Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

So you have 06z Gfs, 06z Icon, on board. 06z NAM cam back compared to 00z which was a complete miss. Then you have the. CMC and Euro which were complete misses at 90z but 06z euro shifted north a bit with the S energy. The euro usually will slowly come back instead of these wild mood swings the GFS and Nam like to do. There is still a glimmer of hope

Also FYI Here is the energy currently. 06z euro initialization compared to Friday am.  So I’d say the 12z Friday is the earliest models have fully sampled data.

Here is 00z Euro ensemble low locations for this threat.  You have 3 clusters of low pressure.  Notice number 1 first.  All the lows in this group are above 1000 mb and is furthest S&E.  This tells us there is no phasing and a less amped system....swing and a miss.  But look at cluster 2.  Theses are at or mostly sub 1000mb which indicates a stronger soln and likely at least some phasing which brings the system further N&W.  Cluster 3 is also all sub 1000mb but its location tells me it phases but too late.  

The only take away point from this is that about 2/3rds of the solns will not affect our area, BUT there is still 1/3 that could(to what degree is still open).  As I posted above full sampling is still at least 24-36hrs away so keep an open mind today, for better or worse.

WE TRACK!!!!