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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:55 am

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

This all seems oddly familiar.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:57 am

@dsix85 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?

I believe there is going to be low level warmth on this. The coastal plain may have issues with surface to about 2000 feet ASL. Rates may offset that though and it's a paste bomb.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:58 am

@heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth.  mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good. This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:08 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth.  mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good.  This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.  

Scott exactly what I was posting with the maps - the BL is a tick warm but the column above is cold - good rates as depicted on NAM's of 2-3" per hours woudl help accumulate and cool the surface.

Good to see teh GFS being late to teh party .....again!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png.6425b4b9ef698c6fcba3d1c0f1889fbf

Good trend NW on the GFS!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:32 am

Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:40 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:50 am

12z RGEM for the win!
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Rgem_m11
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Rgem_a11
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Post by Irish Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:51 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!  Razz

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:44 pm

Mike Woods said 1-3 then rain just now.
Yesterday lady at Chiropractor said I heard rain for Sunday on my Weather App and another said we are not getting snow. I said you'll see.

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 12:54 pm

NAM frontogenesis - sick rates 2+" per hour under this deep purple banding and just NW of it

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 1008707322_NAM700SUnday.gif.03d8630c7c3584a2971c7ec9465cdb8a

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:02 pm

EURO coming in more amped NW - height rising on teh EC and system strong = a crusher incoming - lets see where it goes - come to POPPA !!!

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:03 pm

PURE MILLER A WOW

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 22C2B770-A29A-406F-A120-2887E6D25E72.png.280a4058997ff4e6b089ea377a2ba15f

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:04 pm

HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 F5AF0A8B-7840-4023-BD43-26CF8ECFA232.png.8c5cb5c954008eb40fc2dda04d85131f

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:04 pm

BOOOM
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Pratep19
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:05 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 695DFBED-D8A8-44F6-ACFE-10285374C1C6.png.e946e5cc90b887254d6e909e6f00c9f8

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:06 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 AAE06199-0D0E-4EA3-A326-051D6AF79A6E.png.e26f381df492dfaeb6de755697de118f

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:07 pm

Watches will be likely hoisted at the 4pm update
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:08 pm

Precipitation shield is expanding good to see this is a SECS to low end Mecs = BOOM! Another NW tick or two at play folks and then a tick SE - ECSE = East Coast Storm Evolution

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:15 pm

Solid 3-6" storm N&W 4-8 CNJ/SNJ and LI - underdoing the precip with a 995 LP
25-50 NW tick on the table so keep that in mind here peeps

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:17 pm

Wow

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Image-thumb-png-0822c359533c655cbabae9196c668964

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:18 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol
Yes I dunno what I was thinking, no idea why I thought it was a Monday storm lol
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:19 pm

12z UKMET
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Sn10_a16
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:20 pm

Euro track looked pretty good.  If it just developed a hair faster then it'd be a major event.  There's not a lot of wiggle room with the development since it's moving at a good clip.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:21 pm

@Irish wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!  Razz
Chill, it was a mistake on my part, I don't think there's go be any power issues with this just like last one. Did anyone lose power in the last storm? And the cleanup is what it is but if you don't park on the street with 2 cars in a neighborhood that already has more cars than spots its extremely aggravating and I usually have to shovel everyday to get into a spot if I go out. Luckily it's done raining and theres still a good 8-12 inches on the ground here so add another 6 to be conservative with the way the models look and we will have a nice top off.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:26 pm

@aiannone wrote:12z UKMET
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Sn10_a16
quite a bit less on UK and EURO than NAM, isn't it time to take the NAM more seriously?  I am hoping for NAM amounts, 3-6 inches ain't go cut it, 6 i'll take 3 meh lol (here I mean, looks like LI and jersey shore may jackpot on this one and good for them as this area stole the show on the last one.
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