Very pleased and proud of this forecast. Enough of that, now, onto the next forecast!

Also, great discussion in here for this event, as per usual! It’s good to see all the posts from you guys, and even better to watch your individual progressions as you continue to learn more with each passing event!! I/we love it!!

Landfall did officially happen this morning at Cape Hatteras(by a hair) as a Cat 1. Highest wind gust was reported to be 96 mph. Eastern Long Island and the Cape Cod will probably see tropical storm wind gusts later today and tonight.

Just another example of how 50-100 miles makes a world of difference along the east coast. Here’s how close this came to having (significant) direct impacts on NJ:

We have family friends that live 10 minutes from Morehead City and Emerald Isle in either direction..They are doing good...lucky. Now I do not understand why anyone would stay on Oakracoke Island?? we went and it rained and the place flooded and that was a normal rain storm...they told them to evacuate and now I see on the news 200 people are stranded and waiting for the coast guard...that is ridiculous!!

It is breezy here. It must be due to Dorian nothing else reason why it's so gusty out. Rain bands knocking 9n rockaways.

jmanley32 wrote:It is breezy here. It must be due to Dorian nothing else reason why it's so gusty out. Rain bands knocking 9n rockaways.

it is due to Dorian.. winds currently here are 13 mph nne and gusts over 20 mph....small craft advisory as well...and pouring rain...glad this is a couple of hundred miles off shore..heard rip currents will be vicious this weekend..and ny will not allow anyone in the water..have not heard for down here though..feels like October instead of beginning of Sept currently 61 degrees