Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:53 am

12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

by **dsix85** Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:55 am

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?

by **essexcountypete** Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:55 am

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

This all seems oddly familiar.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:57 am

dsix85 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?

I believe there is going to be low level warmth on this. The coastal plain may have issues with surface to about 2000 feet ASL. Rates may offset that though and it's a paste bomb.

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:58 am

heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth. mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good. This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:08 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth. mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good. This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.

Scott exactly what I was posting with the maps - the BL is a tick warm but the column above is cold - good rates as depicted on NAM's of 2-3" per hours woudl help accumulate and cool the surface.

Good to see teh GFS being late to teh party .....again!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png.6425b4b9ef698c6fcba3d1c0f1889fbf

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png.6425b4b9ef698c6fcba3d1c0f1889fbf

Good trend NW on the GFS!

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:32 am

Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:40 am

jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:50 am

12z RGEM for the win!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Rgem_m11

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Rgem_a11

by **Irish** Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:51 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties! Razz

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:44 am

Mike Woods said 1-3 then rain just now.
Yesterday lady at Chiropractor said I heard rain for Sunday on my Weather App and another said we are not getting snow. I said you'll see.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:54 am

NAM frontogenesis - sick rates 2+" per hour under this deep purple banding and just NW of it

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 1008707322_NAM700SUnday.gif.03d8630c7c3584a2971c7ec9465cdb8a

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 1008707322_NAM700SUnday.gif.03d8630c7c3584a2971c7ec9465cdb8a

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:02 am

EURO coming in more amped NW - height rising on teh EC and system strong = a crusher incoming - lets see where it goes - come to POPPA !!!

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:03 am

PURE MILLER A WOW

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 22C2B770-A29A-406F-A120-2887E6D25E72.png.280a4058997ff4e6b089ea377a2ba15f

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:04 am

HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 F5AF0A8B-7840-4023-BD43-26CF8ECFA232.png.8c5cb5c954008eb40fc2dda04d85131f

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 F5AF0A8B-7840-4023-BD43-26CF8ECFA232.png.8c5cb5c954008eb40fc2dda04d85131f

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:04 am

BOOOM

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Pratep19

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:05 am

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:06 am

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:07 am

Watches will be likely hoisted at the 4pm update

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:08 am

Precipitation shield is expanding good to see this is a SECS to low end Mecs = BOOM! Another NW tick or two at play folks and then a tick SE - ECSE = East Coast Storm Evolution

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:15 am

Solid 3-6" storm N&W 4-8 CNJ/SNJ and LI - underdoing the precip with a 995 LP
25-50 NW tick on the table so keep that in mind here peeps

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:17 am

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:18 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

Yes I dunno what I was thinking, no idea why I thought it was a Monday storm lol

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:19 am

12z UKMET

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 9 Sn10_a16

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:20 am

Euro track looked pretty good. If it just developed a hair faster then it'd be a major event. There's not a lot of wiggle room with the development since it's moving at a good clip.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:21 am

Irish wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!

Chill, it was a mistake on my part, I don't think there's go be any power issues with this just like last one. Did anyone lose power in the last storm? And the cleanup is what it is but if you don't park on the street with 2 cars in a neighborhood that already has more cars than spots its extremely aggravating and I usually have to shovel everyday to get into a spot if I go out. Luckily it's done raining and theres still a good 8-12 inches on the ground here so add another 6 to be conservative with the way the models look and we will have a nice top off.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:26 am

aiannone wrote:12z UKMET

quite a bit less on UK and EURO than NAM, isn't it time to take the NAM more seriously? I am hoping for NAM amounts, 3-6 inches ain't go cut it, 6 i'll take 3 meh lol (here I mean, looks like LI and jersey shore may jackpot on this one and good for them as this area stole the show on the last one.

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