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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:25 pm

There is another tick left NW and then a slight correction SE - I am telling you Panel 38 is the bomb and will be our final solution from EPS ensemble members

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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:25 pm

Lee Goldberg has 3 to 6 inches for lower Westchester nyc Long Island and most of nj of course this will go up

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:28 pm

RGEM is a tad SE - too narrow a strip of snow iMO the snow shield should be more expansive with teh jet structure
Fixed to light on precip I woudl say in comparison to other guidance


Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 68FA372F-F8A0-493A-B975-1C6D04E9BAA6.png.03f643f67d5bc92ad1b7a04c130e7b88


Last edited by amugs on Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:54 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:32 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 StormTotalSnowWeb1.png.9a07bd8a46c55a8656567d499e608fda

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:34 pm

@amugs wrote:RGEM is a tad SE - too narrow a strip of snow iMO the snow shield should be more expansive with teh jet structure
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 6A2B90BB-DDDB-4521-9C1A-7F60A56689F3.png.b62b6812dc863f032565e649d34da787

Thats 12z

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:37 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 3knam110

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 Sn10_a10


What's with 2 different 18z NAMs? Why are they so different? Why is the bottom not going to verify? What has to happen in order for it to verify?

Is it a fait accompli? How many on this board think of those two above, the bottom solution will verify and not the top one?

And what about the below trend on the CMC 36 hours out. Is it crazy too?


Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 Gem_as10

I mean...I have no idea what to think...Are we creeping closer to breaking the poo barrier with each storm? Is there a trend there, too?? At least if that is the case, there looks to be future chances to go along with that.

OMG...I am such a weenie. Predictions range from 1-7" at the moment. Still an inch on the ground in most parts of the yard too...

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:50 pm

GFS bumps NW good sign but wonky as usual precipitation field

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 1793956763_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh48_trend(1).gif.bef07c3771e27855d2a3c108326212a9


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:53 pm

Oh my goodness...this is awesome! Anybody seen this before?

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:55 pm

18 Z GFS oh my this models struggles

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 Gfs_asnow_neus_10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:56 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Oh my goodness...this is awesome! Anybody seen this before?

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

Yes they are well done presentations

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:59 pm

Got to love American IBM model

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:03 pm


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:25 pm

@amugs wrote:GFS bumps NW good sign but wonky as usual precipitation field

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 1793956763_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh48_trend(1).gif.bef07c3771e27855d2a3c108326212a9


With a negative tilt on the 500mb trough precipitation is going to be thrown way inland. GFS will come around to that eventually I think.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:29 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Oh my goodness...this is awesome! Anybody seen this before?

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
yes i always post the briefings for upton. its cool.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:43 pm

Wow
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 Receiv10
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:47 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:Oh my goodness...this is awesome! Anybody seen this before?

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
yes i always post the briefings for upton. its cool.

I see...that makes sense. I’ve just never looked at those because Upton Is usually not remotely accurate to my neck of the woods. But I’ve never seen that linked to Mt Hollys homepage like it was today either. Thanks for cheering us on too!!

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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:58 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 Receiv10
i am happy with that

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:59 pm

GFS closer up says Barney in da house
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 Gfs_as12

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:07 pm

18z GFS was a tick north but it was stingier on snow totals.

Storm will be moving fast so you'll have to get some really good rates to get big accumulations out of this. GFS may be under-doing it a bit, but I don't think a general 4-8 type event with some isolated higher amounts is off-base.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:13 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 PHI_Snow

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:30 pm

JMAN a close up for you jackpot zone

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 OKX_Snow

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:35 pm

@amugs wrote:JMAN a close up for you jackpot zone

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 OKX_Snow
actually technically yonkers is split in half by the blue and yellow, and im on the blue half lol, no matter i presume to fall somewhere in a decent area hopefully.  Do not need to jackpot, if your referring to the avatar that was a joke on Al as he told me to stop trying to jackpot, so thats my quote lol (note check eastern tip LI up to a foot!! And anyone on that tiny strip of 0 inches along border of rockland and westchester county? That stinks, and how does the NWS know that ; )


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:42 pm

@amugs wrote:JMAN a close up for you jackpot zone

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 OKX_Snow
On a serious note is there a way we can get those amounts shown on the tip of LI into the area without having a mixing risk, or is the placement pretty much wavered where its gonna waver to?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:13 pm

Euro ticked more north west giving me here almost 1 inch of liquid
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:JMAN a close up for you jackpot zone

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 11 OKX_Snow
On a serious note is there a way we can get those amounts shown on the tip of LI into the area without having a mixing risk, or is the placement pretty much wavered where its gonna waver to?

Jman no.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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