2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Projecting Dorian to strengthen to cat 2 ...Nova Scotia in for a rough time..they might have a direct hit

Wind gusts at Little Egg Harborb this evening was 73mph.
20th time frame needs to be watched for anothenrpossible trop cyclone to affect US east coast

amugs wrote:Wind gusts at Little Egg Harborb this evening was 73mph.
20th time frame needs to be watched for anothenrpossible trop cyclone to affect US east coast

Great minds think alike, mugsy haha I saw tonight’s 00z GFS Ensemble and my eyebrows instantly went up lol while I will wait to do further spelunking before putting any further and firmer thoughts out there, if nothing else, the upper-air pattern reminds me of one that could be very Donna-esque at first and quick glance.

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Wind gusts at Little Egg Harborb this evening was 73mph.
20th time frame needs to be watched for anothenrpossible trop cyclone to affect US east coast

Great minds think alike, mugsy haha I saw tonight’s 00z GFS Ensemble and my eyebrows instantly went up lol while I will wait to do further spelunking before putting any further and firmer thoughts out there, if nothing else, the upper-air pattern reminds me of one that could be very Donna-esque at first and quick glance.

BOOOMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Wind gusts at Little Egg Harborb this evening was 73mph.
20th time frame needs to be watched for anothenrpossible trop cyclone to affect US east coast

Great minds think alike, mugsy haha I saw tonight’s 00z GFS Ensemble and my eyebrows instantly went up lol while I will wait to do further spelunking before putting any further and firmer thoughts out there, if nothing else, the upper-air pattern reminds me of one that could be very Donna-esque at first and quick glance.

rb, just wanted to say you nailed Dorian! I followed all your posts day's before the storm made landfall and your accuracy was excellent!

So what do you guys think? I know its far down the line and not sure its even a marked area yet on NHC but will the next system on GFS pose a threat to our area possibly? I imagine all we might know if anything is that it COULD pose a threat to the EC, its now appearing like 25th time frame though.

jmanley32 wrote:So what do you guys think? I know its far down the line and not sure its even a marked area yet on NHC but will the next system on GFS pose a threat to our area possibly?  I imagine all we might know if anything is that it COULD pose a threat to the EC, its now appearing  like 25th time frame though.

Jon I wouldn’t look at the gfs or euro beyond day 5-7 to try and identify the next threat. Look at the 200mb VP maps. When you see the blues over the western Atlantic that’s your tip on the time frame to look. I believe Mugs and Rob already mentioned the time to look for. 20th-25th this map is showing the time to watch for development. Obv this map can change as we get in close but this is the time to watch. Last time we had this look on this map 2weeks out we got Dorian and a few other named storms. Look back in this thread around the 19th when I posted.

docstox12 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Wind gusts at Little Egg Harborb this evening was 73mph.
20th time frame needs to be watched for anothenrpossible trop cyclone to affect US east coast

Great minds think alike, mugsy haha I saw tonight’s 00z GFS Ensemble and my eyebrows instantly went up lol while I will wait to do further spelunking before putting any further and firmer thoughts out there, if nothing else, the upper-air pattern reminds me of one that could be very Donna-esque at first and quick glance.

rb, just wanted to say you nailed Dorian! I followed all your posts day's before the storm made landfall and your accuracy was excellent!

Thanks, Doc!! I’m definitely proud of that forecast, but there was a lot of luck involved, too haha

jmanley32 wrote:So what do you guys think? I know its far down the line and not sure its even a marked area yet on NHC but will the next system on GFS pose a threat to our area possibly?  I imagine all we might know if anything is that it COULD pose a threat to the EC, its now appearing  like 25th time frame though.

Personally, I won’t be able to comment much for the next couple of days. My forecasting for Dorian led me to use 3x my monthly data (since I was on vacation and used my cell phone’s cellular data to forecast because we don’t have a computer or internet down here), and I’m about to eclipse my fourth multiplier if I keep checking the threads/forums when I’m not in my apartment.......needless to say mamma rb is less than enthused ahahahaha oh well. NO SACRIFCE, NO VICTORY!!! Lmao I will do my best to comment when/if I can, though lol

[[url=img]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1170671122360094720?s=09[/img]]img]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1170671122360094720?s=09[/img][/url]

rb924119 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Wind gusts at Little Egg Harborb this evening was 73mph.
20th time frame needs to be watched for anothenrpossible trop cyclone to affect US east coast

Great minds think alike, mugsy haha I saw tonight’s 00z GFS Ensemble and my eyebrows instantly went up lol while I will wait to do further spelunking before putting any further and firmer thoughts out there, if nothing else, the upper-air pattern reminds me of one that could be very Donna-esque at first and quick glance.

rb, just wanted to say you nailed Dorian! I followed all your posts day's before the storm made landfall and your accuracy was excellent!

