01/31 Possible Winter Storm

200 mile shift straight north at H5 in one run. I’ll take it!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Frank_Wx wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

00z ICON

Madonne

Sorry. Here’s the full run.

Cazzo!!!

Ok Frank has never or not that i remember said Cazzo lol, holy smokes!!

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Quite something

CMC tracks the ULL NNE while GFS is ENE. End result likely a blend because I don’t see how the CMC gets as far north as it did but let’s see

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Quite something

CMC tracks the ULL NNE while GFS is ENE. End result likely a blend because I don’t see how the CMC gets as far north as it did but let’s see

Ahhh, ok. So the battle line has been drawn for this event :p ok, Frank, game on!! Haha

Very good trends thus far with the 0Z runs. Models starting to bump north. Let’s see what the Euro has to say about that. It’s been the most southern model.

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Truthfully rb...I've already got several hotels picked out within the cmc jackpot zone in nwnj, and we got our whole travel plan laid out, including free cancellation through Saturday afternoon in case we end up scoring big at home. Let's just say, that jackpot is gonna be hitting me one way or the other this time! lol

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Quite something

CMC tracks the ULL NNE while GFS is ENE. End result likely a blend because I don’t see how the CMC gets as far north as it did but let’s see

Ahhh, ok. So the battle line has been drawn for this event :p ok, Frank, game on!! Haha

Well by that I meant it literally ends up well inland of northern New England. Just looks funny on a loop

SENJsnowman wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Truthfully rb...I've already got several hotels picked out within the cmc jackpot zone in nwnj, and we got our whole travel plan laid out, including free cancellation through Saturday afternoon in case we end up scoring big at home. Let's just say, that jackpot is gonna be hitting me one way or the other this time! lol

Hahahaha that’s amazing!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

That bullseye is literally over my parents’ house.......and I’ll be off from work

Quite something

CMC tracks the ULL NNE while GFS is ENE. End result likely a blend because I don’t see how the CMC gets as far north as it did but let’s see

Ahhh, ok. So the battle line has been drawn for this event :p ok, Frank, game on!! Haha

Well by that I meant it literally ends up well inland of northern New England. Just looks funny on a loop

Oo haha I see. Yeah, that’s probably just a rendering issue, honestly. If you look at the wind barbs, there’s lobe near Nantucket, and based on my understanding, that would probably verify as the actual closed mid-level low center......assuming this run occurred verbatim.

Ohhh interesting you’re right now that I look at it

GFS seems to have issues (don’t be so shocked) handling this one. The GFS Para looks like the CMC and the GEFS are NW of the OP. Seems to me like we actually did see the north shift return tonight

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS seems to have issues (don’t be so shocked) handling this one. The GFS Para looks like the CMC and the GEFS are NW of the OP. Seems to me like we actually did see the north shift return tonight

I haven’t looked at the surface, but based on what saw at H5 this would make sense. The question is, does it continue to the “extreme” that I favor, or, do we end up with Scott’s baby bear, happy medium, board-crushing Godzilla? We have about three full days to iron that out lmaooo

nutleyblizzard wrote:

I-95 Special if I ever saw one, right there lol

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Compared to the CMC it's pretty underwhelming if you ask me. IT's all where you live regarding which model you prefer, but I like that 23 over my house. The 8.5 on the UKIE doesn't do it for me.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Compared to the CMC it's pretty underwhelming if you ask me. IT's all where you live regarding which model you prefer, but I like that 23 over my house. The 8.5 on the UKIE doesn't do it for me.

Yeah even skunks anyone north of NYC in NY by a few miles but crushes NYC with a foot, lol a cut off like that would be quite something. I wil lsign with you on the CMC CP, can we make peace from the xmas eve debacle on that note lol

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS seems to have issues (don’t be so shocked) handling this one. The GFS Para looks like the CMC and the GEFS are NW of the OP. Seems to me like we actually did see the north shift return tonight

It's having an issue with QPF output just like it did with the December storm. At 00z CMC, v16, ICON, UKIE, all give nyc metro 1.5+ and gfs is about .60. I hate the gfs and can't wait until it's officially replaced. Crap model.

Euro says no snow for us

Euro a big disappointment for most of forum unless your down in Senjsnowmans area. No consensus tonight at all. Tomorrow night the models will come into better agreement for better or worse depending where you live.

00z Euro was a major woof for most. Disappointing end to the 00z suite. Lets see what tomorrow, err today, brings.

And the UKMET is now 1'+ for the NY Metro. Whereas last run is showed bupkis. As CP says give the models another day to sort this out. Coastal storms are capricious. Those that monitored Boxing Day can attest to that.

6z GFS summary: Surface Low transfers off NC/VA coast begins to move ENE but spins near NJ coast for awhile. Mid level the circulation center is around the SNJ coast a little easy of Delaware Bay. Heaviest snow axis is Philly Metro across NJ to just south of NYC proper, about a 6-10” system with a 8-12” bullseye near Monmouth/Middlesex county NJ. If you’re just N/NW of the main axis (NWNJ and NYC northern burbs) it’s a 4-8” storm with only minor accumulation anywhere north of that. Some mixing at SNJ shore so minor accumulation there.

I like where the low is located at the mid-upper levels on the GFS but it seems to have the surface Low a bit southeast (which is what the Euro tries to do - to a more dramatic extent). Also GFS is more stingy on moisture than some other models which means the big (8”-plus) totals are more confined and areas away from heaviest snow get more modest amounts.

Two positives and a negative:
Positives: 1.) I’m always told look at the placement of the mid/upper levels to find who will get the best snows and they look to be placed well; 2. rb, who is fantastic with this stuff seems to feel strongly this comes a bit further north which initially looked bad, but not so bad if you compare to the Euro;
Negative: I don’t like that the Euro is kicking this OTS to our south and that the surface on the GFS initially goes that way before getting reeled in, as we’ve missed a lot of action  to our south so far this winter, so that track has been blazed so to speak.

Your difference with GFS and CMC - the former showing a N&W cutoff and latter a widespread Godzilla - is with how they handle the upper level jet.

CMC - neutral trough turning negative. Low pressure tucked into coast as it stays west of the western most point of the jet streak seen over Maine.



GFS - positive tilted trough and an upstream jet streak that is WELL off the east coast. Nowhere close to CMC in terms of upper air structure and low placement.



The Canadian is explosive because of the dynamics aloft. Question is can it be trusted over the GFS and EURO?