December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

24, sleet and snow. 1 inch so far.

Temp up to 31.1° with light rain. Roads are a mess.

nothing going on right now..temp up to 36

35* and raining here. Frozen stuff ended about an hour ago - which is good because it was getting icy. Rest of the precip for my area should be rain until late morning tomorrow. Then let’s see what happens.

Sleet has ended cloudy now Ended up with a coating of sleet

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Quick meteorological question. If we are looking at a deformation band somewhere in the area tomorrow, won't that also cause areas around it to possibly become areas to receive less than they would have as the deformation band sucks the moisture form an area around it?

Yes, what you’re referring to is sinking air. When air rises - a result of deformation - atmosphere needs to balance it with sinking air somewhere else so areas around the deform zone are dry slotted.

Lots of precip still working it’s way thru. No one was expected to see consistent snowfall today. I guessed some areas could get 1-2”. I got just less than an inch in Morristown.

What a BRUTAL dry slot on latest model runs from NENJ, NYC, LI into CT.



As mentioned in my discussion this happens when the mid leve centers travel along the coast instead of off the coast.

I have been sitting at my dining room table working most of the day, and observing through my window.  Started here as sleet around 9:30 this morning, bouncing off the roof.  Switched over to snow sometime later in the morning - pretty, quiet flakes.  I’m not sure if it’s doing anything at all right now, but it is very dark and there is a glaze on everything.  Driveway, front walk, and street are coated, grass not so much.  I don’t think it’s measurable yet.

I am on a mountain, so my observations are often quite different from those a mile down the highway.

I have the Christmas tree on, have my outside Christmas lights on, and a fire going in the fireplace (gave up on work about an hour ago), and I can pretend it’s actually closer to Dec. 25.  

Bring it on.  I am psyched for a winter storm with substantial snow!

Deform band over EPA and central/western NJ

Just hit 32.2° and have light rain. Temps have been climbing the last 90 minutes

Frank_Wx wrote:Deform band over EPA and central/western NJ

Frank do you still think 4-8 in the areas you painted? These new model runs are very disconcerting for westchester.

NWS Mount Holly just upgraded Central and NW NJ to a Winter Storm Warning for 4-6” and locally higher amounts tomorrow:

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM ESTTUESDAY

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon, Somerset and Mercer
counties. In Pennsylvania, Upper Bucks and Lower Bucks
counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lingering rain overnight will mix with snow or sleet and change over to all snow around daybreak Monday morning. Snow will last for several hours on Monday before dissipating into the late evening hours. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected with localized higher amounts possible under heavier bands that develop.

If this unfolds the way Frank 's graphic shows I'll take that 9.9 inches right over my area for sure!

Scott -
That will mean a delay for sure on Tuesday!

26 here. It went back to icing. Slop is totaling 3 large

SoulSingMG wrote:

This isnt for us soul, and i really hope we do better than this.

Not a lot going on yet but I expect that to change tonight and tomorrow with the forecast of around a foot.

Good news for people near the coast, 18z models seems to have bumped back east.

RGEM

Wow, i woke up to the forecast saying an inch and now models are showing anywhere from 6-12?!

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

This isnt for us soul, and i really hope we do better than this.

Jman, I live in Long Island City now. ;-) But you have an advisory now too.

pouring out..temp went up to 40 high for the day. we just had advisory's posted...small craft, flooding and winter weather... they are saying 1-3 right now for tom into Tues.

Amounts across much central/north NJ seem to be trending up in models and forecasts. It appears consensus is building, as Frank projected hours ago, around this trough or deformation band setting up over the state tomorrow. I’m increasingly feeling good about many of our chances to hit 6”-plus tomorrow.

Irish wrote:Wow, i woke up to the forecast saying an inch and now models are showing anywhere from 6-12?!

ha ha...I saw the same even here on the water the models say more than the advisory just posted...lets see if we get a surprise tomorrow

billg315 wrote:Amounts across much central/north NJ seem to be trending up in models and forecasts. It appears consensus is building, as Frank projected hours ago, around this trough or deformation band setting up over the state tomorrow. I’m increasingly feeling good about many of our chances to hit 6”-plus tomorrow.

Do we think forecasted temps are likely too high or is this one of those "snow so hard that it overcomes temps" types of events. Hopefully the former as the latter don't seem to work out too often,

25 with snow and sleet, about 2 inches OTG.