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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:32 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:6Z GFS is closer to the coast. Brings light snow into the area.
So does its twin. Icon also. Nam just misses. Here comes the north trend.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:10 am

6z gefs are way north
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:39 am

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 55a67410
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Post by dsix85 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:42 am

Oh boy, we are back in the game

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:55 am

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 P1_gz_10
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Post by dkodgis Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:57 am

Ladies and gentlemen, and children of all ages (Doc, CP, me)

Looking better that snow's back on the menu, boys.
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:18 am

If it snows I don't know where I'm going to put it. But I'll figure out. C'mon Northward trend !
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:20 am

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 601be410

Euro is close maybe snj and coastal nj can get some
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:22 am

So you have 06z Gfs, 06z Icon, on board. 06z NAM cam back compared to 00z which was a complete miss. Then you have the. CMC and Euro which were complete misses at 90z but 06z euro shifted north a bit with the S energy. The euro usually will slowly come back instead of these wild mood swings the GFS and Nam like to do. There is still a glimmer of hope

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:23 am

Wow...we’re back in the game right before half time. Stayed tuned for the half time show today at 1pm

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:24 am

The 06Z GEFS made a bigger move than the Op.  The ICON has been very consistent on bringing this storm into our area.   The GFS v16 is also very close and scrapes the area.

I'll wait to see 12Z GFS before I get anymore interested in it.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:26 am

Also FYI Here is the energy currently. 06z euro initialization compared to Friday am.  So I’d say the 12z Friday is the earliest models have fully sampled data.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 6cb86710
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Cac0e310

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:28 am

NAVGEM

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 4a398e10

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:56 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow...we’re back in the game right before half time. Stayed tuned for the half time show today at 1pm

Definitely enough to keep me interested
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:57 am

Here is 00z Euro ensemble low locations for this threat.  You have 3 clusters of low pressure.  Notice number 1 first.  All the lows in this group are above 1000 mb and is furthest S&E.  This tells us there is no phasing and a less amped system....swing and a miss.  But look at cluster 2.  Theses are at or mostly sub 1000mb which indicates a stronger soln and likely at least some phasing which brings the system further N&W.  Cluster 3 is also all sub 1000mb but its location tells me it phases but too late.  

The only take away point from this is that about 2/3rds of the solns will not affect our area, BUT there is still 1/3 that could(to what degree is still open).  As I posted above full sampling is still at least 24-36hrs away so keep an open mind today, for better or worse.

WE TRACK!!!! What a Face  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Eps10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Snow88 Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:38 am

Sref is a hit
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:44 am

Add the loss in the medium range only to start a NW trend/bump
GEFS

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 EtYYwaAXYAAPrCY?format=jpg&name=medium

EPS also
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_84.png.8c1c0b771664a2d2eaf042e2574eed9c

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Giphy-downsized-large

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:44 am

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 C91ecf10
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 5d9def10
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:46 am

There is a significant spread in the means on GEFS, but clearly guidance has shifted NW.  Even 06Z EPS shifted NW too.  You will see these shifts now if they are going to happen being we're about D3+ out.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Gfs-em10

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:52 am

Very important and positive news from a very intelligent Pro Met from New England. Hope for teh best now peeps!!

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:23 am

NAM is amplifying the Shortwave a bit more - the post from Jack Sillan has credence and not the CCR one either - CP, DOC and SNOWMAN love this band but not as much as Petty for CP!LOL!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Namconus_z500_vort_us_fh45_trend.gif.be81c20885a2d11b97e7b1539a91b685

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:30 am

Take the NAM for what it's worth at this range, but this is probably what you want to see for a storm.  ST out ahead of the NS and the NS will probably drop into the ST. That will ride it more NE and instead of push it out to sea.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Nam12

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:36 am

12Z NAM looks what the Icon has been showing consistently for a few days.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:46 am

12Z NAM BABY!
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Namcon13
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Namcon14
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:55 am

@aiannone wrote:12Z NAM BABY!
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Namcon13
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 3 Namcon14

Well, that would be a solid hit!

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