Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

This all seems oddly familiar.

dsix85 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?

I believe there is going to be low level warmth on this. The coastal plain may have issues with surface to about 2000 feet ASL. Rates may offset that though and it's a paste bomb.

heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth.  mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good. This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.

sroc4 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth.  mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

Looking at soundings on GFS and NAM anywhere south of say Middlesex/Monmouth counties regions along the coast may be a concern, but N or there looks preety =good.  This system moves so fast the cold air mass in place doesnt have much time to scour out the cold before the NW winds switch back over.  

Scott exactly what I was posting with the maps - the BL is a tick warm but the column above is cold - good rates as depicted on NAM's of 2-3" per hours woudl help accumulate and cool the surface.

Good to see teh GFS being late to teh party .....again!!



Good trend NW on the GFS!

Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to 6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday. Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

12z RGEM for the win!

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!  

Mike Woods said 1-3 then rain just now.
Yesterday lady at Chiropractor said I heard rain for Sunday on my Weather App and another said we are not getting snow. I said you'll see.

NAM frontogenesis - sick rates 2+" per hour under this deep purple banding and just NW of it

EURO coming in more amped NW - height rising on teh EC and system strong = a crusher incoming - lets see where it goes - come to POPPA !!!

PURE MILLER A WOW

HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE

BOOOM

Watches will be likely hoisted at the 4pm update

Precipitation shield is expanding good to see this is a SECS to low end Mecs = BOOM! Another NW tick or two at play folks and then a tick SE - ECSE = East Coast Storm Evolution

Solid 3-6" storm N&W 4-8 CNJ/SNJ and LI - underdoing the precip with a 995 LP
25-50 NW tick on the table so keep that in mind here peeps

Wow

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

Yes I dunno what I was thinking, no idea why I thought it was a Monday storm lol

12z UKMET

Euro track looked pretty good.  If it just developed a hair faster then it'd be a major event.  There's not a lot of wiggle room with the development since it's moving at a good clip.

Irish wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!  

Chill, it was a mistake on my part, I don't think there's go be any power issues with this just like last one. Did anyone lose power in the last storm? And the cleanup is what it is but if you don't park on the street with 2 cars in a neighborhood that already has more cars than spots its extremely aggravating and I usually have to shovel everyday to get into a spot if I go out. Luckily it's done raining and theres still a good 8-12 inches on the ground here so add another 6 to be conservative with the way the models look and we will have a nice top off.

aiannone wrote:12z UKMET

quite a bit less on UK and EURO than NAM, isn't it time to take the NAM more seriously?  I am hoping for NAM amounts, 3-6 inches ain't go cut it, 6 i'll take 3 meh lol (here I mean, looks like LI and jersey shore may jackpot on this one and good for them as this area stole the show on the last one.