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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:48 am

Euro does show storm signal for D5+. Its ensembles also have the signal. It's more Miller A type of scenario ST phases with NS and produces a BIG storm. There is some support on other guidance of the possibility. We'll need at 2 days before having a clue I think.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:16 am

GFS (including 6z this morning) is just missing the hookup between the northern and southern energy. That’s why it’s not developing the storm until too late for us. I’d bet the GFS caves to the Euro on this soon.
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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:33 am

EURO SAYS LET"S GOOOOOOOOOO!!

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 EtOV-HsWQAA19hR?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:50 am

@billg315 wrote:GFS (including 6z this morning) is just missing the hookup between the northern and southern energy. That’s why it’s not developing the storm until too late for us. I’d bet the GFS caves to the Euro on this soon.

GFS 16 has it, but too early of a phase. We need another 2 days I think on this one. Threat windows is there.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:22 am

Where does one sign - that is a great signal 5 days out even if its Groundhogs Day!

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 EtOiZLlWQAA9-8Z?format=png&name=medium

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:24 am

@amugs wrote:Where does one sign - that is a great signal 5 days out even if its Groundhogs Day!

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 EtOiZLlWQAA9-8Z?format=png&name=medium

Putting the contract together as I type...

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:13 am

Regarding the Super Bowl storm...

The main difference is the EURO does not sheer the southern energy out, while the GFS does. There is a massive PV over the Hudson Bay which may be why the GFS shears out the southern energy. Let's see what happens today. My GUT tells me a coastal low does develop, but it might be too east. I think the EURO is over-amplifying things a bit

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:29 pm


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Post by WeatherBob Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:40 pm

Farmers almanac predicted for us, Feb 1 to 5, Sunny and mild.
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Post by lglickman1 Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:44 pm

How does Saturday night look? Will it be free of precipitation?

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Post by phil155 Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:52 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Farmers almanac predicted for us, Feb 1 to 5, Sunny and mild.

The prognosticator of prognosticators says 6 more weeks of winter

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:27 pm

Euro is consistent on a storm for Sunday. Other guidance is coming more around to the idea too. Interesting.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:36 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Euro is consistent on a storm for Sunday.  Other guidance is coming more around to the idea too.  Interesting.

Euro was a def bombski/bombskiboo/revAlevABomber. Starting tomorrow Im going to start to dive into the details.

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:47 pm

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 Pratep14
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Post by dsix85 Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:10 pm

coastie special?

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:50 pm

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 Screen19

Hello SB Sunday if this threading the needle system comes together.

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:51 pm

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 Screen20

Thank you sir may I have another on 2/10!

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Post by Mike1984 Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:27 pm

So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:35 pm

@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?

I'm a weather noob, so pay no attention to me. These are observations I've made and am looking to see what others think.

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:50 pm

@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?

Just got in from snow blowing.
Okay Mike yes it COULD be. We have to pay attention to the interaction between the PV and the Southern Wnergy coming out. GFS shreds the energy like it did last Monday. BIT we have a huge jet streak and anomalous cold air. The clipper Friday set the boundary for tjis storm to run up. So Friday clipper is what we want to pay attention to. If it does it quick job of dump and jump out of here we are in good shape for Sunday. If does a dump and slump then Sunday won't be able to have enough space to gather strength and could slide OTS or just be shredded into nothing. Don't get discouraged if you see it miss after showing a bomb, it's the model shuffle, windshield wiper affect at play. Happens with all storms, except cutters of course.
GFS is notorious for running the LP into a block only get corrected south.
Anyway here is a gif of the EURO run. EPS has a strong signal. Waiting on GEFS to see what they show.
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1612267200-1612699200-1612753200-40.gif.ad058aaf083fca6d7aa06d5a14cd6920

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Post by Zhukov1945 Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:56 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?

Just got in from snow blowing.
Okay Mike yes it COULD be. We have to pay attention to the interaction between the PV and the Southern Wnergy coming out. GFS shreds the energy like it did last Monday. BIT we have a huge jet streak and anomalous cold air. The clipper Friday set the boundary for tjis storm to run up. So Friday clipper is what we want to pay attention to. If it does it quick job of dump and jump out of here we are in good shape for Sunday. If does a dump and slump then Sunday won't be able to have enough space to gather strength and could slide OTS or just be shredded into nothing. Don't get discouraged if you see it miss after showing a bomb, it's the model shuffle, windshield wiper affect at play. Happens with all storms, except cutters of course.
GFS is notorious for running the LP into a block only get corrected south.
Anyway here is a gif of the EURO run. EPS has a strong signal. Waiting on GEFS to see what they show.
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1612267200-1612699200-1612753200-40.gif.ad058aaf083fca6d7aa06d5a14cd6920

That is one ugly sleet signal for someone depending on how it shakes out. Long way to go in any case.
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Post by Irish Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:01 pm

@Zhukov1945 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?

Just got in from snow blowing.
Okay Mike yes it COULD be. We have to pay attention to the interaction between the PV and the Southern Wnergy coming out. GFS shreds the energy like it did last Monday. BIT we have a huge jet streak and anomalous cold air. The clipper Friday set the boundary for tjis storm to run up. So Friday clipper is what we want to pay attention to. If it does it quick job of dump and jump out of here we are in good shape for Sunday. If does a dump and slump then Sunday won't be able to have enough space to gather strength and could slide OTS or just be shredded into nothing. Don't get discouraged if you see it miss after showing a bomb, it's the model shuffle, windshield wiper affect at play. Happens with all storms, except cutters of course.
GFS is notorious for running the LP into a block only get corrected south.
Anyway here is a gif of the EURO run. EPS has a strong signal. Waiting on GEFS to see what they show.
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1612267200-1612699200-1612753200-40.gif.ad058aaf083fca6d7aa06d5a14cd6920

That is one ugly sleet signal for someone depending on how it shakes out.  Long way to go in any case.

That'd be me, right over CNJ.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:04 pm

New thread for Sunday's possible storm has been created. Please take discussions pertaining to said storm over there. Thanks!!

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:49 pm

Looking at the teleconnections the time frame to look for is the 13-15th. PNA comes back to neutral froma deep negative state, NAO relaxes from a deep neg state, and a Neutral to neg EPO.

So let it be written, so let it be done

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:47 pm

There are so many potential storms out for the taking in the long range. 3 next week (including Super Bowl), and two the week after.

The one near Valentines Day looks very interesting. Has my attention

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