Long Range Discussions 21.0
Page 3 of 13
Page 3 of 13 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11, 12, 13
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Euro does show storm signal for D5+. Its ensembles also have the signal. It's more Miller A type of scenario ST phases with NS and produces a BIG storm. There is some support on other guidance of the possibility. We'll need at 2 days before having a clue I think.
heehaw453- Posts : 1585
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
GFS (including 6z this morning) is just missing the hookup between the northern and southern energy. That’s why it’s not developing the storm until too late for us. I’d bet the GFS caves to the Euro on this soon.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 3604
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
EURO SAYS LET"S GOOOOOOOOOO!!

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12054
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@billg315 wrote:GFS (including 6z this morning) is just missing the hookup between the northern and southern energy. That’s why it’s not developing the storm until too late for us. I’d bet the GFS caves to the Euro on this soon.
GFS 16 has it, but too early of a phase. We need another 2 days I think on this one. Threat windows is there.
heehaw453- Posts : 1585
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Where does one sign - that is a great signal 5 days out even if its Groundhogs Day!

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12054
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Putting the contract together as I type...
Irish- Posts : 421
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
amugs and bloc1357 like this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Regarding the Super Bowl storm...
The main difference is the EURO does not sheer the southern energy out, while the GFS does. There is a massive PV over the Hudson Bay which may be why the GFS shears out the southern energy. Let's see what happens today. My GUT tells me a coastal low does develop, but it might be too east. I think the EURO is over-amplifying things a bit
The main difference is the EURO does not sheer the southern energy out, while the GFS does. There is a massive PV over the Hudson Bay which may be why the GFS shears out the southern energy. Let's see what happens today. My GUT tells me a coastal low does develop, but it might be too east. I think the EURO is over-amplifying things a bit
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
The SSW back in January has been trickling down into the troposphere for some time, but this next dip down comes with the lobe of the vortex displaced closer to North America. Subsequently, rather than Siberia, the coldest air will now displace over North America. #Energy #NatGas pic.twitter.com/qp71s37Nc5
— Bret Walts (@BretWaltsWx) February 2, 2021
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12054
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Farmers almanac predicted for us, Feb 1 to 5, Sunny and mild.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
- Posts : 598
Reputation : 82
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 480 ft
RJB8525 and sabamfa like this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
How does Saturday night look? Will it be free of precipitation?
lglickman1- Posts : 233
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@WeatherBob wrote:Farmers almanac predicted for us, Feb 1 to 5, Sunny and mild.
The prognosticator of prognosticators says 6 more weeks of winter
phil155- Posts : 122
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Euro is consistent on a storm for Sunday. Other guidance is coming more around to the idea too. Interesting.
heehaw453- Posts : 1585
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@heehaw453 wrote:Euro is consistent on a storm for Sunday. Other guidance is coming more around to the idea too. Interesting.
Euro was a def bombski/bombskiboo/revAlevABomber. Starting tomorrow Im going to start to dive into the details.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6848
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
heehaw453 likes this post
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4245
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
coastie special?
dsix85- Posts : 270
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : New York
Irish- Posts : 421
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Irish- Posts : 421
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?
Mike1984- Posts : 3
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-12-15
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?
I'm a weather noob, so pay no attention to me. These are observations I've made and am looking to see what others think.
Irish- Posts : 421
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?
Just got in from snow blowing.
Okay Mike yes it COULD be. We have to pay attention to the interaction between the PV and the Southern Wnergy coming out. GFS shreds the energy like it did last Monday. BIT we have a huge jet streak and anomalous cold air. The clipper Friday set the boundary for tjis storm to run up. So Friday clipper is what we want to pay attention to. If it does it quick job of dump and jump out of here we are in good shape for Sunday. If does a dump and slump then Sunday won't be able to have enough space to gather strength and could slide OTS or just be shredded into nothing. Don't get discouraged if you see it miss after showing a bomb, it's the model shuffle, windshield wiper affect at play. Happens with all storms, except cutters of course.
GFS is notorious for running the LP into a block only get corrected south.
Anyway here is a gif of the EURO run. EPS has a strong signal. Waiting on GEFS to see what they show.

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 12054
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@amugs wrote:@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?
Just got in from snow blowing.
Okay Mike yes it COULD be. We have to pay attention to the interaction between the PV and the Southern Wnergy coming out. GFS shreds the energy like it did last Monday. BIT we have a huge jet streak and anomalous cold air. The clipper Friday set the boundary for tjis storm to run up. So Friday clipper is what we want to pay attention to. If it does it quick job of dump and jump out of here we are in good shape for Sunday. If does a dump and slump then Sunday won't be able to have enough space to gather strength and could slide OTS or just be shredded into nothing. Don't get discouraged if you see it miss after showing a bomb, it's the model shuffle, windshield wiper affect at play. Happens with all storms, except cutters of course.
GFS is notorious for running the LP into a block only get corrected south.
Anyway here is a gif of the EURO run. EPS has a strong signal. Waiting on GEFS to see what they show.
That is one ugly sleet signal for someone depending on how it shakes out. Long way to go in any case.
Zhukov1945- Posts : 80
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
@Zhukov1945 wrote:@amugs wrote:@Mike1984 wrote:So what we’re saying here in movie terms is, the previews are on the 5th the sequel comes out the 7th-8th and the trilogy gets released on the 10th?
Just got in from snow blowing.
Okay Mike yes it COULD be. We have to pay attention to the interaction between the PV and the Southern Wnergy coming out. GFS shreds the energy like it did last Monday. BIT we have a huge jet streak and anomalous cold air. The clipper Friday set the boundary for tjis storm to run up. So Friday clipper is what we want to pay attention to. If it does it quick job of dump and jump out of here we are in good shape for Sunday. If does a dump and slump then Sunday won't be able to have enough space to gather strength and could slide OTS or just be shredded into nothing. Don't get discouraged if you see it miss after showing a bomb, it's the model shuffle, windshield wiper affect at play. Happens with all storms, except cutters of course.
GFS is notorious for running the LP into a block only get corrected south.
Anyway here is a gif of the EURO run. EPS has a strong signal. Waiting on GEFS to see what they show.
That is one ugly sleet signal for someone depending on how it shakes out. Long way to go in any case.
That'd be me, right over CNJ.
Irish- Posts : 421
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
New thread for Sunday's possible storm has been created. Please take discussions pertaining to said storm over there. Thanks!!
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
Looking at the teleconnections the time frame to look for is the 13-15th. PNA comes back to neutral froma deep negative state, NAO relaxes from a deep neg state, and a Neutral to neg EPO.
So let it be written, so let it be done
So let it be written, so let it be done
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 6848
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
CPcantmeasuresnow and billg315 like this post
Re: Long Range Discussions 21.0
There are so many potential storms out for the taking in the long range. 3 next week (including Super Bowl), and two the week after.
The one near Valentines Day looks very interesting. Has my attention
The one near Valentines Day looks very interesting. Has my attention
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Page 3 of 13 • 1, 2, 3, 4 ... 11, 12, 13
Page 3 of 13
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|