12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

@docstox12 wrote:This stubborn GFS is reading that high pressure which could suppress this storm much further south.Glad the other models disagree, but would like to see this cave over the next 24 hours.Bad memories of that "snowmageddon" year when NYC didn't see a flake while Philly got over 20 inches.

GFS already making moves Doc. You see that 12 from this mornings GFS run right over Monroe/Highland Mills. We haven't seen anything close to that from GFS regarding this storm. IT even has a 6 up past Hyde and Jim where it's been insistent in past runs accumulating snows wouldn't even make it that far north.

We seem to be in a 12-24 inch range on every model now. I never spike the football until my yardstick goes in the ground to verify but after last nights 0Z suites and this mornings GFS I'm starting to breathe a little easier.

Also remember this is 10:1 ratios, in the HV ratios should be more in the 12:1 to 14:1 range.

@phil155 wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:Good morning! We are locked in for what looks like will be our most impactful storm since Jan 2016:

This map makes me wonder just what to expect in the areas with extreme impacts.... Also wondering about potential mixing issues in middlesex county and the impact that will have on totals

Same. Looks like I’m in or bordering one of those purple areas.

The biggest open question is where exactly do the mid level lows track. Yesterday, they stayed south then scooted east off the coast, which allowed for heavy bands of snow to sit and rot over the area (deform). This morning, the 700mb low track right over NJ, which means dry slotting for the state including NYC on east. It also means more rain for the Jersey shore. What a huge difference! 06z euro snow map posted above

Notice how the axis of heaviest snow moves back into central PA. Just when we thought there was some model agreement yesterday, we actually do not with about 1.5 days to go.

How's this for a snowfall gradient. Personally, IMBY and Lehigh Valley my over/under is 1' which is a crushing in my book and will be ecstatic for it.  To render the prodigious amounts shown so much has to go right.  The ULL must stay in just the right spot to the SE, no dry slotting, etc., etc.

Fun to track, but expectations are in check.

Here’s your difference. EPS vs GEFS. The low being over SNJ will mean much reduced snowfall for almost everyone on this board, exception being N&W, while GEFS outcome would give everyone a significant storm event.

@Frank_Wx wrote:Here’s your difference. EPS vs GEFS. The low being over SNJ will mean much reduced snowfall for almost everyone on this board, exception being N&W, while GEFS outcome would give everyone a significant storm event.

I would split the difference ATTM. I think Jersey coast has a decent shot of getting more than progged now. Like LBI does much better than an inch kind of thing and wind up with 4-6".

The 6z Euro came a little Southeast 12 to 18 in for most of the tri-state area what I think it has most correct is you're not going to see one foot totals near Albany or Southern Vermont and New Hampshire very short cut off on the Northern extent

This is a from a met from another board he is an excellent forecaster.

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.

The temp drops throughout the day today....

This airmass is very cold and dry as the storm approaches...DENSE.

The orientation of the high is a classic CAD over performing location for northeast/mid Atlantic...

I would strongly hedge higher than current guidance for snowfall amounts in LI/NYC area...

@algae888 wrote:This is a from a met from another board he is an excellent forecaster.

I think you’re going to see a correction back southeast today as the arctic airmass that’s building into the region throughout the day begins to get ingested into the models.

The temp drops throughout the day today....

This airmass is very cold and dry as the storm approaches...DENSE.  

The orientation of the high is a classic CAD over performing location for northeast/mid Atlantic...

I would strongly hedge higher than current guidance for snowfall amounts in LI/NYC area...

Al the inevitable NW ticks then to adjust SE then the track.
I just said this in a text to Mike P - adjust the models about 15-20 miles SE today and for teh storm and that is what you'll get - crippling blow could be to the City and NNJ

I know this board hates to hear it, but TWC is all in on big snow into NYC metro with 12-18.

...running away now.

Morning all.

Great write-up Frank, and excellent analysis all around from you guys. Makes everything easy to understand for sure.

Looking forward to the model runs today. That being said, I've consistently been in the bullseye for highest snow totals here in NW NJ.

Now, being in the bullseye this far in advance has proven disastrous in the past, so I am managing my expectations accordingly. THAT being said, I really like what I see for Sussex NJ. I can't remember being in a better spot this late in the game.

Okay so GFS finally caves but very concerning the SR models are now coming way far NW heaviest snows far far north. Looks like could even rain at coast?! Thought a? Northern people if the SR holds you guys may be the jackpot.

Yes this is the surface low pressure, but it illustrates the point that 1-2 days out that there is not consensus within Euro ensembles ATTM.  To me that is a big spread at this lead time.

@sabamfa wrote:

@phil155 wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:Good morning! We are locked in for what looks like will be our most impactful storm since Jan 2016:

This map makes me wonder just what to expect in the areas with extreme impacts.... Also wondering about potential mixing issues in middlesex county and the impact that will have on totals

Same. Looks like I’m in or bordering one of those purple areas.

what exactly is it saying extreme property damage in red and purple? From winds? Snow causing damage?

Will this be wet and heavy or light and fluffy (Hunterdon county)? Thx

@crippo84 wrote:I know this board hates to hear it, but TWC is all in on big snow into NYC metro with 12-18.

...running away now.

They have me at 7 - 14 now

@jmanley32 wrote:

@sabamfa wrote:

@phil155 wrote:

@SoulSingMG wrote:Good morning! We are locked in for what looks like will be our most impactful storm since Jan 2016:

This map makes me wonder just what to expect in the areas with extreme impacts.... Also wondering about potential mixing issues in middlesex county and the impact that will have on totals

Same. Looks like I’m in or bordering one of those purple areas.

what exactly is it saying extreme property damage in red and purple? From winds? Snow causing damage?

Just wondering the same thing jman. I read it out loud to my wife and were both like "Wahhhh"! It's worded in a way that seems more appropriate for a hurricane that a winter storm, and it seems a tad bit overblown.

12z NAM is ugly

yikes. Windshield wiper effect?

Now someone post another model that shows the opposite. Please (lol)

If the lows (700/850) track that far north as shown by NAM then a lot of folks will be dry slotted and taint with sleet.  This is NAM out of its good range, but nonetheless it's possible.

I guess the all bets are still on the table.

@aiannone wrote:12z NAM is ugly

Yup. Not what I wanted to see at 12z day before storm. NAM can be deadly around now. smh.

It's amazing. In the span of 12 hours, we have worries about suppression and worries about the lows getting TOO far north....

Where is RB? the Nam plus others may be on to what he said might happen!!!

It's one model run, as Aaron Rodgers so perfectly said.. "R-E-L-A-XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX"