Back to Back Snow Events FEB 9th-11th

North trends for both waves

NYC and south is looking good for some snow again. Al posted the 250mb upper level map. Notice how there is a beautiful jet streak north of our area. This allows precip to expand north despite the low passing all the way near Delmarva. In addition, there is 500mb vorticity crossing through NJ

Yesterdays event left me with 6" of white gold. Frank's map verified for my area. My yard looks like the trenches they had in World War I. With all the paths to my sheds and my house. LOL !

SNOW MAN wrote:Yesterdays event left me with 6" of white gold. Frank's map verified for my area. My yard looks like the trenches they had in World War I. With all the paths to my sheds and my house. LOL !

Haha love that

SNOW MAN wrote:Yesterdays event left me with 6" of white gold. Frank's map verified for my area. My yard looks like the trenches they had in World War I. With all the paths to my sheds and my house. LOL !

Hey, Snow, glad you made out! Trained spotter in Monroe NY has me at 3.8 inches total.
Watch out for those cooties in the trenches,LOL. "Pack up your troubles in your old kit bag and smile"!

Have a good day!

docstox12 wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:Yesterdays event left me with 6" of white gold. Frank's map verified for my area. My yard looks like the trenches they had in World War I. With all the paths to my sheds and my house. LOL !

Hey, Snow, glad you made out! Trained spotter in Monroe NY has me at 3.8 inches total.
Watch out for those cooties in the trenches,LOL. "Pack up your troubles in your old kit bag and smile"!

Have a good day!

Almost 4" that's not to bad. The problem I have is that the piles are getting so high it's hard to reach the top when I'm shoveling. But I'll deal with it. Turning out to be the best Winter in my area in a few years. WOOOOHOOOO !!!!

WWA hoisted for Ocean County and points south!

SENJsnowman wrote:WWA hoisted for Ocean County and points south!

Good for you SENJ, you and the southern crew deserve to get something good! Enjoy it!

I wonder if this can sneak a bit further north and deliver some snow to middlesex county

Thinking this system tonight/tomorrow can surprise with 3"+ for I-78 southward. Probably going to be 12:1 ratio event away from the coast.

12z RGEM 10:1 and Crapola (Since ratios will be a factor this time)

10:1


Crapola:

aiannone wrote:

That's a great chart. Judging by mid-level temps 12:1 maybe conservative.

^^^^ Heehaw that is a good start but it has 2014, 2015 type storm written all over it with 12:1 at minimum with 15-20:1 range at play.

This bad boy keeps bumping North.

12z GFS

based on that is looks like we may see 2-4 across most of the state

GFS says NORTWARD HO GERANAMO to CP adn DOC WE GO!!!!!



Hoochie Koochie Map

12z CMC



Basically all models (Euro TBD) have .2-.3" of QPF (high ratio) from NYC Latitude on south

That's so damn close to giving me more than a inch or 2. The GFS is good I'll take that.

Wonder if this northward trend has another 40-50 miles in it in the next 12-18 hours?

It's actually getting interesting, and already is so for NYC and south. And to think I almost blew this one off completely 24 hours ago.

aiannone wrote:12z CMC



Basically all models (Euro TBD) have .2-.3" of QPF (high ratio) from NYC Latitude on south

Yes and it keeps ticking about 20miles North each run - different than a coastal - jet streak is improving as well allowing for the enhancement of the precipitation  to spread N.
That is 2.5 - 4" type storm NYC South.
Going to be a good hit for our SNJ peeps here 4-6" - 8" lollipops maybe.
Friday system depends on this system - so as we say take it one step at a time but very good trends here for our board overall.
Snow is snow and each little nickel and dime event adds up.
Big Dog, Archambault Storm when the pattern relaxes?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Wonder if this northward trend has another 40-50 miles in it in the next 12-18 hours?

It's actually getting interesting, and already is so for NYC and south. And to think I almost blew this one off completely 24 hours ago.

CP as I said to OLD Timer when asked about Thursday I said we need a HUGGGE change. I wrote this off going against my own words and conscience - bad move by me! I guess BIG MOMMA N was listening as this bad boy had snow Cape May and minimal into AC now it has shifted about 125 miles since then. It may have another 25 -50 miles left in it - have to see what the jet allows for : Tremendous come back here trend by the jet streak as it moves N and deepens. We'll see what the otehr 12Z suite has to say.


GFS is about ~15/20 miles more N with the purple streak allowing for a more northward expansion - can we get another 20-25 miles N for $1000 (Alex RIP!)
We'll see

EURO

Friday has come N as well MY GOD we are hitting singles, doubles and triples left and right

amugs wrote:Friday  has come N as well MY GOD we are hitting singles, doubles and triples left and right

There is def a clear northward trend to the precip shield today for sure. How far will it trend? How much more QPF can we get? Keep in mind cold dry air will be in place, so Id imagine some of the total QPF will be lost to evaporation...aka....... Virga.... at least initially. We shall see.

Euro much further N

Great visual of how much this has trended -Scott it will be a bit dry but it saturates fast

The past five runs of the European model have trended decidedly northward with tonight’s snowfall event, now bringing accumulating snow to NYC and more than 3” across Central and Southern NJ. This is just one model, but a great visualization on why forecasts are trending snowier. pic.twitter.com/OhAQ6bj0tC

— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) February 10, 2021

From a pro met
Dry then BOOM

Here's the BOOM