December 1st-2nd Winter Storm

Euro 850s are colder. Low 991 tucked but 0 850 line goes through just north of Trenton nj at hour 48.

6”+ for city on that run. 1 foot as you go to Orange County.

988 mb low 100 East of Toms River. Hmm. I’d take my chances with that.

heehaw453 wrote:6”+ for city on that run. 1 foot as you go to Orange County.

988 mb low 100 East of Toms River. Hmm. I’d take my chances with that.

Yup, euro is impressive.

The far west forecast depends on where one falls on a very sharp gradient. Less than 10 miles could be the difference between 1.5" of snow with sleet and ice and a decent 6" snowfall. For myself, I'm not hopeful but I'm happy to see the white gold come to so many so soon.

Euro is a bomb for the N&W, ULL ticked SE. The CMC, RGEM, UKIE and EURO all on board with this ULL placement SE of where it was at 0z.

Of course euro has the 6 inch line curve around my area lol I can't win. I know just model run and honestly 5 inches at this PT is good anything more would be great.

jmanley32 wrote:Of course euro has the 6 inch line curve around my area lol I can't win. I know just model run and honestly 5 inches at this PT is good anything more would be great.

lol Don’t feel so bad in my area and Throgs neck they have me 4 inches meanwhile in the south Bronx they have almost 7” 3 inches difference LOL

amugs wrote:Euro is a bomb for the N&W, ULL  ticked SE.  The CMC, RGEM, UKIE and EURO all on board with this ULL placement SE of where it was at 0z.

Yes. SE and more intensification. You would think models have a better handle now. Probably comes down to location where deformation sets up. Hard to nail that down.

Sroc I’m in Manorville, what are you thinking now based on this run for our neck of the woods ?

Scott I hope you do get 3-6 cuz that means I will get at least 3-6, but you could see more than me if the storm xeepens as the snow pulls east and you change sooner and last longer, it seems quite complex.I do not like the idea that we have to wait and see, if this starts midday monday with the snow part thats going to be like nov. last year all over again, kids at school and if they call the busses then the parents have to find a way to get to our school and if they can't well I dunno what happens.

18Z NAM shows rather long duration snows once the coastal low really takes over. Anyone I 78 +/- few miles could get in on some deformation zones which will give you some healthy snow totals.

Models are showing this: Euro, Ukie, Nam, and even GFS to some extent.

Surprises will be had most likely one way or the other.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM shows rather long duration snows once the coastal low really takes over.  Anyone I 78 +/- few miles could get in on some deformation zones which will give you some healthy snow totals.  

Models are showing this: Euro, Ukie, Nam, and even GFS to some extent.

Surprises will be had most likely one way or the other.

Where is westchester NY in comparison to I-78? Sorry do not know my NJ highways. Will that be a benefit to our area or not?

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z NAM shows rather long duration snows once the coastal low really takes over.  Anyone I 78 +/- few miles could get in on some deformation zones which will give you some healthy snow totals.  

Models are showing this: Euro, Ukie, Nam, and even GFS to some extent.

Surprises will be had most likely one way or the other.

Where is westchester NY in comparison to I-78? Sorry do not know my NJ highways.  Will that be a benefit to our area or not?

Your area IMO would be in the zone potential. A storm that moves slowly and intensifies at or slightly south of our latitude can be interesting. These ULL if in the right spot work wonders. I just wish we had a better antecedent air mass (colder) and the initial storm wasn't flooding the mid-levels with warm air. But i'll take 3" gladly this time of the year.

dsix85 wrote:Sroc I’m in Manorville, what are you thinking now based on this run for our neck of the woods ?

I have my in-laws staying with me so I’ve been spending most of my time entertaining. It’s been tough to really analyze what i would like in the detail of what I’d like. I think Franks map is more than reasonable for our area at this point. But I think we are close enough to the edge where very subtle shifts when it all begins can mean all the difference. I’d say we should temper expectations because any additional shift in the other direction could mean oogatz for us.


Side note. We are all going to the Packers Giants tomorrow and I can’t wait.

Jersey city - as usual its totally up in the air!

NWs just issued a WWA for southern westchester 1-3 sunday only, does not include any advisories for monday, doesnt mention rain on sunday either huh.

Same jman

When are the next model runs of is this the setup ? Can this still change in our favor?

Well I likey this!! I hope its right, would give even southern westchester 10-12, but whats with the right hook of the precip there and the sharp cutoff, is that the small area that could set up? Absolutely insane amounts up north in those circles could see over 2 ft if this is right!! There is a lot of sleet, not sure if NAM has that in with the snow totals but the coast sees very little sleet, its mainly inland.

Man. Nothing easy about this forecast. So many subtleties that could change a 1-3 to a 3-6 in a heartbeat. Frank referenced a Norlun trough possibility - which I see hints of on the GFS (our least snow friendly model atm). That’s another uncertainty to throw into the mix.

JEEZ, 18z GFS tracks the low over LI into SECT/Mass

aiannone wrote:JEEZ, 18z GFS tracks the low over LI into SECT/Mass

See 18z nam above, much nicer, isnt GFS kinda moot now, isnt it SR model time? Whats odd is the NAM has no snow for me tomorrow or for most of us yet I have a wwa for 1-3 starting at 7am.

Wow!! GFS gives a lot of us zero!! Ziltch zip, yet nam has those same areas in 10+, LOL omg this is go be a nowcast I think.

3km NAM has it still snowing light to moderate early tuesday morning, wow!! Not very impressive totals down to the cast but still 3-5 by this point so maybe add a inch or two for the rest of this. A ton of the northern area is abour 2-3 inches of sleet so if it shows 8 inches of snow I dunno how much would actually be snow.

RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.