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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:07 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:

It's that jet blasting the base of the trough why I think this is a large scoped event on this one. I also think the storm will blow up a bit more than modeled too.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:11 am

@dsix85 wrote:Frank- why is this such a long duration event? I feel within 12-24 hours of the storm arriving the start/stop time always speeds up. Any reason why this is different?

Dual HP's - to the north and east of the low - and pig low south of Greenland. A literal traffic jam.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_16

This can still change though. If any of those pieces slide north or east, it gives room for our storm to slip east faster.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:13 am

The western ridge and NE confluence continues trending stronger each consecutive GFS run

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs_z500trend_namer_8

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:15 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The western ridge and NE confluence continues trending stronger each consecutive GFS run

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs_z500trend_namer_8

I assume that means good things for us?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:18 am

@Irish wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The western ridge and NE confluence continues trending stronger each consecutive GFS run

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs_z500trend_namer_8

I assume that means good things for us?

Yes, the ridge amplifies the trough upstream and the confluence slows the flow and increases odds of a transfer to the coast.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:20 am

@rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks. Videos have been cut, and one is in the process of uploading. I decided to do them in two parts; the first covers why I thought the previous system would come further north and lead to a warmer, sloppy mix with little snow for us, but give central New England more. I know there were some questions on that, and I wanted to address them. I also wanted to address a couple of other quick details in there, so I took the opportunity to do so. If you’re curious about the previous event and what I had to say, feel free to listen. If not, no worries. Just keep in mind that I discuss a lot of the same maps and concepts in detail in that first video that I reference again in the second. So if you find you’re confused about things I say in the second and you didn’t watch the first, you might have missed the explanation.

The second video is all about the upcoming storm, but uses a lot of the same ideas described in the first. In short, I think the models are overplaying the role of the blocking/confluence in southeastern Canada/northern New England, and will adjust to have less influence  and be more meridionally (north-south, or at least northwest-southeast oriented) in future runs. As a result, that will create more space to allow our system of interest to get further northeast, likely to near the latitude of the NY/PA border, or even slightly northeast of there, before being forced east or slightly south of east beneath the block. Additionally, I think the eastward-displaced ridge that continues to move eastward through the western U.S. will force a redevelopment further east overall, and with a further north track to start, a further north redevelopment as well. This will, therefore, allow warmer air to surge northward and turn most of us, if not all of us over to a mix/rain, and keep the best snow totals over central and northern New England. That said, I think a general 2-5/3-6/4-7 is probable for those north of 195 in NJ and west of the Garden State Parkway before the change.

As usual, I hope you all enjoy the videos, and if you have any questions, please feel free to ask!! Lastly, I want to apologize for the quality - it’s late, and I didn’t want to spend hours trying to make it perfect like I normally try to do. Also, I was definitely rushed because I had a lot to say between the two videos haha anyway, I hope you all enjoy them, and that they make sense! Thanks for watching!!

As promised, please find the below links to my discussions:

Part 1: Recap of my ideas on the January 26th event:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_k3Q9st7hZFAVxI9tJGUkKwsUCBb4IAn/view?usp=sharing

Part 2: Discussion of my ideas for the upcoming January 31st-February 1st Storm:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_AdFbGx06fUZzTGHAIadx5wXCDnnEuOl/view?usp=sharing

Just a couple of additional points that I thought of and noticed:

1. CP, I apologize for my inaccurate memory of who coined the "Warmicist" term. You deserve full credit for for that, and so I wanted to correct my earlier post haha
2. I noticed in Part 2 I mention "north of I-95 in New Jersey".......I really meant "north of 195 in New Jersey".
3. I want to make a slight adjustment to the ideas presented in Part 2. I think the eventual mid-level lows end up tracking near or just slightly south of the NY/PA border, and will not make it north of the border with the centers of circulation. That said, that still puts the axis of best snowfall along the approximate latitude of the Mass Pike for the first round, and then further north and east from there for the second round, as I discussed. All other ideas presented remain valid.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:26 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks. Videos have been cut, and one is in the process of uploading. I decided to do them in two parts; the first covers why I thought the previous system would come further north and lead to a warmer, sloppy mix with little snow for us, but give central New England more. I know there were some questions on that, and I wanted to address them. I also wanted to address a couple of other quick details in there, so I took the opportunity to do so. If you’re curious about the previous event and what I had to say, feel free to listen. If not, no worries. Just keep in mind that I discuss a lot of the same maps and concepts in detail in that first video that I reference again in the second. So if you find you’re confused about things I say in the second and you didn’t watch the first, you might have missed the explanation.

