December 2019 Observations & Discussion

December started a whole 3 days ago but we were so focused on tracking yesterday's storm we never started a thread. I'll start by doing a quick "storm in review" that shows how the forecast went. I think the map turned out to be a pretty good one considering the volatility models were showing leading up to the event. Ultimately I settled on using a blend of the RGEM/NAM because I felt they handled 500mb ULL best. Don't get me wrong, these 2 models did very poorly the night before and day of the storm, but were pretty good 48+ hours out from the event.





Not sure if anyone brought this up, but November finished top 10 (maybe 5) coldest on record for NYC. It really was cold. The tropical forcing coupled with +AAM at times lead to an anomalous ridge just off the WC of the U.S. The -EPO/+PNA along with a -NAO with ridging pressing down from Greenland kept temps well below normal along the EC. Its no surprise we saw our first significant snowfall of the season. Honestly I am surprised this pattern did not deliver at least one other snow event, but the western ridging is displaced a little too far west.

Some of these lake effect snow bands will reach N&W sections of our area on Wednesday



Also, some models show a weak snow squall coming thru parts of CNJ/SNJ on Wednesday morning.

It's still only Fall and we have had one of the coldest Novembers and now an early snowfall.Let's hope this portends a pattern that continues cold and snowy,even with the obligatory "January thaw".
In Fort Lee NJ, clear blue skies, calm winds in the 30's.

Frank the pattern that we've been in since the beginning of November if it continues we will have an awesome winter. What I'm hearing is that there's an open body of water that usually iced over by now somewhere Northwest of Alaska. It's in the EPO region and it's assisting with ridging / high pressure which eventually delivers the cold to us and also helps with the pack with wave breaking so that we're not flooded with Pacific air

That is true Al wull.post a map when I get home.
Part of what I was going to put in LR.
Anyway 35* for my high, they had me at 38*
Snow doing its work here.

Watch the shortwave this Friday need a tick further South and more snow shower can be had by most of N&W posters even possibly down to the NYC Metro

Frank_Wx wrote:



December started a whole 3 days ago but we were so focused on tracking yesterday's storm we never started a thread. I'll start by doing a quick "storm in review" that shows how the forecast went. I think the map turned out to be a pretty good one considering the volatility models were showing leading up to the event. Ultimately I settled on using a blend of the RGEM/NAM because I felt they handled 500mb ULL best. Don't get me wrong, these 2 models did very poorly the night before and day of the storm, but were pretty good 48+ hours out from the event.





Not sure if anyone brought this up, but November finished top 10 (maybe 5) coldest on record for NYC. It really was cold. The tropical forcing coupled with +AAM at times lead to an anomalous ridge just off the WC of the U.S. The -EPO/+PNA along with a -NAO with ridging pressing down from Greenland kept temps well below normal along the EC. Its no surprise we saw our first significant snowfall of the season. Honestly I am surprised this pattern did not deliver at least one other snow event, but the western ridging is displaced a little too far west.

Great write up, but November although being almost 4 degrees below normal in NYC did not finish anywhere near the top 10 coldest Novembers of all time it was actually tied for 32nd coldest of all time . Now out of 150 Novembers that isn't bad but it was nowhere near the top 10, as some places had written.

CP, great data which does relegate this past November to cold-er not among the cold-est.
It was a nice lead in to the early December snowstorm.Lee Goldberg mentioned snow showers for our area Friday which may leave a minor accumulation.

Nice coating of snow this morning. 32 degrees. Already much better December than last year.

Tiny bit of flurries this morning. About 36. Have a nice day all. When's the next storm chance?

32* and just had about 2 hours of light snow wrapping up as flurries now. Coated cars and colder surfaces.

30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

4 straight days to start of December with snow - A DECEMBER TO REMEMBER INCOMING!!!!!!!!!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

Not hard to believe. I like looking at it, but dark gloomy skies can get depressing especially when you grew up in a state where it's sunny and has beautiful beaches

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

You should move to Rochester NY. Gray skies and snow for 5 months out of the year. Trust me. It gets old.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

33 degrees.
Was in Fort Lee NJ Tuesday and Wednesday , maybe 2 inches on the ground.Elevation matters because I went down to Edgewater NJ, a few hundred feet below Fort Lee, and there was maybe an inch OTG.As I was driving home into Sloatsburg NY, you could see the snow amounts going up.Got back to Monroe NY at 8 30 PM to light flurries and a winter wonderland.Looks like early February not December.Some light snow possible for tomorrow.

Yesterday evening's light rain showers and mist froze on my car early this morning. Nice coat of ice to scrape off the windows. A little alcohol/water mixture in a spray bottle does wonders though.

moleson wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

You should move to Rochester NY. Gray skies and snow for 5 months out of the year. Trust me. It gets old.

I've been through several winters like that here, and never found them depressing. Of course if it was every year, year after year like Rochester who knows, my thought process might change.

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

33 degrees.
Was in Fort Lee NJ Tuesday and Wednesday , maybe 2 inches on the ground.Elevation matters because I went down to Edgewater NJ, a few hundred feet below Fort Lee, and there was maybe an inch OTG.As I was driving home into Sloatsburg NY, you could see the snow amounts going up.Got back to Monroe NY at 8 30 PM to light flurries and a winter wonderland.Looks like early February not December.Some light snow possible for tomorrow.

Elevation is definitely critical in marginal temperature profiles. I have had several instances where Doylestown, PA @ 275' (13 miles away south of me) is heavy rain and MBY @ 600' is heavy snow. That 1.5 degrees can make the difference. But i probably need to be up about 3 thousand feet to give me the kind of snow I'd want. Maybe I'll work on building a mound.

37 degrees and flurries.

38 heavy snow shower

Snow shower at 3 and then flurries at 4. My Nemo LOL

yeah nice surprise heavy fluries at about 4 today.