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12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:12 pm

0z sends double digit totals into VT and torches the coast. how can these models be so far apart
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:16 pm

@aiannone wrote:0z sends double digit totals into VT and torches the coast. how can these models be so far apart

It’s a conspiracy. They’re trying to make us all nuts.

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Post by jimv45 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:17 pm

Yes Frank GFS might be on to something and it would be a downer for some here I think it could be right.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:19 pm

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 5ec43010

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Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:0z sends double digit totals into VT and torches the coast. how can these models be so far apart

It’s a conspiracy. They’re trying to make us all nuts.

Agreed Frank. Look at this. Takes the low over SNJ LOL

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 13149110
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 13155210
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:23 pm

Remember with Stella (3/14/17), the GFS was the south-eastern most scenario for several days. It wasn't until we got much closer that it caves to the other models for a more north-west type solution.

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Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:35 pm

HRDPS much colder
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 680b9810
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:35 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:Remember with Stella (3/14/17), the GFS was the south-eastern most scenario for several days.  It wasn't until we got much closer that it caves to the other models for a more north-west type solution.
I love the positive thinking math! This is so true too. but even CMC is i think nuts too far north too. We might just have to skip the globals tomorrow and go with the SR.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:36 pm

@aiannone wrote:HRDPS much colder
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 680b9810
Dem some massive heavy bands right over NYC metro sweet.
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Post by hyde345 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:36 pm

The GFS is stubborn but it will cave tomorrow.
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Post by hyde345 on Mon Dec 14, 2020 11:42 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Last few runs of the GFS for the same time stamp. In the grand scheme of it all, not a lot of change from this model. At this point it can’t be discounted, and many in the meteorological community are beginning to believe it

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 1576248461_trendingabitnorth.gif.28fad49e861e8afbd8dd81c9b18aab49

I don't know, just because its consistent doesn't mean it is right. It's done this before only to cave. The Euro and CMC have been consistent also and my money is on a blend of those models.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:29 am

00z UKMET

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 1:34 am

The entire 00Z suite came a tad further N and W except the GooFuS. That should happen tomorrow or should I say later today.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 1:40 am

Euro was a good hit 12-18 for most.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 1:43 am

The gfs is clearly on its own. Gn will see you all later today. Warnings prolly go up at some point.
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Post by Math23x7 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:38 am

Here are the snow maps from the last six EURO OP runs.  I know this cuts off eastern LI but I needed a good range map:

12/12 12Z:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf116

12/13 0Z:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf117

12/13 12Z:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf118

12/14 0Z:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf119

12/14 12Z:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf120

12/15 0Z:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Ecmwf121

There is a subtle but clear trend north.

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Post by Math23x7 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:56 am

Also, 6Z guidance, including 12km NAM, 3km NAM, and RGEM seem to have the northwest shift as well.

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Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:38 am

@Math23x7 wrote:Also, 6Z guidance, including 12km NAM, 3km NAM, and RGEM seem to have the northwest shift as well.

All those models show a foot of more I-80 North and away from the immediate Coast amazing how consistent to Euro has been showing a foot or more of snow for the New York metro area
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Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:34 am

Good morning! We are locked in for what looks like will be our most impactful storm since Jan 2016:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cb1cf810
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Post by adamfitz1969 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:05 am

GFS has not budged for last 5 days with the track of this storm. Consistent thruought.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:31 am

6z GFS largely the same as it has been. In fact all the models have been (other than the NAM which underwent a big - positive for most - change yesterday afternoon) largely consistent.
If I had to summarize it would be that North Jersey is getting slammed with a massive snowstorm no matter what model you buy into as are the NW Philly burbs and immediate NYC metro.
South Jersey especially along the coast is getting a rain or a mix that severely limits accumulation.
The only two areas in question are from Philly northeast right along I-195 in central Jersey which could be all heavy snow or if the NAM is right could have significant mixing which will make a big difference; and areas farther up the Hudson Valley which could get largely cutoff and limited to light snow totals if the GFS holds.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:37 am

Mount Holly has issued Winter Storm Warnings:
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AMEST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations in excess of 12 inches along with ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute on Wednesday and the morning commute on Thursday. The heavy snow could result in power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in southwest to northeast late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The snow could become heavy at times late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There may also be some sleet and freezing rain mixed in at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:38 am

This stubborn GFS is reading that high pressure which could suppress this storm much further south.Glad the other models disagree, but would like to see this cave over the next 24 hours.Bad memories of that "snowmageddon" year when NYC didn't see a flake while Philly got over 20 inches.
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Post by phil155 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:41 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:Good morning! We are locked in for what looks like will be our most impactful storm since Jan 2016:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 2 Cb1cf810

This map makes me wonder just what to expect in the areas with extreme impacts.... Also wondering about potential mixing issues in middlesex county and the impact that will have on totals

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:49 am

Looks like 6zgfs came north a fair amount actually.  Most other models tucked in again ever so slightly. The subtle winshsheuld wipers as Bernie would say seem to be in effect.  Slide these lines left or right by 5-10miles and you have the difference between 3-6” SE of yellow. 6”10” between yellow and blue, and 8-12” NW of blue.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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