December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

The ECMWF OP continues to put me in Albany near the jackpot zone:

Winter storm watches starting to pop up in PA and NYS now.

Yep doc got one here with 9 inches or more of snow and sleet!

NAM showing colder WAA advextion so far on the initial batch ,picking up the CAD signal. Heavy burst of snow the ice ice baby

Just popped up. We shall see...

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
329 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

...LONG DURATION WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-061-062-105-301000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0006.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-
Northampton-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown,
Bethlehem, Easton, Chalfont, and Perkasie
329 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to
one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult throughout this period.
The hazardous conditions could impact holiday return travel on
Sunday and the commute periods on Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration storm with two
main periods of winter weather. Conditions on Sunday are
expected to consist of a mix of snow, sleet, and ice, with snow
accumulations under 2 inches. A lull in precipitation is
possible Sunday evening. Most of the snow that is forecast is
then expected to occur later Sunday night and Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

WSW are flying now most of NJ by Mt Holly not by Upton of course

Mount Holly NWS for Central NJ:
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult throughout this period. The hazardous conditions could impact holiday return travel on Sunday and the commute periods on Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration storm with two main periods of winter weather. Conditions on Sunday are expected to consist of a mix of snow, sleet, and ice, with snow accumulations under 2 inches. A lull in precipitation is
possible Sunday evening. Most of the snow that is forecast is
then expected to occur later Sunday night and Monday.

Man the forecasted snow amounts in some of these watches being issued by the NWS are high IMO. Rain and sleet will keep accumulations down. Especially in the city and points south. Ill review everything in more detail later.

I see ice being a threat on the front end. Maybe an inch of snow on front end as the 700 MB temps are going to be torchy. It'll be a mod/heavy and then start mixing. The bigger snows are only possible for most if the coastal develops lower latitude, intensifies and slows down. Other than that don't see much more than 1" IMBY.

@Frank_Wx wrote:Man the forecasted snow amounts in some of these watches being issued by the NWS are high IMO. Rain and sleet will keep accumulations down. Especially in the city and points south. Ill review everything in more detail later.

Frank, they have me in a range of 4 to 10 inches ATM.

Wwa for 8 to 12 in Westchester. Idk about that

From Upton: Winter Storm Watches in blue, which means they’re leaning toward advisory level impacts in the tan areas (at the moment anyway)...

Just popped in to see what is going on...I am glad my "she shed" is finally coming tom! Our 4 to 6 week turn around time turned into 8...I know we probably won't get much on the coast here..but I can sit in my empty shed and watch whatever falls fall!! come on snow...

@frank 638 wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:From Upton: Winter Storm Watches in blue, which means they’re leaning toward advisory level impacts in the tan areas (at the moment anyway)...

If I end up with 3 to 5 inches worth of snow I’ll be very happy I know it doesn’t seem a lot tomorrow I am putting my Christmas decorations up at least it will feel Christmas is coming

can I ask..what does the yellow stand for?

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@frank 638 wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:From Upton: Winter Storm Watches in blue, which means they’re leaning toward advisory level impacts in the tan areas (at the moment anyway)...

If I end up with 3 to 5 inches worth of snow I’ll be very happy I know it doesn’t seem a lot tomorrow I am putting my Christmas decorations up at least it will feel Christmas is coming

can I ask..what does the yellow stand for?

Happy Thanksgiving Joanne, it stands for Hazardous Weather Outlook, should be changing by tonight or tomorrow

So I just listened to a webcast with meteorologist Joe Cioffi (formerly of Fios and pix11) and Bill Goodman (from NWS Upton). Bill mentioned that it is a holiday weekend at Upton and he's not sure when the decisions will be made to put out advisories or warnings. Sounds like they may be late in coming, not that they post them early enough anyway....

@weatherwatchermom wrote:

@frank 638 wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:From Upton: Winter Storm Watches in blue, which means they’re leaning toward advisory level impacts in the tan areas (at the moment anyway)...

If I end up with 3 to 5 inches worth of snow I’ll be very happy I know it doesn’t seem a lot tomorrow I am putting my Christmas decorations up at least it will feel Christmas is coming

can I ask..what does the yellow stand for?

It a hazardous weather outlook statement - just gives a heads up writing of what days 2-7 could incur weather wise.
UPTON is like molasses to pull teh trigger due to NYC. They are ultra conservative on putting up any watches or warning for that matter until all NWS stations have done so hours before.

AND the GOOFUS FIBNALLY CAVES !!! Madonne this model can be so stubborn at times even with its new platform! For weenie eye candy

Happy Thanksgiving Joanne, it stands for Hazardous Weather Outlook, should be changing by tonight or tomorrow[/quote]

Happy Thanksgiving to you too, Janet! Thank you!! I do hope we get in the action down here!! Have a great night

Really not looking to great for LI and NYC. Just a hair inland is a different story