February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0

Frank_Wx wrote:Not fair, CP is going to pass me in snowfall after tomorrow.

Looks that way Frank, my only concern is this upper level warming, I've seen that do strange things to potential accumulations through the years. I don't want an ice storm here, but at 50 miles north of MIdtown manhattan I don't think I can rule it out completely yet.

Do you think my concerns are warranted based on this mornings runs?

btw- great job with yesterdays storm. You beat the Mets again.

Are you still thinking your map for NNJ holds?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Not fair, CP is going to pass me in snowfall after tomorrow.

Looks that way Frank, my only concern is this upper level warming, I've seen that do strange things to potential accumulations through the years.  I don't want an ice storm here, but at 50 miles north of MIdtown manhattan I don't think I can rule it out completely yet.

Do you think my concerns are warranted based on this mornings  runs?

btw- great job with yesterdays storm. You beat the Mets again.

I think everyone, unless you're in the upper HV, is going to experience some ice or rain. But I think you can still reach the 8 inch plateau. It's going to be close and the forecast is tricky. CAD events are never fun (for me)

Im hearing cold air may hang on frank can this be posdible were im at so i guess im looking at a little of everything

Here is my snow map for the event.  Im hoping my map is like the 3 bears, not to hot, not too cold, but jjjjjust right.  Like frank said there is def bust potential here in the colors that split LI and NYC.  My thoughts are that the snow pack plays a role in holding onto to surface temps more than modeled, and that there is heavy precip that makes it into the area before the mid levels can warm as depicted by the NAM and Euro.  I am def concered with the ice accretion potential here esp because my wife will be driving around in it.  We shall see.  Def a tough set up.  

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Frank_Wx wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Not fair, CP is going to pass me in snowfall after tomorrow.

Looks that way Frank, my only concern is this upper level warming, I've seen that do strange things to potential accumulations through the years.  I don't want an ice storm here, but at 50 miles north of MIdtown manhattan I don't think I can rule it out completely yet.

Do you think my concerns are warranted based on this mornings  runs?

btw- great job with yesterdays storm. You beat the Mets again.

I think everyone, unless you're in the upper HV, is going to experience some ice or rain. But I think you can still reach the 8 inch plateau. It's going to be close and the forecast is tricky. CAD events are never fun (for me)

Nothing worse than being in a heavy snow band and then hearing those sleet pellets start to hit the window and you know  the mid levels are turning against you and  your accumulations are about to go way down.  Very tricky forecast indeed.

Thanks for all you do Frank!! I always plan according to what this board says.

Yea CP I did 7.5 Was happy with that Now we got mess on our hands for tomorrow

Any thoughts on timing of changeover from snow to ice/sleet for western Nassau county?
I'm trying to time my commute into NYC tomorrow before the ice starts (I'm willing to leave as early as 5 am if necessary) and my return home from NYC to Nassau County after the ice has changed to rain or precipitation has stopped altogether. Don't want to break any bones!

I am a constant observer and onlooker on this site. I love the winter so far! Can anybody give me an indication of what I can expect up here in Morris Plains, NJ? Thanks! Very appreciative of any information!

12z nam came in a little warmer. not a good trend. it also delays the heavier precip. for us to get a descent snowfall it has to snow hard early on. I do not think the nam is correct with the precip. most of the other models has heavy precip right from the start.

the nam solution is a very bad ice storm for nnj and HV.

algae888 wrote:the nam solution is a very bad ice storm for nnj and HV.

Algae:

Not good, the trends since last night to a warmer solution especially at mid levels is not the trend we want right now. Snow totals go way down if this continues even in HV.

BTW - You better move soon, I saw your post about accuweather long range giving you 1.71 inches ice LOL. How funnny are they.

algae888 wrote:12z nam came in a little warmer. not a good trend. it also delays the heavier precip. for us to get a descent snowfall it has to snow hard early on. I do not think the nam is correct with the precip. most of the other models has heavy precip right from the start.

12z is quite a difference compared to last nights 00z.  Same time frame 9z Wed morn.  Notice the difference in the freezing line and intensity of the precip.  I hope its not a trend, but rather the NAM not getting a good handle on how this set up plays out.  (Let me know if you cant see the images please Thanks)
Last night 0z:


12z:
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Err I really hope, its not that much of a change, but isn't the NAm pretty good this close to the storm as has been mentioned before?

jmanley32 wrote:Err I really hope, its not that much  of a change, but isn't the NAm pretty good this close to the storm as has been mentioned before?

True..very true

Futurecast is still mostly frozen for me
http://content.foxtvmedia.com/wfld/weather/FUTURECAST_NATIONAL.gif

Friend who works for Albany Weather station say if you are north of 84 it will be mostly snow some sleet to mix in after 8am 8-12 inches the sleet will not cut down to much on totals.

12z NAM is mostly rain it looks like for I-95. Snow far upstate in ny, would prefer this, do not want a crippling ice storm.

RGEM SNOW MAP


RGEM ICE



SLeet:

Where I am at in NJ it will be a bitch of a storm - snow like Frank's map then a bad ice storm then some rain at the end if it does occur. This will cause power outages up here IMO!! FN eh!

The Nam is way to strong with the warming but this not a I-95 storm but I can see areas around 287 get bad icing and big snows from I-84 north!

So what do ywe think will happen in southern westchester and NYC? NWS is currently saying WSW with 4-8 inches with a 1/10 inch ice which is way down from 1/2 inche ice. Is this still a volitile and changing storm or is it pretty much a lock and rain for this area, If so why does the NWS think otherwise.

I'm standing my call from last night. 2-4 inches of snow for the city and .25-.50 inches of ice. Then some rain.

The GFS was about 2-4 inches of snow, .25-.50 inches of ice, and some rain. Matches my forecast from yesterday. This was never a NYC storm anyway, at least I did not think so due to the cutting primary warming the mid levels and the disorganized broad LLC secondary.

Do you think there will be a switchover to rain in Western Central Jersey, Flemington area ?

A few miles north of I 84, Hoping this warming trend ends and I can hold onto a nice snow storm. I can handle some sleet, perfer all snow, and definetely do not what any rain.

Frank when you say .25 to .50 of ice is that sleet or freezing rain ice?