12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

heehaw453 wrote:0Z GFS was solid. 850/700 mb lows pass around NYC. Much better for thermals. Someone is probably getting dry slotted tomorrow due the track of the lows.

We were just looking at that dry slot possibility on the GFS on the chat. Unfortunately on the 0z GFS it's in my neck of the woods (probably from about Bucks County PA into Hunterdon County NJ. Not that this will necessarily be exactly where it ends up, but it would be my luck.

billg315 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:0Z GFS was solid. 850/700 mb lows pass around NYC. Much better for thermals. Someone is probably getting dry slotted tomorrow due the track of the lows.

We were just looking at that dry slot possibility on the GFS on the chat. Unfortunately on the 0z GFS it's in my neck of the woods (probably from about Bucks County PA into Hunterdon County NJ. Not that this will necessarily be exactly where it ends up, but it would be my luck.

Feeling the same thing up by Clinton NJ

jaydoy wrote:Good evening guys, I haven’t posted for a while but do check in every now and then. So we moved a couple of months ago from Cranford to Atlantic Highlands, how are we looking down this way. If I read it correctly, it looks like we could get a lot of mixing but around 6” or are we pretty much torched here

Looking warm. Probably will end up with 3-6 inches with sleet included in that range.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jaydoy wrote:Good evening guys, I haven’t posted for a while but do check in every now and then. So we moved a couple of months ago from Cranford to Atlantic Highlands, how are we looking down this way. If I read it correctly, it looks like we could get a lot of mixing but around 6” or are we pretty much torched here

Looking warm. Probably will end up with 3-6 inches with sleet included in that range.

That sucks, but I guess it’s better than nothing. Thank you Frank

Jeeze the deathband over PA on CMC is insane!

Just saw that, Jman haha all of the Canadian products are like that. And I darn well know that will be the result because I’m not there -_-

rb924119 wrote:Just saw that, Jman haha all of the Canadian products are like that. And I darn well know that will be the result because I’m not there -_-

And the CMC looks more west too than 18z, lets see how it plays out, TT hasnt loaded yet, did you get the full run yet?

No, still stuck lol

rb924119 wrote:No, still stuck lol

you ever use weather.us, i like it and the GEM or CMC is out, is the snow depth map a good indicator of how much snow we get? If so most are in a 1-5 inch area around the metro.....And most of LI is 0-.8 that would be such a letdown.

Did note that the GFS Op is a southeast outlier to its own ensemble, so tread with caution. The ensembles look much more like the Canadian/GEM suite; high and tight.

wth?! CMC brings 3-4 hrs of heavy frz to NYC area, thats really bad news in two ways if true.

rb924119 wrote:Did note that the GFS Op is a southeast outlier to its own ensemble, so tread with caution. The ensembles look much more like the Canadian/GEM suite; high and tight.

This is good or bad for NYC metro and centeal NNJ?

0Z GFS snow depth map accounting for sleet and freezing rain

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:No, still stuck lol

you ever use weather.us, i like it and the GEM or CMC is out, is the snow depth map a good indicator of how much snow we get? If so most are in a 1-5 inch area around the metro.....And most of LI is 0-.8 that would be such a letdown.

No, never have, but I believe it’s founded by one of the guys from WeatherBell, if I recall correctly? And to be fair, I don’t know. I’m not sure of whether or not that algorithm takes things like ground temperatures into account or not. It might be helpful in separating pure snow from mixed precip in some of the other maps, but I’m not 100% on that.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:0Z GFS snow depth map accounting for sleet and freezing rain

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020121600/gfs_asnowd_neus_9.png

I wont show you the CMC from weather.us, its aweful. and a long period of frz which has not even come into the dicussion at all.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Did note that the GFS Op is a southeast outlier to its own ensemble, so tread with caution. The ensembles look much more like the Canadian/GEM suite; high and tight.

This is good or bad for NYC metro and centeal NNJ?

Bad for snow - would mean that the low- and mid-level lows are further north/west, and therefore, warmer outcomes versus the Op.

00z runs have been much more encouraging for the city, overall. The “NW trend” cliff-jumping has seized on Wx Twitter, also.

Just caught a glimpse of low-res UKMET - yikes. Mike (Math) will probably like it lmao

SoulSingMG wrote:00z runs have been much more encouraging for the city, overall. The “NW trend” cliff-jumping has seized on Wx Twitter, also.

actually no the 00z models are not looking good for us at all we talked about it during chat. I would push expectations to 6 inches, with the potential for more, am i wrong guys?

SoulSingMG wrote:00z runs have been much more encouraging for the city, overall. The “NW trend” cliff-jumping has seized on Wx Twitter, also.

I’ve gotta respectfully disagree to an extent. There’s broad consensus that the Lowe- and mid-level lows are going to close off and pass either directly over or even north of NYC. That’s not a recipe for a big snow if you’re south of 84. It’s probably a 5-8” 4-hour burst of snow from the initial warm advection, and then snizzle or a light mix as those lows pass overhead with the dry slot. Even the snow totals being modeled in the main band over PA look to be a bit too far south given the look of the column-deep forcing, and actually would align with my thinking almost identically, or even a little north of that. Secondly, I don’t see a large-scale backend working for a large portion of our coverage area, save our northern brethren up there in CP, Doc, SnowMan, Mikey and Jim country, and MAYBE a small sliver near Sandy Hook. The synoptic setup just doesn’t argue for it, on my opinion.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:00z runs have been much more encouraging for the city, overall. The “NW trend” cliff-jumping has seized on Wx Twitter, also.

actually no the 00z models are not looking good for us at all we talked about it during chat. I would push expectations to 6 inches, with the potential for more, am i wrong guys?

Hmm, hearing a different tune being sung elsewhere. But I could be wrong? GFS, NAM, HREF all look good for NYC with shifts in our favor, no?

UKMET is ~9” in NYC. 15 miles south, ~2” lol

Another city (and LI!) nod    

New UKMET



Old UKMET

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:00z runs have been much more encouraging for the city, overall. The “NW trend” cliff-jumping has seized on Wx Twitter, also.

actually no the 00z models are not looking good for us at all we talked about it during chat. I would push expectations to 6 inches, with the potential for more, am i wrong guys?

Hmm, hearing a different tune being sung elsewhere. But I could be wrong? GFS, NAM, HREF all look good for NYC with shifts in our favor, no?

I'm hearing the same thing good model runs tonight except for the Canadian models from what I'm hearing is that the troughs shortwave is weaker then the 12z runs. hence that would slide it more East and bring the heaviest precipitation South instead of up into Central New York that's from the National Weather Service in Red Sox Suck

If you look at the nam 00z it closes h5 about 6 hours later when it's already Northeast of us we don't want this closing off too soon unless it shifts south of us which I don't think will happen so we need a weaker shortwave/trough then what was modeled at 12 Z and that's what happened tonight so far