Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:28 pm

3km NAM has it still snowing light to moderate early tuesday morning, wow!! Not very impressive totals down to the cast but still 3-5 by this point so maybe add a inch or two for the rest of this. A ton of the northern area is abour 2-3 inches of sleet so if it shows 8 inches of snow I dunno how much would actually be snow.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 3 Nam-ne10

by **hyde345** Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:31 pm

RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.

by **TheAresian** Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:34 pm

NWS has a WWA here. 4-7" plus .1" of ice. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, I'd gladly give up a few inches of snow to take the ice out of the equation.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:36 pm

hyde345 wrote:RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.

Jeeze did you see how slow it moves off LI on the RGEM!!! WOW, and nice totals even to cast, and its still snowing good and looks to for quite a while after this!

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 3 Rgem_a10

by **hyde345** Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.
Jeeze did you see how slow it moves off LI on the RGEM!!! WOW, and nice totals even to cast, and its still snowing good and looks to for quite a while after this!

Yeah, thats a nice look.

by **aiannone** Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:47 pm

Dew points are super low. 5 degrees at my house. I wonder if the precip comes in as a good thump like WAA precip usually does, we could see a surprise front end like we did last November. The current cold air plus the heavy precip keeps the cold air locked in a bit longer.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:06 pm

Just hoping my drive home tomorrow isn't too difficult. We plan to leave early so we will be driving towards the snow so hopefully arrive before gets too bad. 1st snow no one knows how drive.

by **billg315** Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:13 pm

35* here with a dewpoint around 15*. I expect a few hours of good snow and sleet here Tomorrow AM before the rain. Wouldn’t be surprised to get a couple inches up-front.

As for part two of this: The GFS does seem to be an outlier in its lack of snow. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong; but consensus of other models seems to be a few inches for most people.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:21 pm

Sticking with sr models now, I think we're done with the mod range models. It's almost nowcast time....

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:44 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Sticking with sr models now, I think we're done with the mod range models. It's almost nowcast time....

totally agree and I for one hope the nam and rgem are right. I'm still not under a wsw but I think we very well be later tomorrow.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:31 pm

Critical 00z model runs tonight. We’ve seen a shift south with the axis of heavy snow. The band that is shown to develop over NNJ/NYC is potent and could drop significant snow in a short period of time. How real is this band is the question. We’ll soon find out... not a believer in it just yet.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Critical 00z model runs tonight. We’ve seen a shift south with the axis of heavy snow. The band that is shown to develop over NNJ/NYC is potent and could drop significant snow in a short period of time. How real is this band is the question. We’ll soon find out... not a believer in it just yet.

I would love it to happen, but even seeing tonights model runs a narrow band od snow wouldnt that be impossible to place until it happens? Which models will you be looking at most closely? And is this monday into monday night I am assuming your talking about?

by **billg315** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:05 pm

0z NAM running. Let’s see what it shows.

by **mikeypizano** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:18 pm

billg315 wrote:0z NAM running. Let’s see what it shows.

For me, a sleet and freezing rain spectacular then some snow...

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:19 pm

wow, really bad, look how far inland the rain goes...even doc is looking at rain on this rain or close.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 3 Nam3km15

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:20 pm

Northwestern NY looks like they coulf get 3 ft at the rates being shown up there. My sister is in syracuse.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:22 pm

Wait the lows center from hr 45 to 48 jumps 500-1000 miles out to sea??

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:23 pm

Less than a inch for coast if any at all, well thats a slap in the face from last run, looks like GFS may been right having it all break apart. Guess this answers franks question of it theres a band, there isnt.

by **billg315** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:26 pm

Hmmmmm. Interesting. Very little snow across NNJ/NYC through the day Monday; then it starts snowing late afternoon and continues right through Tuesday morning.

by **billg315** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:27 pm

Only about 2-4” nonetheless.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:29 pm

Hr 35 3km nam still raining up into HV, doesnt look like anything is going to wrap in the cause a good amount of snow, any accumulation per precip type is either ice or frz well inland.

by **billg315** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:29 pm

Well that run didn’t shed much light. Other than to say it’s not coming together for a big event right now. A long event, but not big on accumulation.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:39 pm

Huge difference for NJ and NYC/westchester from 18z to 00z. Very little snow for most on this board and over a very long period so I doubt much of it sticks at all.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 3 Nam-ne12

Wow for northern jersey this could be crushing ice storm, the snow map is not snow its ice!! 0.65 yikes!

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 3 Nam-ne13

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:52 pm

0.23 for me in white plains, that point in westchester is WC airport, thats not good at all.

by **hyde345** Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:58 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Huge difference for NJ and NYC/westchester from 18z to 00z. Very little snow for most on this board and over a very long period so I doubt much of it sticks at all.

Wow for northern jersey this could be crushing ice storm, the snow map is not snow its ice!! 0.65 yikes!

This is also just 1 model, the 3k, and the storm goes out towards the end of its range. You don't rely on 1 model, especially with this storm.

by **jmanley32** Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:00 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Huge difference for NJ and NYC/westchester from 18z to 00z. Very little snow for most on this board and over a very long period so I doubt much of it sticks at all.

Wow for northern jersey this could be crushing ice storm, the snow map is not snow its ice!! 0.65 yikes!

This is also just 1 model, the 3k, and the storm goes out towards the end of its range. You don't rely on 1 model, especially with this storm.

Oh I know that, just posting what we have so far, rgem not out yet, not sure what else SR you guys wanna look at.

by **hyde345** Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:04 pm

I would use the 3k tomorrow starting at 12z, especially for precip type, not sure about precip amount.

by Sponsored content