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12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:58 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Upton just issued warnings, Im rather shocked its for 12-16 inches. they mention heavy wet snow 45mph winds and power outages.

Yeah John they're not buying the short-range models. 7 p.m. tomorrow night per nam dew points below zero in the Hudson Valley and most of Connecticut and in the teens where we live that's not being overcome very easily I don't care how strong the low pressure is. This is an easy 6 in front end thump and I mean easy could easily get to a foot before any dry slot gets in here and then more snows on the back end good call by them
Do you believe that we get 12-16? just a hour ago you said 6-12, so your agree with NWS now? It still seems kinda up in the air a bit but glad to hear we can easily get at least 6 in maybe double that b4 any change and then back end. Is there anyway we do not dry slot?
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Upton just issued warnings, Im rather shocked its for 12-16 inches. they mention heavy wet snow 45mph winds and power outages.

Yeah John they're not buying the short-range models. 7 p.m. tomorrow night per nam dew points below zero in the Hudson Valley and most of Connecticut and in the teens where we live that's not being overcome very easily I don't care how strong the low pressure is. This is an easy 6 in front end thump and I mean easy could easily get to a foot before any dry slot gets in here and then more snows on the back end good call by them
Do you believe that we get 12-16? just a hour ago you said 6-12, so your agree with NWS now?  It still seems kinda up in the air a bit but glad to hear we can easily get at least 6 in maybe double that b4 any change and then back end. Is there anyway we do not dry slot?

My gut amd past history tells me this is 12 plus in
is a good forecast but you can't deny what happened on the models today especially the short-term ones so you have to give a little hesitation.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:05 pm

I think there will be blizzard warnings for coastal jersey (northern part) southern westchester NY maybe northern, Long Island and coastal CT. Not that this matters on snow totals but it is concerning in terms of wet snow stuck and weighing down things, NWS does mention trees breaking. Power outages to me are far worse in the winter. Also all that wind, with sleet that would hurt like a mother if your out in it, im going to need to shovel every several hours so as to not have to dig it all out at once (got 2 cars on street to do). At least they finished the street closure for paving for us, lets hope the snow plow doesn't destroy it being its so new.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:06 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Upton just issued warnings, Im rather shocked its for 12-16 inches. they mention heavy wet snow 45mph winds and power outages.

Yeah John they're not buying the short-range models. 7 p.m. tomorrow night per nam dew points below zero in the Hudson Valley and most of Connecticut and in the teens where we live that's not being overcome very easily I don't care how strong the low pressure is. This is an easy 6 in front end thump and I mean easy could easily get to a foot before any dry slot gets in here and then more snows on the back end good call by them
Do you believe that we get 12-16? just a hour ago you said 6-12, so your agree with NWS now?  It still seems kinda up in the air a bit but glad to hear we can easily get at least 6 in maybe double that b4 any change and then back end. Is there anyway we do not dry slot?

My gut amd past history tells me this is 12 plus in
is a good forecast but you can't deny what happened on the models today especially the short-term ones so you have to give a little  hesitation.
Oh I am, not going to make any expectations so im happy with whatever I get unless its nearly nothing or rain (which is highly unlikely), lets just see how it unfolds.
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Post by WeatherBob Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:17 pm

I have a question , doesn’t, it seem that the models are not picking up the cold air damning down the east side of the of the Appalachian Mtns? I know this isn’t, a classic set up but it just looks strange on these models. 1038 high not moving to fast north of Maine and cold dry dense air now plunging south. Rb? Frank?
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Post by jimv45 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:19 pm

Looking good Hyde, Albany up us to winter storm warning 12-18

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:21 pm

Windshield wipers in full effect today eeh?
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 19c654800308c5eb38ab4e149c95ff82

After waking up and seeing the models overnight I knew it was going to be one of those days. .
AS stated numerous times it is a heck of a set up. That 50/50 low is tremendous and it is sliding out a bit - these events always come in a bit faster than called and move out faster.
Their seems to be a consensus that the NW trend did occur no denying that but that it will tick SE as I said this morning, so the bleeding looks to have stopped from that.
That 1039 HP over Quebec was a 1032 two days ago and now is a 1039 - you are not ramming a 998 LP into that block NO WAY!! So it will take teh path of least resistance as Nature will always do and once it gains a certain latitude it will get shoved east. DO NOT UNDERSTIMATE THE POWER OF AN ARCTIC HP - This one came straight out of the Canadian NW Arctic.

