December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

Quick update.  Not thrilled at some of the subtle trends regarding the blocking features I outlined, although also not that surprised again given some of my concerns outlined above.  

That said an initial over running event for snow on Sunday is possible.  Details still too far out...and dont look away from Monday yet either...not dead yet.    

And Ray it did come off a little snarky when I first read through it (knee jerk reaction), but your right I know you well enough now to know what it was all about.  I was playing snarky back at ya. All good in the hood.

If the primary doesn't transfer sooner (Delmarva), then coastal won't be much white stuff for most folks. Yesterday models showed a better ridge pushing down on the low forcing it lower latitude and allowing for transfer at more favorable latitude. This allowed colder air for better WAA snows as well as some some snows from coastal low.

I would set my over/under at an inch for now for most folks. Can't get much lower than that so no disappointment.

@hyde345 wrote:GFS is having some problems with this system IMO. 24 hours or so ago it was doing a loop with the secondary low. Some accumulating snow is still on the table for people 50 miles N and W with some rain and sleet also likely. Thermal profiles are tricky and we are still 4 days away. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I agree more significant accumulations N&W of 95 are more likely and it's not a dead threat yet IMO.  Coastal redevelopment 100 or even 50 miles south and east will have significant implications on the forecast and this is quite possible with a 50/50 low in the mix.  Moreover, at 5 days out model error is way too high to throw the towel in.  Just have to see the next few days.

Hopefully we all get snow for everyone this Saturday day I am putting up my Christmas lights it would look nice to see snow for Sunday

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Eps looks good

That’s a healthy average. I wonder if big hitters are skewing mean. We shall see how things look tomorrow.

The primary is hanging on too long on the latest mode runs. By the time the secondary develops off the coast our boundary temps are torched.

The blocking has trended weaker too. Considering the -NAO was/is the number one signal we need on our side in this setup that is not good.

Let’s see where we stand tomorrow. But confidence down tremendously today.

@SoulSingMG wrote:Latest Euro is gung-snow, even down to the City, Long Island, N NJ (control top, mean bottom). We’re still a ways off from this potential storm so expect the ‘windshield wiper’ effect across the models til at least late Saturday.

12z ICON is also snowy

The latitude of the H5 is good.  Trough tilt a little positive, would like to see more neutral/neg to throw back the snows better.  i think something like this would get it done for a lot of folks.  Cutoff ULL can meander a bit. The GFS was showing this two days ago.