December 1st-2nd Winter Storm

hyde345 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Huge difference for NJ and NYC/westchester from 18z to 00z.  Very little snow for most on this board and over a very long period so I doubt much of it sticks at all.



Wow for northern jersey this could be crushing ice storm, the snow map is not snow its ice!! 0.65 yikes!

This is also just 1 model, the 3k, and the storm goes out towards the end of its range. You don't rely on 1 model, especially with this storm.

Oh I know that, just posting what we have so far, rgem not out yet, not sure what else SR you guys wanna look at.

I would use the 3k tomorrow starting at 12z, especially for precip type, not sure about precip amount.

rgem looks a bit better than nam.

Dunnzoo wrote:Sticking with sr models now, I think we're done with the mod range models. It's almost nowcast time....

Agree Janet.Models all over the place.Nowcast time.

Holy check out the front end thump of snow tomorrow according to the RGEM in NNJ. The area does switch to rain, but still...impressive.

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy check out the front end thump of snow tomorrow according to the RGEM in NNJ. The area does switch to rain, but still...impressive.

Snow map thru 2pm tomorrow. Some of this is sleet.

Actually I just looked at the soundings and that is all sleet on the RGEM not snow. The RGEM shows significant icing for portions of NNJ/NW NJ in SW NY throughout the day tomorrow before changing to snow.

GFS is underwhelming

hyde345 wrote:RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.

GFs caved to EURO and other models. But the surface is just wonky. Like the CCB band it is showing but its location looks wonky as the thermal profiles do as well.
SR models picking it up with SE ticks for the LP location. Alsonuppingbtye snow totals for some reas with a crushing CCB band.
Difficult to nail this down but whomever gets under these can see 1-2/3" snowfall rates for a few hours. The duration is gonna be great for us weenies and lots of nowcasting.
Anyone see this bad boy blitzing the UMW?? Holy smokes it's over performing overall. GFS did and poor job with the strength and thermal profile.
RGEM 2" of this is sleet and still snowing at hour 48 healthfully!!

Wow rgem suck lol NYC sees 15 inches while I see 4, how the heck does that happen, not buying these models runs.

I think the front-end snow/sleet will over-perform across the area tomorrow before changing to rain. Most likely, N&W of NYC mainly toward NW NJ never changeover to rain but remain sleet/freezing rain. IMO if there is any concern for ice it would be that general area. A 1-2" event for everyone else late morning/afternoon then we keep an eye on the possible CCB on Monday.

GEM anyone for pure weenie fantasy LOL.

Snows until 5-6am in NYC NYC Metro

Gem Lam Hi Res Canadian model is still snowing at hour 48 with these totals.

Cant upload the picture for some reason argghh
Got it

Yeah probably not going happen 06z nam cut back on totals even up north. It gets very ragged and has a pretty good period where nothing is falling.
Wsw issued all way down to about 15 miles from me or less and 7 to 12 there me...wwa 2 to 4. So 3 to 4x as much snow in a 15 mile ? Is this really go happen that way that's crazy if so. And really stinks.

Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.

docstox12 wrote:Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.

Lol. Love this. Every storm there are bust torpedoes that find their mark. However; occasionally  those bust torpedoes involve higher totals.  Here’s to positive bust torpedo potential Doc!

docstox12 wrote:Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.

Hahaha love the torpedo reference, yeah my daughter is driving back to Red Sox Suck, i told her to wait till this morning instead of driving last night 'cause there was no way it was getting here at 7am

sroc4 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.

Lol. Love this. Every storm there are bust torpedoes that find their mark. However; occasionally  those bust torpedoes involve higher totals.  Here’s to positive bust torpedo potential Doc!

Ok doc, hoping the same happens for all of us on this!

Check out the banding on latest 06Z Rgem.  Man.  

This morning's 6Z Euro ups snow totals for NYC metro...

While the 6Z RGEM is a crusher for peeps just NW of NYC.

The GFS seems extremely disjointed and confused on how to handle the vorticity within the ULL. It has pockets of dry slots or very light precip whereas the NAM seems realistic in the sense you have a coastal low developing, which should promote banding, within a ULL filled with UL energy.

GFS valid 7pm tomorrow



NAM valid 7pm tomorrow



A difference could be how the ULL is positioned. The NAM has it closer to the coast and wrapped tightly whereas the GFS is further east and more 'open' allowing UL energy to escape. The model handling the ULL - upper level low - most accurately will end up a champion.

The RGEM/NAM are showing snowier solutions because of how they are handling the ULL. They promote banding to take hold over the area. Check out 700mb frontogenesis on the latest RGEM. Anyone under those purple circles are seeing snow rates of 2"/hour.

Despite the snowy look on the short range models for the coast I remain pessimistic because of how the 700mb/850mb lows track. They're essentially tracking over our area. This would keep the best banding N-NW of us, and actually prevent Long Island from seeing 850mb temps below freezing unless the CCB sets up over them that could generate dynamic cooling.

Sleet and rain at 27 here in Westchester

Sleet here at 27*