December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Personally, I would not set high expectations for this system, folks. I don’t think this system will be much of a winter event based on what I’m seeing, but hey, I’ll still track it!

While I think I know where your at, care to elaborate a little?  

Doing this from mobile for a third time is annoying, but because I love you guys, I’ll forward the cliff notes version

The below is a post from Armando’s board in response to if my reason why is because it will be too warm:

“Yes, but that’s only part of it. The trajectory of the system as well as how I expect this trajectory to evolve as a result of the ambient hemispheric synoptics are the others. I have posted more technical discussion over on 33 if you’re there, but basically the evolution of this system is not one that is auspicious for significant winter weather for our area in my opinion. Storms that come from the west are almost always overmodeled in their precipitation fields, only to seemingly disappear as lead time decreases. This is supported when you look at mid-level streamflow, which depicts your “deep” moisture source to be almost exclusively from the Pacific. This then gets downsloped over the Rockies with very little additional moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic. Secondarily, this system reaches maturity over the Upper Midwest, and then slowly decays as it continues east-southeastward. So, while it presents itself as a “classic bowling ball” low, in reality, almost all of the dynamics associated with a more classic deepening/maturing cyclone through the column, one that actively is closing off south and/or east of our area, will be non-existent. The mid-levels are not organized enough to support this, and the window of *temporary* reorganization is very small given the progressive nature of the system. Third, when you look at the state of the ambient synoptic atmosphere/ocean couplet, it supports less of a suppressing effect on this system, which makes me think that we end up seeing it pass directly over or even slightly north of our area. This does two things: 1. Prevents us from being in any favorable location for any remaining dynamics to assist in precipitation rates/thermal profiles, as we will get dry slotted. 2. Allow for the stale Pacific air that this system is bringing with it to dominate, as the warm advection out ahead of this would be not be countered. This leads me to additional points that because this system starts so far north/west, the effects of the frontrunning warm advection will be enhanced for us, and without any fresh injection of cold air from a northern stream system, we have no real way to mitigate it in-situ. Secondly, once you get through the initial warm advection surge, conditions will be generally unsettled with showery type precipitation and generally “milder” conditions as the mid- and low-level lows pass overhead.”

I think today’s 12z EURO Op was pretty close in its depiction of sensible effects at the surface, though I fear it could even get a little worse than that by the time it’s over. If you want me to diagnose further, though, let me know, but I think that you can synthesize the details I left out regarding the synoptic hemispheric/oceanic alignments haha

So sorry oh mighty Ray. For I do not mean to trouble you. I know how difficult it can be to “copy and paste”, especially for a third time. I hope your not experiencing any pronounced carpal tunnel as a result. That said I appreciate the analysis.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Personally, I would not set high expectations for this system, folks. I don’t think this system will be much of a winter event based on what I’m seeing, but hey, I’ll still track it!

ok so last time u were wrong so sorry but hope that happens again this time lol. Ur still smart but I oh so want you to be wrong.

How was I wrong last time? Lol there were “surprise” snow totals all the way down into Putnam county and into Connecticut. Even NW NJ had some snow out of that. I was never supposed to make it into the city. That said, I never did issue an official forecast so I guess it’s a mute point. But all that said, part of me hopes I’m wrong too, and no hard feelings hahaha :p

Wasnt there a system where you said you had egg on your face? I could sworn I saw that which also made me laugh cuz this is not a exact science. And yes you were partially right, no one can get it exact, if they did that would be amazing.