Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:25 pm

algae888 wrote:We need this to come back north. Wherever the low initially forms it will sit and loop de loop until it occluds. We aare playing with fire to solely rely on the coastal

I guess it depends on what you believe to be the most potential. I'm thinking give the coastal time to form under out latitude and a slowly maturing coastal can probably do more for us than the WAA snow which will tend to wane usually more quickly than modeled anyway as the transfer occurs. If the coastal starts to mature off ACY that'll benefit NE much more than us. If starts its maturation process around Ocean City MD or even 50 miles south of there, then I think that could be very nice for us.

I don't buy the GFS QPF being so low with that run. Not for a minute...

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:26 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The 18Z GFS is good at the mid levels. Maturing system slowly crawling to the benchmark. CCB stuff won't be known for sometime. We want to be NW of these mid level lows otherwise it'll be congrats Binghamton again.

GFS looked wonky to me. Although the H5 levels looked improved from 12Z, there was a lack of a potent CCB even though the low was right on the BM. I’m not really concerned at this point; I’ve seen too many times where the GFS precip field is weak or disjointed on the NW side of the low.

by **algae888** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:32 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
algae888 wrote:We need this to come back north. Wherever the low initially forms it will sit and loop de loop until it occluds. We aare playing with fire to solely rely on the coastal

I guess it depends on what you believe to be the most potential. I'm thinking give the coastal time to form under out latitude and a slowly maturing coastal can probably do more for us than the WAA snow which will tend to wane usually more quickly than modeled anyway as the transfer occurs. If the coastal starts to mature off ACY that'll benefit NE much more than us. If starts its maturation process around Ocean City MD or even 50 miles south of there, then I think that could be very nice for us.

I don't buy the GFS QPF being so low with that run. Not for a minute...

What I'm getting at heehaw is that the block is to strong so wherever the low initially forms it will just sit and spin and loop for 12+ hours with the best precip rates to its west. By the time it reaches our latitude the best dynamics are gone

by **amugs** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:34 pm

Nice cluster GEFS
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 8 DBAB086D-F368-44E9-9E6A-ECB21647E11D.png.2f4a3900d465250d41482af5b802b856

by **algae888** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:38 pm

The gfs twin just crushes us. Primary in Central ohio transfer further north compared to the old gfs. 1 to 2 feet for our area

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:43 pm

algae888 wrote:The gfs twin just crushes us. Primary in Central ohio transfer further north compared to the old gfs. 1 to 2 feet for our area

You cannot make this stuff up, who knows is basically the case. Isn't that the OLD GFS we arent supposed to use anymore?

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:45 pm

algae888 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
algae888 wrote:We need this to come back north. Wherever the low initially forms it will sit and loop de loop until it occluds. We aare playing with fire to solely rely on the coastal

I guess it depends on what you believe to be the most potential. I'm thinking give the coastal time to form under out latitude and a slowly maturing coastal can probably do more for us than the WAA snow which will tend to wane usually more quickly than modeled anyway as the transfer occurs. If the coastal starts to mature off ACY that'll benefit NE much more than us. If starts its maturation process around Ocean City MD or even 50 miles south of there, then I think that could be very nice for us.

I don't buy the GFS QPF being so low with that run. Not for a minute...

What I'm getting at heehaw is that the block is to strong so wherever the low initially forms it will just sit and spin and loop for 12+ hours with the best precip rates to its west. By the time it reaches our latitude the best dynamics are gone

The EPS don't support lack of progression or further intensification at all. Neither does the WPC. In fact the storm goes through further intensification as it heads into Gulf of Maine. Now I believe what will happen is regeneration of the storm and it will cycle. Whether or not we get into CCB will really depend on the maturation process and the proximity of us to the 700/850 mb lows. We are a long way from knowing any of this. That's why I'm very cautious right now...

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 8 Wpc13

by **Joe Snow** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:47 pm

Good evening everyone, I'll take 6 inches or more of snow any day of the week.

