Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

Irish wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Loving where I sit on the nam would like to see a tiny bit more north but 8+ Dec not bad and it is Jersey coast turn. Is NYC metro and just north at risk of rain or mixing? That's some short duration to  6 to 12 dayumm. Even commute b a nightmare. At least a lot people still work at home lessen traffic.

Its for Sunday.  Commuting prob wont be affected..lol

True, but we can't possibly discuss a storm without killing the mood with how it's gonna impact the commute, lose power, or struggle through all the cleanup difficulties!  

Chill, it was a mistake on my part, I don't think there's go be any power issues with this just like last one. Did anyone lose power in the last storm? And the cleanup is what it is but if you don't park on the street with 2 cars in a neighborhood that already has more cars than spots its extremely aggravating and I usually have to shovel everyday to get into a spot if I go out. Luckily it's done raining and theres still a good 8-12 inches on the ground here so add another 6 to be conservative with the way the models look and we will have a nice top off.

aiannone wrote:12z UKMET

quite a bit less on UK and EURO than NAM, isn't it time to take the NAM more seriously?  I am hoping for NAM amounts, 3-6 inches ain't go cut it, 6 i'll take 3 meh lol (here I mean, looks like LI and jersey shore may jackpot on this one and good for them as this area stole the show on the last one.

3km nam 12z shows some seriously heavy snow within the banding that comes through, it snows from west to east from about hr 47 to hr 56, that is one quick storm.

amugs wrote:HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE

Mugs, your posts make me bust out laughing. I'm getting so hyped up just reading them.

I like the storms that put a lot down fast it seems better

Here is Uptons first crack at this. They are cute over there. They get an E for effort

I am hearing members 38,39 are the most accurate ensemble members in the EPS suite of all 51 members.......LOL!!

amugs wrote:I am hearing members 38,39 are the most accurate ensemble members in the EPS suite of all 51 members.......LOL!!

39 my ass!!

Seems like, waiting on the next NAM run to come into range, pretty good consensus with the models right now that the heaviest snows stay right along the coast, south and east of the NJ Turnpike. Given that the models a couple days ago had this thing sliding way to our southeast you could look at it two ways: 1.) Since the models had some suppression here it makes sense the storm stays a bit S&E and is a coastal special; 2.) That they've trended so far N&W in 24 hours that why wouldn't they trend another 75 miles or so in that direction between now and Sunday?
We do seem kind of due for a coastal special . . . not that "due" is a scientific term. lol.

Hmmm, 18z NAM looks a tick north? We'll see in a couple more minutes.

YOU GET SNOW, YOU GET SNOW....

Yessir. 18z NAM definitely has ticked north.

Watches just went up out of Mt. Holly

The 18Z NAM mid level low continues to get closer the coast.

Heaviest snow this run is just either side of I-95. I don't think this shift north made a huge difference in snow totals for the N&W folks, maybe a couple extra inches on LI and northwest of NYC, but it could spell trouble for the SNJ coast with more mixing possible and lower totals. Last run they were in the thick of the heavy snow, now much more modest amounts.

Honestly I don't see much of a difference with this track than what has been seen most of the winter.  Definitely have better mid level antecedent cold air.

Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware
Description
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

The 3K NAM has this a major event for a lot of the area.

Winter STorm Watch just came on to my Apple watch for suffolk county

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

CTZ007>012-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060930-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.210207T0900Z-210207T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
329 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Wow 3km nam! Low end Godzilla jeeze. 13.9 imby verbatim. Only model showing that high though I think no? Wsw up for 5 to 7.ni think that's a fair call ATM.

Winter Storm watch in my area as well. Predicting 1 inch overnight on Saturday and then 5-8 on Sunday.

Yesssss no winter storm watch yet here.
I’m hoping that works out as well in this storm as it did in the last storm (over two feet) for Orange County.

Holy SB Batman! What a turn of events over the last 2 days!

Dunnzoo wrote:Holy SB Batman! What a turn of events over the last 2 days!

Ha. Im a big fan of Storm Mode!