Thanks, Doc!! I’m definitely proud of that forecast, but there was a lot of luck involved, too haha

rb, it's the same when I use my technical analyses indicators in my trading operations with various investments.When some luck gets thrown in, you nail it!

Peeps,
Buckle up for the final stretch of this hcane season - back end season from the looks of the maps - lower pressure s over the MDR region and Caribbean, High Pressure system that presses in teh western Atlantic, high pressure system over SE Canada and a trough in the west.
Could see some LR tracking trop storms and some home grown in close ones.
Gulf coast and Eastern Seaboard needs to be aware as we move into late next week through...............midish October(?) possibly late October.

And the humanitarian crises that has unfolded in the Bahamas especially Abco and Grand Bahama Islands is absolutely horrible. There are reports from eye witnesses and people who made video of dead bodies strewn along roads, no law ro order, no food or water, people sleeping in the streets, just horrible conditions. Reports of cholera, unidentifiable rashes and an environmental disaster is happening to. The main Islands oil storage facility had the steel tops rip off and damaged in otehr ways during the storm - you know the ones we see along the arm pit of teh NJ Turnpike - the 100000 gallon plus reservoirs of oil are leaking and there is oil all over the land and into the seas. And it is all being denied.

Look at this video just incredibly sad
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/dorian-recovery-dire-as-supplies-dwindle-in-bahamas/

From the Bahama Press National Newspaper

BP BREAKING| The bodies of Hurricane Dorian victims loaded off a plane from the Abacos. More than 3,000 are feared dead.



Looting and violence rampant as well with 6 persons being killed via homicide in Freeport.

In the two seconds I was looking at ensembles, I think anything beyond Day 5 cannot be taken literally. The ensembles are NOT catching things and are not making synoptic sense, so expect a highly volatile period of modeling during the 6-10 period and beyond across the board. As soon as I have internet access I will explain.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So what do you guys think? I know its far down the line and not sure its even a marked area yet on NHC but will the next system on GFS pose a threat to our area possibly?  I imagine all we might know if anything is that it COULD pose a threat to the EC, its now appearing  like 25th time frame though.

Jon I wouldn’t look at the gfs or euro beyond day 5-7 to try and identify the next threat. Look at the 200mb VP maps. When you see the blues over the western Atlantic that’s your tip on the time frame to look. I believe Mugs and Rob already mentioned the time to look for.  20th-25th this map is showing the time to watch for development.  Obv this map can change as we get in close but this is the time to watch. Last time we had this look on this map 2weeks out we got Dorian and a few other named storms. Look back in this thread around the 19th when I posted.

Yea..this is super interesting. Not coincidence models are showing a nice ridge over the east coast during that time. Paves the way for 'something' to come up...

Let's see where we are by this time next week. Still very early.

I know I'm not supposed to look at surface gfs but mog 12z gfs...hurricanr takes up entire western Atlantic!!!

Thank you for the prayers last week but sadly my mother in law just passed away. Very sad lots going on as she was Jewish. Has be very quick.

jmanley32 wrote:Thank you for the prayers last week but sadly my mother in law just passed away. Very sad lots going on as she was Jewish. Has be very quick.

So very sorry. Condolences.

jmanley32 wrote:Thank you for the prayers last week but sadly my mother in law just passed away. Very sad lots going on as she was Jewish. Has be very quick.

Sorry for your loss Jman.

Jman so sorry for your families loss.

So sorry Jon. Thoughts an Prayers buddy for you, your wife, and your family

Sorry for your loss Jman

Doing a little preliminary investigation, and based on what I’m seeing right now (more analysis to come either tomorrow or Wednesday), I think the next *notable* threat very well could be for the Mid-Atlantic states (North Carolina to New Jersey range) for Day 10 and beyond. Note that doesn’t necessarily mean a landfall, and I also will be doing a more thorough analysis when I’m well-rested with firmer wording and much more detail, but that is my highly preliminary thinking based on what I am seeing right now.

Wow, Jman. I’m so sorry to hear. Just remember we are all here for you, and so are your other friends and family they never really leave unless they leave your heart. Remember that.

Prayers Jman for comfort and support for you and the family.