So we have a Godzilla storm peeps and let's enjoy that fact and......Xmas treat in the works peeps. That is for LR thread but possibility is there.
A S/SE trend still possible (another 20-35 miles? so lets get the rally caps going!!
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Giphy

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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:25 pm

Seems to me that if you look at the setup, and the upper level (850, 925) temps, there really isn't any indication that this should mix with sleet/frz or change to rain anywhere north/northwest of a line from Salem County NJ to about Monmouth County NJ and then brushing the southern shore of LI (if even that far north). If it does eventually mix anywhere north of there I would expect it to be very briefly before ending again as all snow. I really think that anywhere northwest of that line should be predominantly snow and at these rates that's at least 10".
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:43 pm

Upton’s latest bet:

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 55418210
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:46 pm

18z GFS ticks SE and makes all the difference for the coast
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Gfs_ms13
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:49 pm

GFS is steadfast actually ticked a little Southeast from 12z very nice hit for our area
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Post by bloc1357 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:50 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z GFS ticks SE and makes all the difference for the coast
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Gfs_ms13

That looks like some heavy stuff right over the island.....sometimes you gotta smell the rain to get the heavy snow

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:52 pm

GFS run was solid.  The 700 mb low goes over NYC south west to north east. 800 mb is slightly south of the 700 mb but same path.

Some dry slotting effect, but overall thermals looked much better.  We are not going to know exact areas of subsidence or convective areas until now casting...


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:53 pm

Definitely a south/colder trend on 18z runs so far.

I am concerned about this dry slot showing up. Because of how much frontogenesis sets up in central PA into NY, and the surface low is WAY SE of there (off the NJ coast), there is going to be an area of subsidence, or sinking air, in between the 'mega' band and the low itself. That would be somewhere between eastern PA and WNJ. Now, if the CBB band trends S-SE, it likely means we're seeing better tracking of the mid-level lows and it would eliminate the risk of a dry slot completely.

You can see it on the GFS, but regardless, it was still a good run!

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Gfs_asnow_neus_9

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:53 pm

Im hoping for a few more ticks SE

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Post by gigs68 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:57 pm

why does LI have no color?
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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:58 pm

Long way to go with this. Remember, we're still almost 24 hours from the start of this storm for most people so we could wake up tomorrow with a much clearer picture of how this is setting up. That said, we're still looking pretty solid for a decent event for most people on here.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:07 pm

Southern edge of 18z GFS and 12 z Euro are as close to a perfect match as I have ever seen. Almost looks like the same map if you are just looking at NJ/LI etc.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:08 pm

GEFS are significantly SE. Notice the orientation of this snowfall map is a comma shape. Indicative that a CCB band is try to develop over the area. We could be looking at a situation where we get a heavy thump of front-end snow, followed either by dry slotting or mix, then back to snow as the CCB wraps across the area.

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 GEFSNE-prec-meansnacc-048-1

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:10 pm

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 G6m0rhy

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:11 pm

Lets keep that SE movement going!! Love that GIF......wish I could like it more than once!!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:21 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Definitely a south/colder trend on 18z runs so far.

I am concerned about this dry slot showing up. Because of how much frontogenesis sets up in central PA into NY, and the surface low is WAY SE of there (off the NJ coast), there is going to be an area of subsidence, or sinking air, in between the 'mega' band and the low itself. That would be somewhere between eastern PA and WNJ. Now, if the CBB band trends S-SE, it likely means we're seeing better tracking of the mid-level lows and it would eliminate the risk of a dry slot completely.

You can see it on the GFS, but regardless, it was still a good run!

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Gfs_asnow_neus_9
this is very nice and makes me happy. The heavy bands right north of center crush my area. May be some sleet but brief. Winds are go b cranking so b a lot huge drifts if we see upper end over 12. Which my warning caps it at 16.
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:23 pm

The GEFS have not wavered from 6 or 12 Z. Its mean has been basically the same with an inch of two each time across the area for snow.
The LP placement has again been within normal wobbles. The OP has been up down and all around, like so many weenies.
Again the cold is dense and a 1039 HP is mint. What till the snowpack sets in and the low temps turn tnis into a block of ice when we are in the teens to single digits. Thats for after the storm.


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:28 pm

@amugs wrote:The GEFS have not 2averes from 6 or 12 Z. Its mean has been basically the same with an inch of two each time across the area for snow.
The LP placement has again been within normal wobbles. The OP has been up down and all around, like so many weenies.
Again the cold is dense and a 1039 HP is mint. What till the snowpack sets in and the low temps turn tnis into a block of ice when we are in the teens to single digits. Thats for after the storm.
yeah not look forward to that that's how I broke my bumper on my last car. Need get a trowel or metal post
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:39 pm

Front Genesis is where its going to pour snow and its just north of the deep red on this map

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 20201212
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 C216ff10

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 10 Fb_img13

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