2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Nothing is off the table some model show it going right through Florida back into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast there so many scenarios so I have to keep an eye on everything and see what happens in the next couple days with models

Can’t post the image, but the 06z EURO/Ensemble is very much in line with my thinking........too bad it’s 06z lmao

Beware the windshield wiper effect lol

@jmanley32 wrote:

@rb924119 wrote:Beware the windshield wiper effect lol

Yes Bernie, lol

Lmaoooo well, it’s true! Haha and weathermaps.com, maybe? Idk, I saw them on a different board and am just relaying haha

They are showing it making landfall as a Cat.4.around vero beach, but the cone encompasses basically the whole state of Florida up to central Georgia. Looks like a slow mover too which isn't good.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/severeweather/hurricanes?hurricane=2019-dorian&ocid=SK2HDHP

I'm sure this is going to stir up some controversy.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/publix-makes-hurricane-cookie-cake-as-dorian-looms/ar-AAGvQ2x?ocid=SK2HDHP

Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so.

@billg315 wrote:Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so.

The goofus model. Im with you but im not seeing this up here yet. The forecast pathbis all over the place. Most of them take it northeast after Florida instead of North.

@billg315 wrote:Ok, maybe I'll end up with egg on my face, but I'll say it anyway: If the 12z GFS is accurate, I'll eat my hat.

It shows Dorian make landfall in Florida, spend about three days over Florida/GA, exit the coast, regenerate, hit the Carolinas, exit the coast again, regenerate, and hit the Delmarva and South Jersey (actually just off the coast of SNJ), and not leave the east coast until Sept. 12, TWO WEEKS from now. Not happening. I know Sandy made a crazy left turn and everyone said that never would happen before it did . . . but at the risk of making that same mistake I'll say, this never would happen. In other words, this runs shows a hurricane that effectively affects every major point on the east coast lasting for a ten day period. Sure. lol. Dorian can prove me wrong. Apparently she has two weeks to do so.

While I personally don’t think the circulation makes it this far north, I think the idea is still valid; though I think the timeline is not. However, to play devil’s advocate here, Hurricane Donna was the only storm in recorded history to bring urricaje force winds to every state along the East Coast from Florida to Maine, so it can happen :p

In my mind a hurricane/tropical system affecting the entire coast would most likely do so over about a two day period. These things tend to move quickly once they get north of Florida. But yes, I suppose anything is possible in terms of track. Possible being the operative word.

recon 973??