December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
CMC, Euro, Ukie all give northern areas big snows. I'm not completely sold on that because a lot of that is sleet but I think we get a plowable snow after all is said. Even GFS gives me 6 inches as upper level low tracks south and east of area.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Where do I sign in the LHV?
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
hyde345 wrote:CMC, Euro, Ukie all give northern areas big snows. I'm not completely sold on that because a lot of that is sleet but I think we get a plowable snow after all is said. Even GFS gives me 6 inches as upper level low tracks south and east of area.
hyde345, if we get 6 out of this I will be happy.Great early season snow that would be.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Dont fall asleep on this just yet. Obviously it’s all relative to where you live. Coastal peeps don’t fall asleep either. North shore vs south shore of LI could be singing diff tunes even.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Even the forecast temps both highs and lows on weather.com changed overnight, skewing lower.
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Good Lawd! The King has spoke!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Jesus models at 12z went nuts. Even GFS trended in the right direction.
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
We have ourselves a bigly tacking storm upcoming here peeps - a Thanksgiving miracle!!
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
amugs wrote:We have ourselves a bigly tacking storm upcoming here peeps - a Thanksgiving miracle!!
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum
A lot of people of have talked about that having an effect on the winter weather. One met said that the solar minimums coincided with winters like 95/96 and some other big producers. Maybe something to that?
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Details Frank... DETAILS!! lol
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
heehaw453 wrote:amugs wrote:We have ourselves a bigly tacking storm upcoming here peeps - a Thanksgiving miracle!!
The evolution synoptically is very interesting and analog is well.. not an analog to compare - welcome to the new weather in a Grand Solar Minimum
A lot of people of have talked about that having an effect on the winter weather. One met said that the solar minimums coincided with winters like 95/96 and some other big producers. Maybe something to that?
haw I have been investigating ad following for sometime now nd will do a post later not to clog this up but 95/96 was a small solar minimum compared to this one I mean a like a pebble compared to a Mount Washington ways.
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The H5 evolutions are aligning among the models and surface depictions are starting to catch up IMO.
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
This will trend even better I have a feeling coastal areas will get it good
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Busy all day love to come see exciting euro!! Maybe have leave ct Saturday. What's the timing on this?
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
no m word yet? Maybe tomorrow if this continues lol. Reel it in Frank!! So I'm guessing the bad look u spoke of earlier has trended much better? 18z gfs gives me 6 plus!Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus models at 12z went nuts. Even GFS trended in the right direction.
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
I know it’s early and things could change Janice from channel 4 news has the city 1 to 3 inches of snow 3 to 5 north and west of the city it’s getting Exciting bring omg the
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Hwo issued taking about a slow moving storm lasting over 24 hrs! Sunday afternoon to Monday night. But a change to rain they saying for coast. Omg can u imagine if it snowed entire time!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Man, I tune out to spend a few Thanksgiving hours with family and all heck breaks loose. Lol. JMan, it really is a two part event: the overrunning event ahead of the low on Sunday with snow changing to rain; then the low developing and strengthening off the coast Monday wrapping snow in behind it from Monday AM through Monday evening. That is the main snow maker. But still a few days off, so let’s track and see how it develops.
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Oh my goodness was so busy with family ..did not even think about weather the last 2 days....I am glad we have something to teack.!!hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!!
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
A thing of beauty
"Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
716 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019
CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-300030-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
716 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Confidence is increasing in a slow moving low pressure system
bringing snow and wintry mix to the region Sunday through Monday
Night. There is potential for several inches of snowfall during this
time period, causing significant travel impacts to the Sunday
afternoon/evening through Monday Night commutes. Read the Ode.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed."
"Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
716 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019
CTZ005-006-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-300030-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
716 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Confidence is increasing in a slow moving low pressure system
bringing snow and wintry mix to the region Sunday through Monday
Night. There is potential for several inches of snowfall during this
time period, causing significant travel impacts to the Sunday
afternoon/evening through Monday Night commutes. Read the Ode.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed."
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Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Being three days out there are most likely going to be +/- 50-100 mile differences in the ULL track. People along and north of Rt 80 are in the good spot ATTM. Note the trough tilt in upper picture is more neutral (bigger snows) but ULL is just a hair north and less consolidated than the bottom one.
My bottom line is some people are going to get a lot of snow, and the ULL track is the big difference maker. That track can even fluctuate 24 hours beforehand. Buckle up.
Old
My bottom line is some people are going to get a lot of snow, and the ULL track is the big difference maker. That track can even fluctuate 24 hours beforehand. Buckle up.
Old
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Holy euro...it doesn't really change to rain as much coasties even see a few inches and just 20 miles inland up to 8 to 12. Doc and those well north see Godzilla totals. Need this just a tad south of 00z and everyone sees one heck of a Dec snowstorm which we haven't seen in a long time.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential
Is this an overrunning or two part event with the first wave coming through Sunday and then the storm developing off the coast and that’s the main piece of energy that will drive the precip totals? Do we anticipate this to undergo bombogenesis?
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