Re: December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:09 am

That's too funny. So in terms of snow amounts does this mean more possibly from nj to NYC north of nyc and now long Island too? How far off is the low from where it was supposed to form?

by **Sanchize06** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:10 am

NAM finally joins the party and comes east with all other short range guidance

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:12 am

Nam crushes me in cnj

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 A3961910

by **algae888** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:12 am

Moderate snow with a little sleet mixed in in Mount Vernon a coating already on cold surfaces sidewalk starting to get slushy

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:14 am

Sanchize06 wrote:NAM finally joins the party and comes east with all other short range guidance

I expect an upgrade to WSW for NYC metro and rest of NE Jersey shortly.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:17 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:NAM finally joins the party and comes east with all other short range guidance
I expect an upgrade to WSW for NYC metro and rest of NE Jersey shortly.

Yeah, have to think that is coming soon

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:23 am

Weird al it's not doing much in yonkers amazing local reports. Yes wsw are coming. The man shows 8 to 10 for me now woohoo

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:26 am

Once the H5 ULL passes south of us the radar will explode and the infamous deform band from the inverted trough will develop. I agree with posts above the surface low is not as tucked, meaning it's possible we see this band expand east to give other areas like ENJ/NYC/LI higher than forecasted snow.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 500

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 500

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:27 am

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:32 am

Yesterdays winner

Albany NY 13.3 inches yesterday, congratulations to Math (Mikey) a good move for a snow lover.

And for everyone who laments about B oston, 1.2 inches yesterday.

29.8 here (Orange County) light/moderate snow 3 inches on the ground.

It should be an interesting day for all.

by **Vinnydula** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:33 am

Heavy snow just starting to stick. 31.2

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:34 am

Vinnydula wrote:Heavy snow just starting to stick. 31.2

go get it Vinny

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:37 am

The HRRR has an explosive look over NYC mid-afternoon. There is also a band draped across NEPA. You see that area of very light snowfall in NWNJ? That is called subsidence...I was speaking to someone on the forum about this yesterday. Air rapidly rising in one area, in this case NYC, another area compensates with sinking air (NWNJ). Someone across the tri-state is going to see a lot less snowfall than anyone forecasted.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 5de5205edea50

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 5de5205edea50

by deadrabbit79 Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:40 am

Vinnydula wrote:Heavy snow just starting to stick. 31.2

Hey neighbor....same right next to you in Hartsdale

by **hyde345** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:48 am

30 and light snow, eyeballing 3 to 4 inches, will have to get out there later to measure and shovel. Expecting another 4-8 mostly this afternoon and tonight. Schools are closed up here.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:48 am

Hit some very heavy snow on my way to white plains ny. Not smart trying keep the school open for the afternoon.

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:51 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The HRRR has an explosive look over NYC mid-afternoon. There is also a band draped across NEPA. You see that area of very light snowfall in NWNJ? That is called subsidence...I was speaking to someone on the forum about this yesterday. Air rapidly rising in one area, in this case NYC, another area compensates with sinking air (NWNJ). Someone across the tri-state is going to see a lot less snowfall than anyone forecasted.

not to be selfish but I hope that explosive band happens right where it is. I want everyone to cash in though.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:56 am

Stare at this for about a minute. Pretty cool how you can see the SE-NW pivot from bottom to top of the entire band

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 Inxr1Kphla_h

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 Inxr1Kphla_h

by dsvinos Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:05 am

Here in Marlboro NJ...Monmouth county Temps dropped from 38 to 35 in 1/2 hour!! Hoping to get a bit more than expected!! Very Happy

by **Artechmetals** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:14 am

At work here in weehauken on port Imperial just plain rain will this change here

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:14 am

This may end earlier than predicted

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:19 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:This may end earlier than predicted

earlier as in less snow or as in its ahead of schedule? The band Frank posted looks to be growing too.

by **billg315** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:20 am

Have turned over to snow here. 34* and it feels colder. Starting to coat cars, elevated surfaces and grassy surfaces. Will need to get heavier to start coating the roadways.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:22 am

The RGEM shows a massive band over NYC. Those west and east of this band are in subsidence and see much less. This is going to be some nowcasting event to see where this band develops. Huge bust potential for many places and this now includes N&W of NYC which once was looking like the jackpot.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:23 am

A very unhealthy looking surface low ATTM. The ULL should swing through the coast in the next few hours. At that point you'll have a much better handle on whether or not you cash in. However, I'm not crazy about the surface or current wet bulb temperatures unless you are well N&W. It will really have to go to town for sticking. Like i said before the antecedent air mass on this one is not that good for most folks. We shall see.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 Surfac12

Surface temperatures are not ideal for accumulation unless you are well N&W.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 2mtemp10

Wet bulb temps which will allow surface to cool under intense precip.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations - Page 11 Wetbul10

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:25 am

Moisture is back filling nicely

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The RGEM shows a massive band over NYC. Those west and east of this band are in subsidence and see much less. This is going to be some nowcasting event to see where this band develops. Huge bust potential for many places and this now includes N&W of NYC which once was looking like the jackpot.

wow that 12 to 15 is literally miles from me. That's impressive and I'll take my 6 to 8 though if Bronx sees 12 to 16 i might be a but salty lol get it

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