February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0

That map doesnt make any sense. If it was we would all be iced inside for weeks lol, not actually funny at all.

sroc4 wrote:18z Hi-Res NAM.  I cant imagine that 8-12"inches is all ice and sleet verbatim with this run.  

It's not, it's 8-12" snow equivalent liquid (so 1") that's frozen. On this run it's mostly ZR with some IP mixed in so it would be like an inch and a half of ice on the ground. Not 8-12" if that makes sense. It's assuming since it is frozen that it is snow but it is not. HRRR and RAP doing the same thing.

GFS is colder and SE. 0*c line sits on the south shore of Li

Not good If it stays there more duration of ice Alex

I dont really get that why the map output does that but ok

What the 18z NAM is actually showing for those confused, It's ZR so it's liquid equivalent (ice amount) would be around 1" in the pink areas.

My WSW says freezinfg rain starts late morning, so I wonder if ill be able to make it to work but i wonder about getting home.

Let me not post that extreme opinion although I think it is going to be very dangerous and damaging to trees and powerlines. And if that map is right in showing up to one inch of freezing rain on top of 3-6 of snow then i don't even know how to describe that without instilling panic.

so which is right, NWS 0.3-0.5 for highest areas or NAM up to 1 inch, thats a big difference. And they are still saying snow in the txt.

jmanley32 wrote:so which is right, NWS 0.3-0.5 for highest areas or NAM up to 1 inch, thats a big difference.  And they are still saying snow in the txt.

If the SREF is right it'll be mostly rain, still a big trend in models but the trend has generally been colder at the surface and warmer aloft which is NOT good.

Current temp is 29*. Was 40* at 1:30pm. Was 30 * an hr ago. Still clear night..the calm before the storm.

Guys so gut feeling will you think it will be mainly rain or ice ? Was at work didn't get a chance to follow you guys

I am going with the severe ice just because I have this gut feeling, BUT it very well could be rain should the 32 line come just a bit further and warm the surface. But nontheless anywhere from 0.25-1.0 of ice is nothing to joke around with so we need to be prepared and hope for the best.

Personally I have never seen a ice storm like that and I dunno what its like at all but I imagine not good. How would you even go outside at all.

Thanks I'm in nnj about 25 miles out of NYC probably not a good senerio for me

even just north of NYC bronx southern WC are in the 0.25-.50 zone in the WSW I posted earler. Could be even more by looking at that NAM and bringing it down to the QPF amounts.  I wonder if ice storm warnings will replace WSW anyones thoughts?

well we need to wait for the head honcho to get back from his workout, then he will have more info I am sure : )

I have been in severe ice storms growing up in New Hampshire. .75 ice accretion left my town looking like a bomb went off. Trees & power lines down everywhere.

However, I don't think this will materialize like that here in the metro. I dunno. It's never happened before. I can't see Manhattan with a half inch of ice accumulating.

About to open an OBS thread because precip is beginning to enter the region.

There is always a first and the way this winter is progressing I wouldn't bet against it

I remember back in the late 80s early 90s a bad ice storm here on long island.

Soul for Manhattan I agree but the Bronx and southern wc can be just enough colder to make the difference. But yeah I see they include nyc in the ice so that'd def b a first.

Nj thought wasn't until way after midnight. Coming in earlier?

My local met is way downplaying this making it sound like nothing. I don't think k that's wise at this pt. Even if it does trend warmer best to alert Ppl now.

NWS just tweeted "PLEASE SHARE! WInter Storm Warning now included Southern Nassau county as ice accumulation could bring down trees and power lines!"

Looks like they are starting to get worried.

Posted a final snow map, move to other thread.