Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:32 pm

3km nam 12z shows some seriously heavy snow within the banding that comes through, it snows from west to east from about hr 47 to hr 56, that is one quick storm.

by **SNOW MAN** Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:47 pm

@amugs wrote:HERE WE GO - STRAP IN FOLKS GONNA BE A FAST N FURIOUS ONE INCOMING - WOMAN AND CHILDREN TO THE BACK PLEASE

Mugs, your posts make me bust out laughing. I'm getting so hyped up just reading them.

by Snownyc Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:57 pm

I like the storms that put a lot down fast it seems better

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:09 pm

Here is Uptons first crack at this. They are cute over there. They get an E for effort

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 StormTotalSnowWeb

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 StormTotalSnowWeb

by **amugs** Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:27 pm

I am hearing members 38,39 are the most accurate ensemble members in the EPS suite of all 51 members.......LOL!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 EtfC3shXIAEBShS?format=jpg&name=large

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 EtfC3shXIAEBShS?format=jpg&name=large

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:36 pm

@amugs wrote:I am hearing members 38,39 are the most accurate ensemble members in the EPS suite of all 51 members.......LOL!!

39 my ass!!

by **billg315** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:01 pm

Seems like, waiting on the next NAM run to come into range, pretty good consensus with the models right now that the heaviest snows stay right along the coast, south and east of the NJ Turnpike. Given that the models a couple days ago had this thing sliding way to our southeast you could look at it two ways: 1.) Since the models had some suppression here it makes sense the storm stays a bit S&E and is a coastal special; 2.) That they've trended so far N&W in 24 hours that why wouldn't they trend another 75 miles or so in that direction between now and Sunday?
We do seem kind of due for a coastal special . . . not that "due" is a scientific term. lol.

by **billg315** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:13 pm

Hmmm, 18z NAM looks a tick north? We'll see in a couple more minutes.

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:14 pm

YOU GET SNOW, YOU GET SNOW....

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 Ref1km12

by **billg315** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:15 pm

Yessir. 18z NAM definitely has ticked north.

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:16 pm

Watches just went up out of Mt. Holly

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:18 pm

The 18Z NAM mid level low continues to get closer the coast.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 85013

by **billg315** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:20 pm

Heaviest snow this run is just either side of I-95. I don't think this shift north made a huge difference in snow totals for the N&W folks, maybe a couple extra inches on LI and northwest of NYC, but it could spell trouble for the SNJ coast with more mixing possible and lower totals. Last run they were in the thick of the heavy snow, now much more modest amounts.

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:22 pm

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:22 pm

Honestly I don't see much of a difference with this track than what has been seen most of the winter. Definitely have better mid level antecedent cold air.

by **billg315** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:27 pm

Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware
Description
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

by **heehaw453** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:31 pm

The 3K NAM has this a major event for a lot of the area.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 10 3knam10

by mmanisca Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:31 pm

Winter STorm Watch just came on to my Apple watch for suffolk county

by **aiannone** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:31 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

CTZ007>012-NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-060930-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.210207T0900Z-210207T2300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
329 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

by **frank 638** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:34 pm

Winters storm watch went up for my area

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:41 pm

Wow 3km nam! Low end Godzilla jeeze. 13.9 imby verbatim. Only model showing that high though I think no? Wsw up for 5 to 7.ni think that's a fair call ATM.

by Irish Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:41 pm

Winter Storm watch in my area as well. Predicting 1 inch overnight on Saturday and then 5-8 on Sunday.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:14 pm

Yesssss no winter storm watch yet here.
I’m hoping that works out as well in this storm as it did in the last storm (over two feet) for Orange County.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:15 pm

Holy SB Batman! What a turn of events over the last 2 days!

by **Grselig** Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:20 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Holy SB Batman! What a turn of events over the last 2 days!

Ha. Im a big fan of Storm Mode!

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