HomePossible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:32 am
So does its twin. Icon also. Nam just misses. Here comes the north trend.@nutleyblizzard wrote:6Z GFS is closer to the coast. Brings light snow into the area.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:10 am
6z gefs are way north
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by dsix85 Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:42 am
Oh boy, we are back in the game
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by dkodgis Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:57 am
Ladies and gentlemen, and children of all ages (Doc, CP, me)
Looking better that snow's back on the menu, boys.
Looking better that snow's back on the menu, boys.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by SNOW MAN Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:18 am
If it snows I don't know where I'm going to put it. But I'll figure out. C'mon Northward trend !
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:20 am
Euro is close maybe snj and coastal nj can get some
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:22 am
So you have 06z Gfs, 06z Icon, on board. 06z NAM cam back compared to 00z which was a complete miss. Then you have the. CMC and Euro which were complete misses at 90z but 06z euro shifted north a bit with the S energy. The euro usually will slowly come back instead of these wild mood swings the GFS and Nam like to do. There is still a glimmer of hope
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:23 am
Wow...we’re back in the game right before half time. Stayed tuned for the half time show today at 1pm
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:24 am
The 06Z GEFS made a bigger move than the Op. The ICON has been very consistent on bringing this storm into our area. The GFS v16 is also very close and scrapes the area.
I'll wait to see 12Z GFS before I get anymore interested in it.
I'll wait to see 12Z GFS before I get anymore interested in it.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:26 am
Also FYI Here is the energy currently. 06z euro initialization compared to Friday am. So I’d say the 12z Friday is the earliest models have fully sampled data.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:28 am
NAVGEM
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:56 am
@Frank_Wx wrote:Wow...we’re back in the game right before half time. Stayed tuned for the half time show today at 1pm
Definitely enough to keep me interested
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:57 am
Here is 00z Euro ensemble low locations for this threat. You have 3 clusters of low pressure. Notice number 1 first. All the lows in this group are above 1000 mb and is furthest S&E. This tells us there is no phasing and a less amped system....swing and a miss. But look at cluster 2. Theses are at or mostly sub 1000mb which indicates a stronger soln and likely at least some phasing which brings the system further N&W. Cluster 3 is also all sub 1000mb but its location tells me it phases but too late.
The only take away point from this is that about 2/3rds of the solns will not affect our area, BUT there is still 1/3 that could(to what degree is still open). As I posted above full sampling is still at least 24-36hrs away so keep an open mind today, for better or worse.
WE TRACK!!!!
The only take away point from this is that about 2/3rds of the solns will not affect our area, BUT there is still 1/3 that could(to what degree is still open). As I posted above full sampling is still at least 24-36hrs away so keep an open mind today, for better or worse.
WE TRACK!!!!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:44 am
Add the loss in the medium range only to start a NW trend/bump
GEFS
EPS also
GEFS
EPS also
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:46 am
There is a significant spread in the means on GEFS, but clearly guidance has shifted NW. Even 06Z EPS shifted NW too. You will see these shifts now if they are going to happen being we're about D3+ out.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:52 am
Very important and positive news from a very intelligent Pro Met from New England. Hope for teh best now peeps!!
If you want the NW trend for Sunday's storm to keep going, I have good news for you!
— Jack Sillin (@JackSillin) February 4, 2021
Ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that the no-storm solution depends partially on lower heights over the Pac NW this morning.
Comparing 0z GFS to RAOBs, heights are ~20m above forecast there! pic.twitter.com/fEQ4ZuhVHh
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:23 am
NAM is amplifying the Shortwave a bit more - the post from Jack Sillan has credence and not the CCR one either - CP, DOC and SNOWMAN love this band but not as much as Petty for CP!LOL!
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:30 am
Take the NAM for what it's worth at this range, but this is probably what you want to see for a storm. ST out ahead of the NS and the NS will probably drop into the ST. That will ride it more NE and instead of push it out to sea.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:36 am
12Z NAM looks what the Icon has been showing consistently for a few days.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:55 am
Well, that would be a solid hit!
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