Bring it

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
445 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179-292145-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
445 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the potential for a coastal storm to bring 6 or more inches
of snow to the area late Sunday night into Tuesday. Additionally,
strong northeast winds, coastal flooding, and beach erosion will be
possible. At this time, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with the low track and timing to be specific with details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

by **nutleyblizzard** Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:47 pm

algae888 wrote:The gfs twin just crushes us. Primary in Central ohio transfer further north compared to the old gfs. 1 to 2 feet for our area

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 8 17280310

Jesus

by **essexcountypete** Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:42 pm

Cautious optimism. Must. Remain. Calm.

Cautious optimism. Cautious optimism! CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM! SUBSIDENCE! WARM NOSE! CHANGING OVER TO SLEET! MUST! REMAIN! CALM! affraid

BLAAAAAAAAARG!!!

(The sad life of a snow weenie when you're in the 18" bullseye and THERE'S STILL 72 HOURS TO GO!!!!)

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:47 pm

essexcountypete wrote:Cautious optimism. Must. Remain. Calm.

Cautious optimism. Cautious optimism! CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM! SUBSIDENCE! WARM NOSE! CHANGING OVER TO SLEET! MUST! REMAIN! CALM! BLAAAAAAAAARG!!!

(The sad like of a snow weenie when you're in the 18" bullseye and THERE'S STILL 72 HOURS TO GO!!!!)

LOL!

Now would be the time to open up a Rolaids , Valium and Alka Seltzer stand on this board,LOL.One thing I do know, these models are going to be dancing all over the place for a few days.

by **billg315** Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:49 pm

18z Euro starting to roll now. Not model hugging. Just noting it. lol

by **Grselig** Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:56 pm

billg315 wrote:18z Euro starting to roll now. Not model hugging. Just noting it. lol

Liar

As stated by someone far wiser than me up above. @essexcountypete Stay calm. Windshield wiper effect. Start drinking now. Wait till Sunday morning for the good stuff. Don't panic. Don't allow yourself to smile. Don't frown. Don't cry. just hope. Dammit. lets go Euro

by **GreyBeard** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:19 pm

You guys are all starting to lose it.

Screw CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM. Commit fully to it, or not at all. What's there to be cautious about?

I am hoping guys like SENJ and the rest of the south jersey crew finally get the goods. Hopefully your patience will finally pay off with this one.

by **Irish** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:25 pm

GreyBeard wrote:You guys are all starting to lose it.

Screw CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM. Commit fully to it, or not at all. What's there to be cautious about?

I am hoping guys like SENJ and the rest of the south jersey crew finally get the goods. Hopefully your patience will finally pay off with this one.

Yeah, there's definitely no such thing as jinxing a weather system, however, it is hysterical reading this stuff!

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:27 pm

And the euro is literally wide right...nada for anyone. LOL Cant make it up

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:And the euro is literally wide right...nada for anyone. LOL Cant make it up

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 8 Ecmwf-53

Dont worry though...beware the......

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 8 Tenor

by **billg315** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:30 pm

sroc4 wrote:And the euro is literally wide right...nada for anyone. LOL Cant make it up

My Euro run froze at hour 90 but the surface Low was waaaay east of the last run. Do you think the model is just chasing convection there?

by **sroc4** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:38 pm

billg315 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:And the euro is literally wide right...nada for anyone. LOL Cant make it up
My Euro run froze at hour 90 but the surface Low was waaaay east of the last run. Do you think the model is just chasing convection there?

18z euro (and 06z) only goes out to hr 90. Based on 500 it looks like the Low is in he right position to me. But the question is 500 correct on this run? My bet is no.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 8 Bnbn10

by **billg315** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:39 pm

Well @rb924119 that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:49 pm

billg315 wrote:Well @rb924119 that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

I have mixed emotions about the runs today with respect to my thoughts presented earlier. On the one hand, I definitely didn’t like the southward shift across guidance, and it’s all thanks to that pesky strip of shear vorticity and associated confluence that I outlined. On the other hand, though, I am REALLY liking the eastward shift and more ragged appearance of the overall structure, as it lends credence towards my ideas of a later attempt at consolidation that can never be fully achieved until it’s too late for us. This would be a direct consequence of the ridge positioning and eastward propagation working constructively with the confluence to shear the storm structure out and elongate it as it tries to move eastward in response to the ridge but is forced to be squished beneath block.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:56 pm

rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well @rb924119 that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

