01/31 Possible Winter Storm

The GFS Ensembles are vastly different from the OP. That is a red flag in itself.

12z CMC - very different from 00z. We're seeing a south trend with sharp cut-offs to the north. However, I don't think this is the final solution. At all actually.

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS Ensembles are vastly different from the OP. That is a red flag in itself.

LOL. We play this model shuffle quite often. I'll be interested to see the CMC ensembles. If you have access to them when they come up, please post them.

I'll say it again GFS is garbage. V16 much more plausible IMO. How does GFS give NYC .30 LE? Plus thermals are questionable also. Garbage.

wOW cmc has main axis of snow over south jersey and LI, so much for last nights run CP, haha not done yet we shall see but these south trends are not good for us up here even just barely north of NYC, I mean I still see 6+ which is good but sorry im greedy I wanna be in that crazy stuff.

Frank_Wx wrote:12z CMC - very different from 00z. We're seeing a south trend with sharp cut-offs to the north. However, I don't think this is the final solution. At all actually.

As a southern trend or coming back north? Can it go any further south? I am barely in the game with these latest runs, 20 miles to my north sees 3 inches versus 6-10 here.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:12z CMC - very different from 00z. We're seeing a south trend with sharp cut-offs to the north. However, I don't think this is the final solution. At all actually.

As a southern trend or coming back north?  Can it go any further south? I am barely in the game with these latest runs, 20 miles to my north sees 3 inches versus 6-10 here.

I think the precip/banding will be distributed more evenly N&W given the dynamics at play, but the CMC/GFS globals are struggling. Ensembles and hi-res models may be my preference right now. UKMET coming in now and is an I-95 special

Yeah. UKIE just drops about 1.5' on the the I95 and points NW. Glad this storm is just so straightforward. LOL. The trending is not done with this at all.

heehaw453 wrote:Yeah. UKIE just drops about 1.5' on the the I95 and points NW. Glad this storm is just so straightforward.  LOL.  The trending is not done with this at all.  

still very sharp cutoff for southern NY hudson valley, thats too close for comfort, and what happened to CT and eastward, they are getting almost nothing now, as friends are asking me saying they hearing 10 inches for eastern and central CT? Or is the model not in range?

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS Ensembles are vastly different from the OP. That is a red flag in itself.

this is good, i always think the ensembles have a better grasp and those are huge amounts for the ensembles, would love to see some of the higher individuals.

Is it better/worse/indifferent to be in/near the bullseye this far out?

dsix85 wrote:Is it better/worse/indifferent to be in/near the bullseye this far out?

I want to be in the bull's eye Tuesday afternoon. All joking aside we are now 60 hours away from start time so it's not too soon to be in the bull's eye in my opinion. What you want to look for now is trends and the trend has been a southward shift of the precipitation field.

algae888 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:Is it better/worse/indifferent to be in/near the bullseye this far out?

I want to be in the bull's eye Tuesday afternoon. All joking aside we are now 60 hours away from start time so it's not too soon to be in the bull's eye in my opinion.  What you want to look for now is trends and the trend has been a southward shift of the precipitation field.

Al what you thinking for us atm? I understand can change at drop hat 6-12 maybe?

I feel like the gold post are narrowing. I am highly confident that Binghamton will not get 30" of snow and we will turn to rain. I am all also fairly confident that we will not Wiff. I agree with Frank that there will be more precipitation on the Northwest side of the low. I like where sitting right now especially for the coastal plain

Do we have a decent idea of a start end time for this?

jmanley32 wrote:Do we have a decent idea of a start end time for this?

Right now some light over running precipitation could start late Sunday night through early Monday morning but the meat and potatoes come late Monday morning through Tuesday morning

CMC ensembles are much different than the OP. Similar to GEFS. This solution shows me there are a lot of more tucked solutions that what the op showed.

heehaw453 wrote:CMC ensembles are much different than the OP.  Similar to GEFS.  This solution shows me there are a lot of more tucked solutions that what the op showed.

Thats insane for a ensemble!! There must be some roids runs in there to get that high totals on the ensembles!

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Do we have a decent idea of a start end time for this?

Right now some light over running precipitation could start late Sunday night through early Monday morning but the meat and potatoes come late Monday morning through Tuesday morning

Okay so Tuesday afternoon things would be clearing out?

Its becoming clear, although we shall see where the Euro comes in, that the prior erratic windshield wiper effects are no longer in play



But We probably will still see a little waffling back NW then perhaps back SE before its all is saidf and done, but much smoother and shorter back and forths.

sroc4 wrote:Its becoming clear, although we shall see where the Euro comes in, that the prior erratic windshield wiper effects are no longer in play



But We probably will still see a little waffling back NW then perhaps back SE before its all is saidf and done, but much smoother and shorter back and forths.  

LOL I love the broken ones, thats how its felt.

Euro rolling

EURO GOING TO SHOW A HIT FLOW IS MRIDIONAL ITS COMING _ SE PLAY IS NO MORE

OH BOY BUCKLE UP PEEPS!!