Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:28 pm

amugs wrote:The GEFS have not 2averes from 6 or 12 Z. Its mean has been basically the same with an inch of two each time across the area for snow.
The LP placement has again been within normal wobbles. The OP has been up down and all around, like so many weenies.
Again the cold is dense and a 1039 HP is mint. What till the snowpack sets in and the low temps turn tnis into a block of ice when we are in the teens to single digits. Thats for after the storm.

yeah not look forward to that that's how I broke my bumper on my last car. Need get a trowel or metal post

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:39 pm

Front Genesis is where its going to pour snow and its just north of the deep red on this map

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 20201212

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 C216ff10

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 Fb_img13

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:44 pm

cold press...

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 Coldpr10

by **jimv45** Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:54 pm

Just watched Lee boy he went huge up in my neck of the woods 18 plus, mixing NYC 6-12 Less south!

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:57 pm

GEFS 12"+

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 EpUAthvXYAE3jBU?format=png&name=medium

by hurrysundown23 Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:16 pm

For Sayreville NJ

Point Forecast:Parlin NJ
40.46°N 74.3°W (Elev. 98 ft)
Last Update:4:28 pm EST Dec 15, 2020
Forecast Valid:6pm EST Dec 15, 2020-6pm EST Dec 22, 2020

Detailed Forecast
TonightPartly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
WednesdaySnow likely, mainly after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Wednesday NightSnow before 1am, then snow and sleet. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
ThursdaySnow, mainly before 8am. High near 34. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

by **aiannone** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:17 pm

There will be a SE trend tonight on 0z. Why you ask?I walked out of work and a shooting star went right over my head. I wished for it. Simple enough, old fashioned way.

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:21 pm

aiannone wrote:There will be a SE trend tonight on 0z. Why you ask?I walked out of work and a shooting star went right over my head. I wished for it. Simple enough, old fashioned way.

That was just me on my broom, pushing the confluence south! Twisted Evil

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:26 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
aiannone wrote:There will be a SE trend tonight on 0z. Why you ask?I walked out of work and a shooting star went right over my head. I wished for it. Simple enough, old fashioned way.

That was just me on my broom, pushing the confluence south!

priceless lol

by **frank 638** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:28 pm

Just got through watching every weather report from Different stations this is what they came up with
Lonnie Quinn and yes his sleeves Were up .for the city 5 to 10 inches of snow
Janice 8 to 12
Nick Gregory 6 to 10
Lee Goldberg 6 to 12

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:28 pm

amugs wrote:Front Genesis is where its going to pour snow and its just north of the deep red on this map

I'm like on the northern side of the red but kinda in it so I'll be on edge. I like epawa map 10 to 15 plus. I'll take it any day. We can't be expecting 20 to 24 not near coast but as Al said 10 to 15 for this area is not common and a good storm.

by richb521 Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:29 pm

When the going gets tough, the confluence gets going!

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:31 pm

frank 638 wrote:Just got through watching every weather report from Different stations this is what they came up with
Lonnie Quinn and yes his sleeves Were up .for the city 5 to 10 inches of snow
Janice 8 to 12
Nick Gregory 6 to 10
Lee Goldberg 6 to 12

those all seem low especially if we see any south move tonight. The lower end I mean. A foot seems likely city north.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:45 pm

This is not a drill, the Hurricane Hunters are flying through the Gulf right now! Airplane

They are collecting data that will help the models hopefully nail the track of tomorrow's nor'easter!

[url=https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20]https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20[/url]

by **aiannone** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:53 pm

amugs wrote:This is not a drill, the Hurricane Hunters are flying through the Gulf right now! Airplane

They are collecting data that will help the models hopefully nail the track of tomorrow's nor'easter!

[url=https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20]https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20[/url]

Will they be in the 0z runs?

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:54 pm

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:This is not a drill, the Hurricane Hunters are flying through the Gulf right now! Airplane

They are collecting data that will help the models hopefully nail the track of tomorrow's nor'easter!

[url=https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20]https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20[/url]

Will they be in the 0z runs?

I would think so and definitely in the 6Z runs

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:08 pm

They ain't budging peeps!!

