February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0

A few miles north of I 84, Hoping this warming trend ends and I can hold onto a nice snow storm. I can handle some sleet, perfer all snow, and definetely do not what any rain.

Frank when you say .25 to .50 of ice is that sleet or freezing rain ice?

2004 big snow looks good some sleet I don't think it goes to rain here but things can change!

My gut continues to tell me the snowpack will prove the models wrong and it will be more of a frozen event in the NYC Metro and Northern LI (Excluding the forks)

Nws office tech in Boston said the Nam had convective feedback errors and thus caused a warmer and more northerly track which should not be the case.

So the WSW is mainly for that big threat of ice Frank? Because 2-4 inches of snow is not WSW criteria here. But NWS thinks 4-8 for Southen HV which is where I am barely though. But alot of times I am JUSt far enough north to get more snow that the city does. Fun ice skating rink for AM commute. If there is really that much Ice I hope they call a state of emergency and prohibit driving.

New Mt. Holly Discussion. (Seems like they like the colder solution)

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FROM THE I95/NJ TURNPIKE CORRIDOR NWWD.
THE I95 CORRIDOR IS MAINLY FOR ICE, IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW AND NOT
MUCH ICE IN THE POCONOS WITH THE LEHIGH VALLEY CORRIDOR AT AN
APPROXIMATE 50/50 SPLIT.

IF THERE WAS ANY SLIGHT NUDGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT MODELS, IT WAS
SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WRF AND OTHER
MODELS WAS THE PUSH OF WARM AIR AT AROUND 800MB. THAT CORE IS SO
WARM ON THE WRF-NMMB, THE PTYPE CAN ONLY GO ONE WAY FREEZING RAIN OR
PLAIN RAIN. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS WARM INITIALLY
AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE SLEET OR SNOW. THE ECMWF IS COMPARABLE TO
THE GFS AT 850MB, SO WE DID LEAN ITS WAY.

CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WARNING IS WEAKEST ALONG THE I295 CORRIDOR.
EXPECTING THE NEW SNOW COVER TO OFFER TEMPERATURE RESISTANCE.
MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN THE SLOWEST WITH RISING SFC TEMPS. ITS ONE
THING WE LEARNED OVER THE YEARS WITH FREEZING RAIN IS IF YOU ARE NOT
AHEAD OF IT, YOU`LL NEVER CATCH UP. SO WE WERE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE HEADLINES THAT LEANED TOWARD THE FREEZING RAIN.

AS FAR AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AND STARTS MEETING RESISTANCE IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS HELPS A SECONDARY FORM
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND BY DOING SO LOCKS IN THE COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE FCST PWATS
OF ABOUT 1 INCH, SO MODEL QPF GIVEN THIS IS ANOTHER QUICK HITTER OF
AROUND AN INCH LOOK REASONABLE. THE WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COME
QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE BEST MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE. WRF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUGGESTS BANDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE DO HAVE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA,
ALTHOUGH ITS SUCH A FAST MOVER, THE TIME IS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
HOURS. LASTLY WE HAVE THE DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
EXCELLENT VENTILATION ALOFT.

THESE ALL SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT, HIGH IMPACT EVENT. GOING INTO THE
SNOW YESTERDAY, THE FCST 1000-500MB THICKNESS OF 546 WORKED LIKE A
CHARM. GOING IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION, THIS VALUE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD
FOR THE SNOW/NOT FALLING AS SNOW LINE. PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT
RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. BUT BY 06Z THAT FCST
THICKNESS IS ALREADY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE OF THE
WARMING TREND AND THE LATTER LOCATION, WE LOWERED SNOWFALL SOUTH.
CONVERSELY, ALL OF THE MODELS DO NOT PASS THIS THICKNESS VALUE
THROUGH OUR CWA, SO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WERE KEPT MOSTLY SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW INCREASES IN THE NEXT TIER DOWNWARD AS
EVERY HOUR WE ARE WRONG WITH THE TRANSITION PTYPE, ONE COULD
ADD/SUBTRACT AN INCH OF SNOW. AS WE GET CLOSER TO PHL, THE
UNCERTAINTY COMES TO WHEN WILL WARMER AIR REACH THE SURFACE. MODELED
OUR WARNINGS AFTER THE 12/14 EVENT IN WHICH PHL STRUGGLED TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WAS ALSO WITH SIMILAR SNOW COVERAGE. SNOW
COVERAGE HOWEVER IS DEEPER FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WE WERE
VERY SLOW WITH THEM RISING ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WERE CARRIED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER AFTER TEMPS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TO ALLOW WARMING TO TAKE AFFECT.

BECAUSE THE PCPN INTENSITY SHOULD BE MODERATE, IF NOT HEAVY, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO FREEZING, WE BELIEVE THERE
WONT BE A 1:1 RATIO OF RAINFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED
SURFACES. WHILE WE EXPECT SOME POWER OUTAGES TO OCCUR, IT COULD BE
WORSE IF TEMPS WERE LOWER AND PCPN RATES OVERALL LIGHTER. HIGHEST
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE PHL NW SUBURBS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NJ ARE
NEAR ONE THIRD OF AN INCH.

ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WE LOWER POPS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. ANY BOUNCE UP IN
TEMPS NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENT IF AT ALL. WE
FOLLOWED A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR TEMPS AGAIN.

elkiehound wrote:Do you think there will be a switchover to rain in Western Central Jersey, Flemington area ?

Going to be close. Right on the line

WOLVES1 wrote:Frank when you say .25 to .50 of ice is that sleet or freezing rain ice?

Both

More confident of I95 going over to rain based on trends, rain will go nw of I95 too imo and rain totals increase as you go south and east.

We could actually get half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain

Frank_Wx wrote:We could actually get half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain

Agreed, models have trended to a stronger primary with a late transfer putting the track more or less directly over us instead of to the south where it was modeled yesterday. Had a feeling this last minute NW and amplified trend would happen. Would take rain over ZR. No thanks.

Frank....love reading your work. What do you see for my neck of the woods?

We just got placed under a winter storm warning for 4-8 inches of snow. Only .10 inches of ice. I disagree with the NWS here. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 436 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... CTZ009>012-NJZ004-006-103>106-NYZ071>073-041745- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- 436 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE. * TIMING...SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ105&warncounty=NJC013&firewxzone=NJZ105&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.UvEhSX-9KSM

Mt. Hollys forecast is much more realistic since last night. Slashes snow totals south and raised ice.

Just a few miles north of you, in Springfield, the WSW is only calling for 3-5" of snow and .25", but ice. I think I-78 is their dividing line...

H.G. Rising wrote:Just a few miles north of you, in Springfield, the WSW is only calling for 3-5" of snow and .25", but ice.  I think I-78 is their dividing line...

Welcome! And I think you may be right

Frank Im going with your forecast as I do with most This is so complicated with so many kinds of precept. and timing Your snow map for yesterdays storm IMO was 99% correct You are amazing with all your knowledge and patience with the forum

WTF is up with the 12z NAM? Showing no snow tonight though 84 hrs except far northern NY VT etc. Is this a glitch?

So Monmouth county should expect to see mostly rain/freezing rain from this event?

SurfNJ wrote:So Monmouth county should expect to see mostly rain/freezing rain from this event?

Besides the first 2-3 hours which could be snow, other then that, yes. 

Oh and welcome!

oldtimer wrote:Frank  Im going with your forecast as I do with most  This is so complicated  with so many kinds of precept. and timing  Your snow map for yesterdays storm IMO was 99% correct  You are amazing with all your knowledge and patience with the forum  

Thanks paisan!

jmanley32 wrote:WTF is up with the 12z NAM? Showing no snow tonight though 84 hrs except far northern NY VT etc.  Is this a glitch?

It's too warm. I disagree with it.

Frank_Wx wrote:

oldtimer wrote:Frank  Im going with your forecast as I do with most  This is so complicated  with so many kinds of precept. and timing  Your snow map for yesterdays storm IMO was 99% correct  You are amazing with all your knowledge and patience with the forum  

Thanks paisan!

jmanley32 wrote:WTF is up with the 12z NAM? Showing no snow tonight though 84 hrs except far northern NY VT etc.  Is this a glitch?

It's too warm. I disagree with it.

At the mid levels I agree, looks plausible at the surface though, look at this, shows an inch of ice in central NJ NW of I-95, if this were to verify....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html

Euro is warmmmm, actually looks like NAM

Jeff Smith has a chat going on and people up in I-84 area on north need to relax he said 6-12 very little mixing!

Frank_Wx wrote:

SurfNJ wrote:So Monmouth county should expect to see mostly rain/freezing rain from this event?

Besides the first 2-3 hours which could be snow, other then that, yes. 

Oh and welcome!

Thanks Frank! Glad to have finally found a knowledgeable, reliable source for weather info!

12z EURO

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=224987

Need to see what it says about the ice, this is arguably one of the most important factors around here for this storm. It could be a lot of ice or just plain rain.