Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.
This all seems oddly familiar.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
@dsix85 wrote:@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.
Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?
I believe there is going to be low level warmth on this. The coastal plain may have issues with surface to about 2000 feet ASL. Rates may offset that though and it's a paste bomb.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
@heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth. mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.
Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good. This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
@sroc4 wrote:@heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth. mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.
Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good. This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.
Scott exactly what I was posting with the maps - the BL is a tick warm but the column above is cold - good rates as depicted on NAM's of 2-3" per hours woudl help accumulate and cool the surface.
Good to see teh GFS being late to teh party .....again!!

Good trend NW on the GFS!
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.
Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
@sroc4 wrote:@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.
Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol
True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!

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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Mike Woods said 1-3 then rain just now.
Yesterday lady at Chiropractor said I heard rain for Sunday on my Weather App and another said we are not getting snow. I said you'll see.
Yesterday lady at Chiropractor said I heard rain for Sunday on my Weather App and another said we are not getting snow. I said you'll see.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
NAM frontogenesis - sick rates 2+" per hour under this deep purple banding and just NW of it


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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
EURO coming in more amped NW - height rising on teh EC and system strong = a crusher incoming - lets see where it goes - come to POPPA !!!
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
PURE MILLER A WOW


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Watches will be likely hoisted at the 4pm update
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Precipitation shield is expanding good to see this is a SECS to low end Mecs = BOOM! Another NW tick or two at play folks and then a tick SE - ECSE = East Coast Storm Evolution
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Solid 3-6" storm N&W 4-8 CNJ/SNJ and LI - underdoing the precip with a 995 LP
25-50 NW tick on the table so keep that in mind here peeps
25-50 NW tick on the table so keep that in mind here peeps
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Wow


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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Yes I dunno what I was thinking, no idea why I thought it was a Monday storm lol@sroc4 wrote:@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.
Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Euro track looked pretty good. If it just developed a hair faster then it'd be a major event. There's not a lot of wiggle room with the development since it's moving at a good clip.
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Chill, it was a mistake on my part, I don't think there's go be any power issues with this just like last one. Did anyone lose power in the last storm? And the cleanup is what it is but if you don't park on the street with 2 cars in a neighborhood that already has more cars than spots its extremely aggravating and I usually have to shovel everyday to get into a spot if I go out. Luckily it's done raining and theres still a good 8-12 inches on the ground here so add another 6 to be conservative with the way the models look and we will have a nice top off.@Irish wrote:@sroc4 wrote:@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.
Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol
True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
quite a bit less on UK and EURO than NAM, isn't it time to take the NAM more seriously? I am hoping for NAM amounts, 3-6 inches ain't go cut it, 6 i'll take 3 meh lol (here I mean, looks like LI and jersey shore may jackpot on this one and good for them as this area stole the show on the last one.
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