The second video is all about the upcoming storm, but uses a lot of the same ideas described in the first. In short, I think the models are overplaying the role of the blocking/confluence in southeastern Canada/northern New England, and will adjust to have less influence  and be more meridionally (north-south, or at least northwest-southeast oriented) in future runs. As a result, that will create more space to allow our system of interest to get further northeast, likely to near the latitude of the NY/PA border, or even slightly northeast of there, before being forced east or slightly south of east beneath the block. Additionally, I think the eastward-displaced ridge that continues to move eastward through the western U.S. will force a redevelopment further east overall, and with a further north track to start, a further north redevelopment as well. This will, therefore, allow warmer air to surge northward and turn most of us, if not all of us over to a mix/rain, and keep the best snow totals over central and northern New England. That said, I think a general 2-5/3-6/4-7 is probable for those north of 195 in NJ and west of the Garden State Parkway before the change.

As usual, I hope you all enjoy the videos, and if you have any questions, please feel free to ask!! Lastly, I want to apologize for the quality - it’s late, and I didn’t want to spend hours trying to make it perfect like I normally try to do. Also, I was definitely rushed because I had a lot to say between the two videos haha anyway, I hope you all enjoy them, and that they make sense! Thanks for watching!!

As promised, please find the below links to my discussions:

Part 1: Recap of my ideas on the January 26th event:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_k3Q9st7hZFAVxI9tJGUkKwsUCBb4IAn/view?usp=sharing

Part 2: Discussion of my ideas for the upcoming January 31st-February 1st Storm:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_AdFbGx06fUZzTGHAIadx5wXCDnnEuOl/view?usp=sharing

Just a couple of additional points that I thought of and noticed:

1. CP, I apologize for my inaccurate memory of who coined the "Warmicist" term. You deserve full credit for for that, and so I wanted to correct my earlier post haha
2. I noticed in Part 2 I mention "north of I-95 in New Jersey".......I really meant "north of 195 in New Jersey".
3. I want to make a slight adjustment to the ideas presented in Part 2. I think the eventual mid-level lows end up tracking near or just slightly south of the NY/PA border, and will not make it north of the border with the centers of circulation. That said, that still puts the axis of best snowfall along the approximate latitude of the Mass Pike for the first round, and then further north and east from there for the second round, as I discussed. All other ideas presented remain valid.

That's pretty much where the Icon has the heaviest axis of snow, but significant snow still makes it down to coastal sections. I agree with your assessment regarding the mid-level lows. HOWEVER, it should be noted that GFS/EURO are south with the H5 low which is why they show ridiculous snow amounts down to NYC. That possibility remains, but pattern suggests what's shown here on the Icon is more likely.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 6012d610

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:32 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks. Videos have been cut, and one is in the process of uploading. I decided to do them in two parts; the first covers why I thought the previous system would come further north and lead to a warmer, sloppy mix with little snow for us, but give central New England more. I know there were some questions on that, and I wanted to address them. I also wanted to address a couple of other quick details in there, so I took the opportunity to do so. If you’re curious about the previous event and what I had to say, feel free to listen. If not, no worries. Just keep in mind that I discuss a lot of the same maps and concepts in detail in that first video that I reference again in the second. So if you find you’re confused about things I say in the second and you didn’t watch the first, you might have missed the explanation.

The second video is all about the upcoming storm, but uses a lot of the same ideas described in the first. In short, I think the models are overplaying the role of the blocking/confluence in southeastern Canada/northern New England, and will adjust to have less influence  and be more meridionally (north-south, or at least northwest-southeast oriented) in future runs. As a result, that will create more space to allow our system of interest to get further northeast, likely to near the latitude of the NY/PA border, or even slightly northeast of there, before being forced east or slightly south of east beneath the block. Additionally, I think the eastward-displaced ridge that continues to move eastward through the western U.S. will force a redevelopment further east overall, and with a further north track to start, a further north redevelopment as well. This will, therefore, allow warmer air to surge northward and turn most of us, if not all of us over to a mix/rain, and keep the best snow totals over central and northern New England. That said, I think a general 2-5/3-6/4-7 is probable for those north of 195 in NJ and west of the Garden State Parkway before the change.

As usual, I hope you all enjoy the videos, and if you have any questions, please feel free to ask!! Lastly, I want to apologize for the quality - it’s late, and I didn’t want to spend hours trying to make it perfect like I normally try to do. Also, I was definitely rushed because I had a lot to say between the two videos haha anyway, I hope you all enjoy them, and that they make sense! Thanks for watching!!

