February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0

jmanley32 wrote:NJ, yeah 1.2 freezing rain is insane and would immobilze the area for a long time not to mention massive power outages.  Even 0.3-0.5 which is what NWS shows in my area is enough to do some dmaage if not alot.  I just hope it doesnt get seriously cold right after and people have to freeeze i their homes.  And then we only have a few days before a major snowstorm, I am really getting concerned.

Right, this is not an event where the low will drag a warm front along and melt it, instead, the low will form off the coast and heights will crash after precip exits, it will get cold, and fast, models now not showing temps above 32 at all is a big issue.

Wow this could be a serious ice storm now.

NJ its kinda scary I have a 9 month old and we lose power in my area anytime something like this or wind etc happens. Sometimes for days. We lost for 5 days in Sandy. I hope its not that bad.

Frank that radar looks very ominous, big storm. I have my gear, wx ready flashlights, lantern lots of blankets just in case. May not even be able to get in car tomorrow morning if it starts early enough. And sounds like it would be dumb to drive in it anyways.

jmanley32 wrote:NJ its kinda scary I have a 9 month old and we lose power in my area anytime something like this or wind etc happens.  Sometimes for days.  We lost for 5 days in Sandy.  I hope its not that bad.

I lost power for 7 days from Sandy but never from any other storm in the 10 years I've lived here.

Wow...Lee:1-3 NYC heavy wet snow.. Snow and Ice North and west of the city 4-6 hr storm

wtf?

I see it's trending warmer but NWS still has me for 4 to 8 snow and .15 of ice at Mahwah NJ right on the Rockland County NY border.

If it's going warmer, I hope it just torches and gives me plain rain.This FR issue is a disaster if it plays out, especially up by me.

docstox12 wrote:I see it's trending warmer but NWS still has me for 4 to 8 snow and .15 of ice at Mahwah NJ right on the Rockland County NY border.

If it's going warmer, I hope it just torches and gives me plain rain.This FR issue is a disaster if it plays out, especially up by me.

Exactly, NWS offices seem to think that it's trending warmer somehow. Hopefully they're right.

18z NAM

Doc yeah I am in the darker blue NWS very worried.

My point click forecast now has .3-.4 in of ice. Ouch lol With 2-5in of snow

Mets2695 wrote:18z NAM

Pretty much none of that southern stripe is snow.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html

NEW WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ME (.3IN OF ICE WOW!)

.. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
* LOCATIONS... PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES... ALONG WITH AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.
* TIMING... SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

jmanley32 wrote:Doc yeah I am in the darker blue NWS very worried.

jmanley, I think your being south and east of me helps you out with city heat effect.I'm fried if this FR actually comes being right in the NW tip of Bergen County right on Rockland County border.

Can't take another 8 day outage like Sandy.I'm 63 years old.

ABC7 is saying literally nothing about ice for NYC,snow through 7 am a little mix then to all rain by 3 nothing about freezing rain..nothing..just snow/ice north and west of the city

I am far enough north of the city that the temps drop quite a bit actually, and NWS as of now has me in 0.25-0.5, we will see what happens, I am pretty much guarenteeing some kinda ice event if it pans out for my area.

RJ if you loo k at a earlier map frank posted its a very fine line, rain just into NYC and bronx northward freezing rain, so its a very thread the needle as frank would say imo.

I am surprised there are not ice storm warnings.

New WSW 0.25-0.5 ice yikes.

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
406 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND
CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

NWS Mt. Holly seems to put a lot of stock into SREF runs.

NJZ107-108-NYZ074-075-078-176>178-051100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
406 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA
AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG
ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

This includes me doc and who ever wasn't sure about bronx and southern westchester. Ice storm warnings posted later tonight? What is the criteria for a ice storm warning?

This storm is getting me sick Its got about 7 senarinos Hope Lee is correct by saying a 6hr storm

18z Hi-Res NAM. I cant imagine that 8-12"inches is all ice and sleet verbatim with this run.

That map doesnt make any sense. If it was we would all be iced inside for weeks lol, not actually funny at all.

sroc4 wrote:18z Hi-Res NAM.  I cant imagine that 8-12"inches is all ice and sleet verbatim with this run.  

It's not, it's 8-12" snow equivalent liquid (so 1") that's frozen. On this run it's mostly ZR with some IP mixed in so it would be like an inch and a half of ice on the ground. Not 8-12" if that makes sense. It's assuming since it is frozen that it is snow but it is not. HRRR and RAP doing the same thing.