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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:There are so many potential storms out for the taking in the long range. 3 next week (including Super Bowl), and two the week after.

The one near Valentines Day looks very interesting. Has my attention

Yes it does

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 601c821e8857c.png.938265887912f7f4ee9e5f9b37c7c533

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:00 pm

My goodness it gets bitter cold towards the end of next week through the V Day week. PV elongated and just sits over the Canadian USA border from Montana/ ND to  Lake Michigan
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 Eta1ik10


Last edited by amugs on Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:02 pm

@amugs wrote:My goodness it gets bitter cold towards the end of next week through the V Day week. PV elongated and just sits over the Canadian USA border from Montana/ ND to  Lake Michigan

Snowpack for weeks!
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:There are so many potential storms out for the taking in the long range. 3 next week (including Super Bowl), and two the week after.

The one near Valentines Day looks very interesting. Has my attention

Totally Frank. I mentioned this time frame yesterday too. Looking at the teleconnections there may be a telegraph for a Nesis type storm for this time frame. Obv its a long way off and plenty to look at before then.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by Irish Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:17 pm

I'm reading that it's looking like another long duration winter event that's taking shape for next weekend. Obviously a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with possible ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:18 pm

@Irish wrote:I'm reading that it's looking like another long duration winter event that's taking shape for next weekend. Obviously a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with possible ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

HOLY SHT the GEFS just showed a MASSIVE over running storm for teh 12-13th - the Tropospheric Polar Vortex is elongated and the southern stream just coms out of the SW and GOM - it has a 24 plus event that's one hell of a signal and it moderate snow teh mean is 10-14" JESUS H
From Ventrice

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 M500z_f156_bg_US.png.3064ac71a2adb16c87f91f44fd40d292

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Post by Snow88 Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:33 am

@amugs wrote:
@Irish wrote:I'm reading that it's looking like another long duration winter event that's taking shape for next weekend. Obviously a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with possible ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

HOLY SHT the GEFS just showed a MASSIVE over running storm for teh 12-13th - the Tropospheric Polar Vortex is elongated and the southern stream just coms out of the SW and GOM - it has a 24 plus event that's one hell of a signal and it moderate snow teh mean is 10-14" JESUS H
From Ventrice

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 M500z_f156_bg_US.png.3064ac71a2adb16c87f91f44fd40d292

Hey Mugs

The ensembles keep showing a colder solution for next weekend while the ops show a warmer solution. That is starting to change. The ops are trending colder to the ensembles. Interesting week ahead.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:42 am

Absolutely Tony thanks for stopping by my man!!

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Post by TheAresian Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:47 am

@Irish wrote:I'm reading that it's looking like another long duration winter event that's taking shape for next weekend. Obviously a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with possible ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

Does interior snow mean western NJ/eastern PA or more like frontier interior?

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Post by Irish Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:49 pm

@TheAresian wrote:
@Irish wrote:I'm reading that it's looking like another long duration winter event that's taking shape for next weekend. Obviously a ways out but major signal for multiple waves to ride along the Arctic boundary. Set up screams interior snow, while the coastal plain deals with possible ice. All depends where that boundary sets up though and that won't be modeled correctly until we are much closer. Pretty good look though.

Does interior snow mean western NJ/eastern PA or more like frontier interior?

I think like what you said and what we have seen classically this winter, NW NJ and Eastern PA. Hope it shifts, we'll see...

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Post by aiannone Sun Feb 07, 2021 9:51 am

The cold starting next weekend through the end of the month just looks relentless. WOW....
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 Gfs_t210
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Post by dkodgis Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:48 am

Am I reading that right? Something like -13 for upper Orange county? That's getting there.
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Post by Irish Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:34 am

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/98f864d5067cf4e6156c366b9f4ed13a1950458f051a18d4b8bea2f93b85977e

So not only are we seeing the relentless cold for the month of February, but looking at this 2 week forecast, there's snow or mix listed for every day but 3. Stormy and cold... SWEET!

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:34 am

@dkodgis wrote:Am I reading that right?  Something like -13 for upper Orange county?  That's getting there.  

With a deep snowpack and radiational cooling under clear skies yuor more like -20!!! Yikes have not seen this type of cold since the 1994 outbreak where Warwick hit -30 if I recall - CP paging CP on this one and Doc?

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:37 am

MASSIVE PATTERN upcoming - could be dare I say utopian for us snow weenies? Mother Nature balancing things out as she usually does!

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:39 am

Cold days ahead my friends. Old Man Winter has awoken from his slumber.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:40 am

@amugs wrote:MASSIVE PATTERN upcoming - could be dare I say utopian for us snow weenies? Mother Nature balancing things out as she usually does!

I'm pretty fired up about the potential. The boundary will be close by so we are definitely in the game!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:09 pm

@billg315 wrote:Cold days ahead my friends. Old Man Winter has awoken from his slumber.

And we have you to thank.

I hope that's not lost on everyone here. I'll take superstition over science any day, with these recent results.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:14 pm

@amugs wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:Am I reading that right?  Something like -13 for upper Orange county?  That's getting there.  

With a deep snowpack and radiational cooling under clear skies yuor more like -20!!! Yikes have not seen this type of cold since the 1994 outbreak where Warwick hit -30 if I recall - CP paging CP on this one and Doc?

I hit -23° in Highland Mills during the 1994 cold outbreak, I forget what town but somewhere in NWNJ Sparta or Sussex?, hit -32°, Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, MIddletown all were -20° or lower. These were actual temperatures no wind chill involved.

I remember going outside just to see what -23° felt like. You immediately felt everything in the inside of your nose freeze up.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:17 pm

1.2 inch total and light snow here, looks like that may be it, and I'm okay with it, would have liked 3 but I cashed in early this week.

Enjoy SENJSNOWMAN  and everyone else that missed out the max earlier this week, you've earned this one.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:03 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Cold days ahead my friends. Old Man Winter has awoken from his slumber.

And we have you to thank.

I hope that's not lost on everyone here. I'll take superstition over science any day, with these recent results.

I was rolling reading through all that. Bravo to all of you who took part. I appreciate the shout out over there Bill

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:23 pm

@aiannone wrote:The cold starting next weekend through the end of the month just looks relentless. WOW....
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 Gfs_t210
my sil in iowa said it was -6 today and the wind chill -40... What a Face
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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:45 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Cold days ahead my friends. Old Man Winter has awoken from his slumber.

And we have you to thank.

I hope that's not lost on everyone here. I'll take superstition over science any day, with these recent results.

I was rolling reading through all that. Bravo to all of you who took part. I appreciate the shout out over there Bill

Glad to do my part. And glad it seems to have worked out because I really wasn’t sure how to land that plane if this past week ended up 55* and rainy. Lol.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:15 pm

This map is just magical for us snow weenies. Just beautiful.
Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 4 Etp6v_10

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by mwilli Sun Feb 07, 2021 9:56 pm

I'm gonna have to get another bag of ice melt if there are more storms coming

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