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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:32 pm

3km nam 12z shows some seriously heavy snow within the banding that comes through, it snows from west to east from about hr 47 to hr 56, that is one quick storm.
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:47 pm

@amugs wrote:HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 F5AF0A8B-7840-4023-BD43-26CF8ECFA232.png.8c5cb5c954008eb40fc2dda04d85131f

Mugs, your posts make me bust out laughing. I'm getting so hyped up just reading them. Laughing
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Post by Snownyc Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:57 pm

I like the storms that put a lot down fast it seems better

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:09 pm

Here is Uptons first crack at this. They are cute over there. They get an E for effort

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 StormTotalSnowWeb

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:27 pm

I am hearing members 38,39 are the most accurate ensemble members in the EPS suite of all 51 members.......LOL!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 EtfC3shXIAEBShS?format=jpg&name=large

_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:36 pm

@amugs wrote:I am hearing members 38,39 are the most accurate ensemble members in the EPS suite of all 51 members.......LOL!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 EtfC3shXIAEBShS?format=jpg&name=large

39 my ass!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:01 pm

Seems like, waiting on the next NAM run to come into range, pretty good consensus with the models right now that the heaviest snows stay right along the coast, south and east of the NJ Turnpike. Given that the models a couple days ago had this thing sliding way to our southeast you could look at it two ways: 1.) Since the models had some suppression here it makes sense the storm stays a bit S&E and is a coastal special; 2.) That they've trended so far N&W in 24 hours that why wouldn't they trend another 75 miles or so in that direction between now and Sunday?
We do seem kind of due for a coastal special . . . not that "due" is a scientific term. lol.
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:13 pm

Hmmm, 18z NAM looks a tick north? We'll see in a couple more minutes.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:14 pm

YOU GET SNOW, YOU GET SNOW....
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 Ref1km12
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:15 pm

Yessir. 18z NAM definitely has ticked north.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:16 pm

Watches just went up out of Mt. Holly
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:18 pm

The 18Z NAM mid level low continues to get closer the coast.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 85013

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:20 pm

Heaviest snow this run is just either side of I-95. I don't think this shift north made a huge difference in snow totals for the N&W folks, maybe a couple extra inches on LI and northwest of NYC, but it could spell trouble for the SNJ coast with more mixing possible and lower totals. Last run they were in the thick of the heavy snow, now much more modest amounts.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:22 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 Sn10_a17
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:22 pm

Honestly I don't see much of a difference with this track than what has been seen most of the winter.  Definitely have better mid level antecedent cold air.

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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:27 pm

Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware
Description
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:31 pm

The 3K NAM has this a major event for a lot of the area.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 3knam10

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Post by mmanisca Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:31 pm

Winter STorm Watch just came on to my Apple watch for suffolk county
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:31 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

CTZ007>012-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060930-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.210207T0900Z-210207T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
329 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:34 pm

Winters storm watch went up for my area

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:41 pm

Wow 3km nam! Low end Godzilla jeeze. 13.9 imby verbatim. Only model showing that high though I think no? Wsw up for 5 to 7.ni think that's a fair call ATM.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Irish Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:41 pm

Winter Storm watch in my area as well. Predicting 1 inch overnight on Saturday and then 5-8 on Sunday.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:14 pm

Yesssss no winter storm watch yet here.
I’m hoping that works out as well in this storm as it did in the last storm (over two feet) for Orange County.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:15 pm

Holy SB Batman! What a turn of events over the last 2 days!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Grselig Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:20 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Holy SB Batman! What a turn of events over the last 2 days!

Ha. Im a big fan of Storm Mode!
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