I have mixed emotions about the runs today with respect to my thoughts presented earlier. On the one hand, I definitely didn’t like the southward shift across guidance, and it’s all thanks to that pesky strip of shear vorticity and associated confluence that I outlined. On the other hand, though, I am REALLY liking the eastward shift and more ragged appearance of the overall structure, as it lends credence towards my ideas of a later attempt at consolidation that can never be fully achieved until it’s too late for us. This would be a direct consequence of the ridge positioning and eastward propagation working constructively with the confluence to shear the storm structure out and elongate it as it tries to move eastward in response to the ridge but is forced to be squished beneath block.

holy cow that is a mouth full

...in layman's terms.. pls

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:58 pm

Just peaking at the site don't want to get excited..but as far as tonight goes HOLY MOLY is there wind we just had a gust of 29mph...dog almost blew over.. current temp is *25 real feel 10*

by **billg315** Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:09 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well @rb924119 that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

I have mixed emotions about the runs today with respect to my thoughts presented earlier. On the one hand, I definitely didn’t like the southward shift across guidance, and it’s all thanks to that pesky strip of shear vorticity and associated confluence that I outlined. On the other hand, though, I am REALLY liking the eastward shift and more ragged appearance of the overall structure, as it lends credence towards my ideas of a later attempt at consolidation that can never be fully achieved until it’s too late for us. This would be a direct consequence of the ridge positioning and eastward propagation working constructively with the confluence to shear the storm structure out and elongate it as it tries to move eastward in response to the ridge but is forced to be squished beneath block.
holy cow that is a mouth full ...in layman's terms.. pls

Cliff Note Version: If we don't get screwed by an easing block and northward trend giving some of us more rain and others lighter snow, we'll get screwed by a squished system being squeezed off to the east too far offshore for any of us. Or in other words, rb still really doesn't like our chances. How's that for me oversimplifying rb's much more detailed and scientific analysis? lol.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:17 pm

billg315 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well @rb924119 that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

I have mixed emotions about the runs today with respect to my thoughts presented earlier. On the one hand, I definitely didn’t like the southward shift across guidance, and it’s all thanks to that pesky strip of shear vorticity and associated confluence that I outlined. On the other hand, though, I am REALLY liking the eastward shift and more ragged appearance of the overall structure, as it lends credence towards my ideas of a later attempt at consolidation that can never be fully achieved until it’s too late for us. This would be a direct consequence of the ridge positioning and eastward propagation working constructively with the confluence to shear the storm structure out and elongate it as it tries to move eastward in response to the ridge but is forced to be squished beneath block.
holy cow that is a mouth full ...in layman's terms.. pls

Cliff Note Version: If we don't get screwed by an easing block and northward trend giving some of us more rain and others lighter snow, we'll get screwed by a squished system being squeezed off to the east too far offshore for any of us. Or in other words, rb still really doesn't like our chances. How's that for me oversimplifying rb's much more detailed and scientific analysis? lol.

So either way rb at least feels we see nothing, theres no in between? Not saying this is be all end all 72 hrs out but if it's not gonna be a big deal I need to know by Sat night.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:24 pm

billg315 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well @rb924119 that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

I have mixed emotions about the runs today with respect to my thoughts presented earlier. On the one hand, I definitely didn’t like the southward shift across guidance, and it’s all thanks to that pesky strip of shear vorticity and associated confluence that I outlined. On the other hand, though, I am REALLY liking the eastward shift and more ragged appearance of the overall structure, as it lends credence towards my ideas of a later attempt at consolidation that can never be fully achieved until it’s too late for us. This would be a direct consequence of the ridge positioning and eastward propagation working constructively with the confluence to shear the storm structure out and elongate it as it tries to move eastward in response to the ridge but is forced to be squished beneath block.
holy cow that is a mouth full ...in layman's terms.. pls

Cliff Note Version: If we don't get screwed by an easing block and northward trend giving some of us more rain and others lighter snow, we'll get screwed by a squished system being squeezed off to the east too far offshore for any of us. Or in other words, rb still really doesn't like our chances. How's that for me oversimplifying rb's much more detailed and scientific analysis? lol.

Thanks for trying..but I think I like his version better since I did not know what he was saying... Very Happy

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:31 pm

DT’s (wxrisk) write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-thoughts-on-major-noreaster-jan-31-feb-feb-2-c7bc32741d66

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