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December 1st-2nd Winter Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:24 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:6”+ for city on that run. 1 foot as you go to Orange County.

988 mb low 100 East of Toms River. Hmm. I’d take my chances with that.

Yup, euro is impressive.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 2 1575381600-VBWh0Qlo0sM

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Post by TheAresian Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:28 pm

The far west forecast depends on where one falls on a very sharp gradient. Less than 10 miles could be the difference between 1.5" of snow with sleet and ice and a decent 6" snowfall. For myself, I'm not hopeful but I'm happy to see the white gold come to so many so soon.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:39 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:6”+ for city on that run. 1 foot as you go to Orange County.

988 mb low 100 East of Toms River. Hmm. I’d take my chances with that.
can I ask what you mean by this comment? Smile
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:6”+ for city on that run. 1 foot as you go to Orange County.

988 mb low 100 East of Toms River. Hmm. I’d take my chances with that.

Yup, euro is impressive.

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oh now I see that puts you in heavier snow Smile
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Post by amugs Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:43 pm

Euro is a bomb for the N&W, ULL ticked SE. The CMC, RGEM, UKIE and EURO all on board with this ULL placement SE of where it was at 0z.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:43 pm

Of course euro has the 6 inch line curve around my area lol I can't win. I know just model run and honestly 5 inches at this PT is good anything more would be great.
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Post by frank 638 Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:58 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Of course euro has the 6 inch line curve around my area lol I can't win. I know just model run and honestly 5 inches at this PT is good anything more would be great.
lol Don’t feel so bad in my area and Throgs neck they have me 4 inches meanwhile in the south Bronx they have almost 7” 3 inches difference LOL

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Euro is a bomb for the N&W, ULL  ticked SE.  The CMC, RGEM, UKIE and EURO all on board with this ULL placement SE of where it was at 0z.

Yes. SE and more intensification. You would think models have a better handle now. Probably comes down to location where deformation sets up. Hard to nail that down.

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Post by dsix85 Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:04 pm

Sroc I’m in Manorville, what are you thinking now based on this run for our neck of the woods ?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:23 pm

Scott I hope you do get 3-6 cuz that means I will get at least 3-6, but you could see more than me if the storm xeepens as the snow pulls east and you change sooner and last longer, it seems quite complex.I do not like the idea that we have to wait and see, if this starts midday monday with the snow part thats going to be like nov. last year all over again, kids at school and if they call the busses then the parents have to find a way to get to our school and if they can't well I dunno what happens.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 30, 2019 3:59 pm

18Z NAM shows rather long duration snows once the coastal low really takes over. Anyone I 78 +/- few miles could get in on some deformation zones which will give you some healthy snow totals.

Models are showing this: Euro, Ukie, Nam, and even GFS to some extent.

Surprises will be had most likely one way or the other.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:05 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM shows rather long duration snows once the coastal low really takes over.  Anyone I 78 +/- few miles could get in on some deformation zones which will give you some healthy snow totals.  

Models are showing this: Euro, Ukie, Nam, and even GFS to some extent.

Surprises will be had most likely one way or the other.
Where is westchester NY in comparison to I-78? Sorry do not know my NJ highways. Will that be a benefit to our area or not?
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM shows rather long duration snows once the coastal low really takes over.  Anyone I 78 +/- few miles could get in on some deformation zones which will give you some healthy snow totals.  

Models are showing this: Euro, Ukie, Nam, and even GFS to some extent.

Surprises will be had most likely one way or the other.
Where is westchester NY in comparison to I-78? Sorry do not know my NJ highways.  Will that be a benefit to our area or not?

Your area IMO would be in the zone potential. A storm that moves slowly and intensifies at or slightly south of our latitude can be interesting. These ULL if in the right spot work wonders. I just wish we had a better antecedent air mass (colder) and the initial storm wasn't flooding the mid-levels with warm air. But i'll take 3" gladly this time of the year.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:12 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Sroc I’m in Manorville, what are you thinking now based on this run for our neck of the woods ?

I have my in-laws staying with me so I’ve been spending most of my time entertaining. It’s been tough to really analyze what i would like in the detail of what I’d like. I think Franks map is more than reasonable for our area at this point. But I think we are close enough to the edge where very subtle shifts when it all begins can mean all the difference. I’d say we should temper expectations because any additional shift in the other direction could mean oogatz for us.


Side note. We are all going to the Packers Giants tomorrow and I can’t wait.

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Post by emokid51783 Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:16 pm

Jersey city - as usual its totally up in the air!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:44 pm

NWs just issued a WWA for southern westchester 1-3 sunday only, does not include any advisories for monday, doesnt mention rain on sunday either huh.
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Post by Vinnydula Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:44 pm

Same jman
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Post by Artechmetals Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:47 pm

When are the next model runs of is this the setup ? Can this still change in our favor?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:16 pm

Well I likey this!! I hope its right, would give even southern westchester 10-12, but whats with the right hook of the precip there and the sharp cutoff, is that the small area that could set up? Absolutely insane amounts up north in those circles could see over 2 ft if this is right!! There is a lot of sleet, not sure if NAM has that in with the snow totals but the coast sees very little sleet, its mainly inland.

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Post by billg315 Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:17 pm

Man. Nothing easy about this forecast. So many subtleties that could change a 1-3 to a 3-6 in a heartbeat. Frank referenced a Norlun trough possibility - which I see hints of on the GFS (our least snow friendly model atm). That’s another uncertainty to throw into the mix.
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Post by aiannone Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:20 pm

JEEZ, 18z GFS tracks the low over LI into SECT/Mass
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:21 pm

@aiannone wrote:JEEZ, 18z GFS tracks the low over LI into SECT/Mass
See 18z nam above, much nicer, isnt GFS kinda moot now, isnt it SR model time? Whats odd is the NAM has no snow for me tomorrow or for most of us yet I have a wwa for 1-3 starting at 7am.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:23 pm

Wow!! GFS gives a lot of us zero!! Ziltch zip, yet nam has those same areas in 10+, LOL omg this is go be a nowcast I think.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:28 pm

3km NAM has it still snowing light to moderate early tuesday morning, wow!! Not very impressive totals down to the cast but still 3-5 by this point so maybe add a inch or two for the rest of this. A ton of the northern area is abour 2-3 inches of sleet so if it shows 8 inches of snow I dunno how much would actually be snow.

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Post by hyde345 Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:31 pm

RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.
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