Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

@nutleyblizzard wrote:6Z GFS is closer to the coast. Brings light snow into the area.

So does its twin. Icon also. Nam just misses. Here comes the north trend.

6z gefs are way north

Oh boy, we are back in the game

If it snows I don't know where I'm going to put it. But I'll figure out. C'mon Northward trend !

Euro is close maybe snj and coastal nj can get some

So you have 06z Gfs, 06z Icon, on board. 06z NAM cam back compared to 00z which was a complete miss. Then you have the. CMC and Euro which were complete misses at 90z but 06z euro shifted north a bit with the S energy. The euro usually will slowly come back instead of these wild mood swings the GFS and Nam like to do. There is still a glimmer of hope

Wow...we’re back in the game right before half time. Stayed tuned for the half time show today at 1pm

The 06Z GEFS made a bigger move than the Op.  The ICON has been very consistent on bringing this storm into our area.   The GFS v16 is also very close and scrapes the area.

I'll wait to see 12Z GFS before I get anymore interested in it.

Also FYI Here is the energy currently. 06z euro initialization compared to Friday am.  So I’d say the 12z Friday is the earliest models have fully sampled data.

NAVGEM

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow...we’re back in the game right before half time. Stayed tuned for the half time show today at 1pm

Definitely enough to keep me interested

Here is 00z Euro ensemble low locations for this threat.  You have 3 clusters of low pressure.  Notice number 1 first.  All the lows in this group are above 1000 mb and is furthest S&E.  This tells us there is no phasing and a less amped system....swing and a miss.  But look at cluster 2.  Theses are at or mostly sub 1000mb which indicates a stronger soln and likely at least some phasing which brings the system further N&W.  Cluster 3 is also all sub 1000mb but its location tells me it phases but too late.  

The only take away point from this is that about 2/3rds of the solns will not affect our area, BUT there is still 1/3 that could(to what degree is still open).  As I posted above full sampling is still at least 24-36hrs away so keep an open mind today, for better or worse.

WE TRACK!!!!  

Sref is a hit

Add the loss in the medium range only to start a NW trend/bump
GEFS



EPS also

There is a significant spread in the means on GEFS, but clearly guidance has shifted NW.  Even 06Z EPS shifted NW too.  You will see these shifts now if they are going to happen being we're about D3+ out.

Very important and positive news from a very intelligent Pro Met from New England. Hope for teh best now peeps!!

If you want the NW trend for Sunday's storm to keep going, I have good news for you!

Ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that the no-storm solution depends partially on lower heights over the Pac NW this morning.

Comparing 0z GFS to RAOBs, heights are ~20m above forecast there! pic.twitter.com/fEQ4ZuhVHh

— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) February 4, 2021

NAM is amplifying the Shortwave a bit more - the post from Jack Sillan has credence and not the CCR one either - CP, DOC and SNOWMAN love this band but not as much as Petty for CP!LOL!

Take the NAM for what it's worth at this range, but this is probably what you want to see for a storm.  ST out ahead of the NS and the NS will probably drop into the ST. That will ride it more NE and instead of push it out to sea.

12Z NAM looks what the Icon has been showing consistently for a few days.

12Z NAM BABY!

@aiannone wrote:12Z NAM BABY!

Well, that would be a solid hit!