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 EpUKPnyWEAEY-uf?format=png&name=900x900

by **jmanley32** Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:14 pm

amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:This is not a drill, the Hurricane Hunters are flying through the Gulf right now! Airplane

They are collecting data that will help the models hopefully nail the track of tomorrow's nor'easter!

[url=https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20]https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20[/url]

Will they be in the 0z runs?

I would think so and definitely in the 6Z runs

wow that's expensive and unusual. Exciting.

by **nutleyblizzard** Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:20 pm

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 275dc410

18z Euro holds serve

by **billg315** Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:This is not a drill, the Hurricane Hunters are flying through the Gulf right now! Airplane

They are collecting data that will help the models hopefully nail the track of tomorrow's nor'easter!

[url=https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20]https://twitter.com/AWxNYC/status/1338982118089744396?s=20[/url]

Will they be in the 0z runs?

I would think so and definitely in the 6Z runs
wow that's expensive and unusual. Exciting.

Just saw an interesting discussion of this on TWC. They noted how, unlike in a Hurricane, they aren't flying into the storm (now over the Plains) but are flying over the Gulf of Mexico to get data from over the water there that they usually wouldn't get into the models.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:37 pm

EURO takes the LP into Point Pleasant. But do to its weakness the HP is so strong it fights it off and keeps everyone above I 78 as snow and it lasts for about 2 hours then as the LP goes ENE it flip back to snow. Interesting solution.

by **rb924119** Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:33 pm

WeatherBob wrote:I have a question , doesn’t, it seem that the models are not picking up the cold air damning down the east side of the of the Appalachian Mtns? I know this isn’t, a classic set up but it just looks strange on these models. 1038 high not moving to fast north of Maine and cold dry dense air now plunging south. Rb? Frank?

So, this is kind of a two-part answer. First, the high is retreating, not attacking. This makes a difference in the depth and effectiveness of the low-level cold transport, as attacking highs have more “oomph” with them. Think of momentum. Where are the worst winds/surge in a hurricane? Typically the southeastern quadrant because you have the actual wind speed combined with the forward momentum of the storm itself. Contrarily, the least surge/wind are on the northwestern side for the opposite reasons (wind against storm motion). Same idea with here with an attacking high, where the cold push is aided by the momentum of the incoming high, versus a retreating high where the cold push has to fight the momentum of the departing high.

Secondly, the lower- and mid-level lows are tracking basically over or even north/west of our area, which helps maximize warm air advection aloft. So even though you may be below freezing at the surface, you may be hitting 33-34° somewhere above you, thereby changing your observed precipitation type. These warm surges aloft are almost ALWAYS under-modeled, especially in situations where warmth is “favored”, like this one is.

by jaydoy Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:01 pm

Good evening guys, I haven’t posted for a while but do check in every now and then. So we moved a couple of months ago from Cranford to Atlantic Highlands, how are we looking down this way. If I read it correctly, it looks like we could get a lot of mixing but around 6” or are we pretty much torched here

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:17 pm

00z NAM keeps the faith, and even improved from 18z. 8-12” thump in the city before some sleet mixing in. Westchester gets pounded.

by **heehaw453** Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:48 pm

0Z GFS was solid. 850/700 mb lows pass around NYC. Much better for thermals. Someone is probably getting dry slotted tomorrow due the track of the lows.

by **billg315** Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:00 pm

heehaw453 wrote:0Z GFS was solid. 850/700 mb lows pass around NYC. Much better for thermals. Someone is probably getting dry slotted tomorrow due the track of the lows.

We were just looking at that dry slot possibility on the GFS on the chat. Unfortunately on the 0z GFS it's in my neck of the woods (probably from about Bucks County PA into Hunterdon County NJ. Not that this will necessarily be exactly where it ends up, but it would be my luck.

by Zhukov1945 Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:04 pm

billg315 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:0Z GFS was solid. 850/700 mb lows pass around NYC. Much better for thermals. Someone is probably getting dry slotted tomorrow due the track of the lows.

We were just looking at that dry slot possibility on the GFS on the chat. Unfortunately on the 0z GFS it's in my neck of the woods (probably from about Bucks County PA into Hunterdon County NJ. Not that this will necessarily be exactly where it ends up, but it would be my luck.

Feeling the same thing up by Clinton NJ

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