As promised, please find the below links to my discussions:

Part 1: Recap of my ideas on the January 26th event:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_k3Q9st7hZFAVxI9tJGUkKwsUCBb4IAn/view?usp=sharing

Part 2: Discussion of my ideas for the upcoming January 31st-February 1st Storm:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_AdFbGx06fUZzTGHAIadx5wXCDnnEuOl/view?usp=sharing

Just a couple of additional points that I thought of and noticed:

1. CP, I apologize for my inaccurate memory of who coined the "Warmicist" term. You deserve full credit for for that, and so I wanted to correct my earlier post haha
2. I noticed in Part 2 I mention "north of I-95 in New Jersey".......I really meant "north of 195 in New Jersey".
3. I want to make a slight adjustment to the ideas presented in Part 2. I think the eventual mid-level lows end up tracking near or just slightly south of the NY/PA border, and will not make it north of the border with the centers of circulation. That said, that still puts the axis of best snowfall along the approximate latitude of the Mass Pike for the first round, and then further north and east from there for the second round, as I discussed. All other ideas presented remain valid.

RB thanks for putting this together. This is time consuming for you and completely free of charge to us! Being classically trained in meteorology I totally appreciate your insights. Very nice of you to do this for us.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:38 am

Oh yeah, Frank, I’m not saying that we get effectively get shut out, at least for those of us outside of Ocean/southern Monmouth Counties in NJ ( Brick ), but am just noting that I don’t think that the I-95 Corridor ends up in the bullseye like you mentioned is currently being shown by guidance. As I stated above, I think a general 2-7” range would be a solid first guesstimate for a majority of folks south of approximately I-84 (obviously the lower end of that range the further south and east and higher north and west), at least on a large-scale, broad-brushed scale like I’m working on. Unfortunately, I will again be unable to devote time to a snow map, which is why I’m speaking in generalities when it comes to the amounts haha

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:46 am

heehaw, it’s no problem at all!! I really enjoy doing it and adding content when I can, and greatly appreciate the opportunity to do so and just foster discussion, in addition to being able to remain fluent and up to date in the field, as I currently am not a meteorologist by current occupation haha I just really love forecasting, so I really appreciate the openness of you all to follow along and engage in the discussion, and the opportunity to help folks learn some things along the way Very Happy

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:55 am

RAY

Look where todays GFS is placing H7 low. MADONNE'

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 6012de10

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:01 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:RAY

Look where todays GFS is placing H7 low. MADONNE'

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 6012de10

The transfer is at a latitude on 850/700 which would crush the area. You'd have a maturing cyclone at the mid-levels which would CCB the hell out of this area.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:03 am

GFS threw a curveball in showing a low pressure system that develops pretty far south of our area, which would put the heavier axis of snow in NJ. N&W of NYC would see a lot less.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:07 am

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 4 Sn10_a10

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:08 am

IMO the only reason you see less on this GFS run is because the tilt of the trough isn't full negative. You have a low getting to 988 mb maturing below our latitude. Get the trough to tilt a hair more negative then you'd much to the north.

Details, details, but I like what this did.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:10 am

Yeah.....GFS just completely spit in my face there lol plenty of runs to go yet, so I ain’t scared lol!

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:15 am

GFS having that 500 Low closing off essentially over/just south of the Delaware Bay and mid-levels stacking up there is a thing of beauty. But rb, you are correct sir, many runs ahead. lol
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:16 am

12Z CMC is like 12z GFS
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:19 am

I still remain skeptical of the 24-hr-plus duration of this event even with the blocking features in place. These storms once they bomb seem to have a way of making their own path. Kind of like Refrigerator Perry going through a stout D-line once he has a head of steam. But the blocking certainly can slow it enough that it's a 12-24 hour event instead of a 6-10 hour event.
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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:26 am

With a potential start time as early as 6-8pm Sunday, it is not entirely impossible that we see watches go up tomorrow evening if warranted.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:27 am

rb, I think the 12z ICON is your model right now. Has the surface Low get up to Lake Erie before transferring right off NJ with the 500 level (barely) consolidating right over NJ. Keeps the heavy snow axis from about Berks County PA through the Poconos up into Albany and wester MA/CT.

I prefer the GFS thank you. lol
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Post by algae888 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:28 am

WoW at the cmc.  Starts snowing at hour 90  And it's still snowing at hour 120
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:29 am

Canadian global has some serious CCB. It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:48 am

I'm glad Steve D feels like he can sort out the details on this one.  I think it's rather impossible.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:52 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Canadian global has some serious CCB.  It's on the Canadian Site CMC now.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Low seems to get to right around Pittsburgh then transfer off the coast. Is that the biggest difference in what RB is saying versus what this is showing? That RB says the low gets farther north originally which would force the transfer closer to NYC and thus bring in warm air versus the Canadian which has the low stop father south resulting in a transfer closer to the benchmark? Or am I off base?
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