February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0

Frank_Wx wrote:

SurfNJ wrote:So Monmouth county should expect to see mostly rain/freezing rain from this event?

Besides the first 2-3 hours which could be snow, other then that, yes. 

Oh and welcome!

Thanks Frank! Glad to have finally found a knowledgeable, reliable source for weather info!

12z EURO

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=224987

Need to see what it says about the ice, this is arguably one of the most important factors around here for this storm. It could be a lot of ice or just plain rain.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf

Euro has a stripe of 6" here on the north shore. Matches upton nicely.

Radar

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

Upton is basically keeping me all frozen tmw and said after reviewing new data, their forecast will remain.

Despite the Euro being slightly warmer than 0z, you can still see it gives 5in for central LI and a stripe of 7-9” along the north shore (my school and my house) haha. Snow day? i hope so!

The radar looks full of moisture. Cant wait for the blue glob to be over us.

Can someone tell me what the hell is going on? I have a Winter Storm Warning here w/ 4-8 inches + ice in Manhattan yet The Weather Channel is calling for an inch of snow and then rain...???

AND OF COURSE, right now on TWC, they are centered on Boston.

Just watched their Winter Weather Expert: He is calling for a tiny bit of snow in nyc (barely an inch) before heavy rain all night/am. lol. how can people have SUCH different forecasts!?? this isn't a difference between 'oh 4-6' or '5-8'

I wish we could iron this out now I need to know if I am coming in tomorrow or not. I am just north of the city and may be in that serious icing area.

SoulSingMG wrote:Just watched their Winter Weather Expert: He is calling for a tiny bit of snow in nyc (barely an inch) before heavy rain all night/am. lol. how can people have SUCH different forecasts!?? this isn't a difference between 'oh 4-6' or '5-8'

i know,its crazy i guess we got our big attention with yesterdays storm

I wonder if this will be a big flop and all WSW will be cancelled, havent seen that in a LONG time.

Mets2695 wrote:Despite the Euro being slightly warmer than 0z, you can still see it gives 5in for central LI and a stripe of 7-9” along the north shore (my school and my house) haha. Snow day? i hope so!

Alex,

Lock it up you are off tomorrow - my Super said he wil let us by 8PM tonight and it doesn't look good!!

Mugs

First call (more maps coming soon to hone in on ZR/Rain amounts) I feel fairly confident on the snow now.

Go with Franks ideas NWS will back off most of the warnings Much less snow and more rain

Oldtimer, i actually think we remain frozen for a while with maybe a half foot of snow before the changeover. We r on the north shore of the island and i think that will make a big difference when compared to our friends on the north shore.

US National Weather Service New York NY
Just a quick update as of 1230pm: No big updates have been made to our forecast with precip on track to start after midnight. It will start as snow and could be moderate to heavy at times. We will then see a changeover a few hours later with timing and precip type continuing to be fine tuned! Remember, any freezing rain, especially over snow, will be hazardous so plan extra time for your commute in the morning. Stay tuned after 4pm for additional updates!

I know,I know Alex but the first Low will pump sw in mid levels and the secondary will not become primary

Yea which may turn us to ice, but temps will be slow to rise above freezing, if they do.

Mets2695 wrote:Oldtimer, i actually think we remain frozen for a while with maybe a half foot of snow before the changeover. We r on the north shore of the island and i think that will make a big difference when compared to our friends on the north shore.

This storm track isn't going to give anyone in the NYC metro half a foot IMO. 2-4" at best. Mt. Holly is far less bullish then Upton, the 850s will rise north of the city and LI and I-95 fairly quickly (though not to the extent to the NAM), IMO nobody south or east of I-287 will remain completely frozen. This is a terrible setup for this area, need I go find analogs again? Sussex county, NEPA and northern HV will be the only people that cash in on large amounts of pure snow. It will be a sloppy mess for everyone else. Look at the radar, that is not the signature of a system that will drop 6" on the coast.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

Yeah, that is the problem here. The 2nd'ary low is not becoming primary, keeping levels warmer than thought yesterday. That was the big question. So it looks like (i HATE to say it...) TWC may be right.

My hight temp today hete was expected to be 40° only got up to 36 so rafiational cooling witj snowpack may be a key factor here

I wish everyone got big snows with this storm but up here In the mid-Hudson Valley we got the shaft on the last 3 big snows so 6-12 for us up here was long time waiting!

theres this thing in NYC called Notify NYC..random things to do with city government closings accidents bridges tunnels etc..They alerted me today,according to them the following.

Travel advisory 4-8" bronx,manhatten
2-4" Brooklyn,Queens and Staten Island

not a word about sleet or rain i really hope people arent caught off guard with the ice upton is still predicting up to .25 of ice

jimv45 wrote:I wish everyone got big snows with this storm but up here In the mid-Hudson Valley we got the shaft on the last 3 big snows so 6-12 for us up here was long time waiting!

Enjoy it!   

The lack of clarity in official forecasts for the potential for ice is worrying me quite a bit. I've seen a number of storms with ice components and it truly doesn't take much ice at all to turn things treacherous. I'm predicting the NYC Mayor will have schools open tomorrow nevertheless, after all, he did drop the groundhog!