Long Range Discussion 22.0

The past few runs of the GFS op has popped a ridge in the NE allowing heights to rise dramatically. I believe it's a function of stronger blocking and better spacing of course.  The pattern is ominous for a major event.  Is the GFS onto something here well until it gets support I say no, but it has been good at picking out long wave synoptic features early.  So we just have to see.  Anyone thinking this is a slam dunk NO is wrong IMO.

06Z showing ridge


18z yesterday showing trough

The 06Z GFS is so tucked there is warm air aloft on SE NJ.

heehaw453 wrote:The 06Z GFS is so tucked there is warm air aloft on SE NJ.

Imo good to see a western solution

The GFS is outlier in its own ensembles suite.  Until you see better agreement within its own ensembles Hard Sell what the op is showing.

Euro ensembles from last night do have some tucked bombs and some BM bombs too for same time period.

Here’s your key difference between yesterday’s 12z GFS and this mornings 06z GFS valid for this Friday. The Atlantic storm - Nor’easter - is about 20mb weaker on the 06z run because it’s not yet fully phased with the PV. The phase still occurs, but much later than prior runs. If
you continue through the run doing this comparison you’ll notice the storm ends up further north on the 06z run, and heights along the east coast are able to normalize in time for the possible storm on the 16th.





I wouldn’t get too excited about what the GFS spat out this morning, because it’s own ensembles are in major disagreement. All of the members still slide the storm to our south. We’re also seeing the same from the Canadian and EURO - but I do think those models trended favorably for our area overnight. Plenty of time for positive changes to keep happening!

The storm intensifies more rapidly than before and it's because it has a little more room to breathe. The trough (labeled X) behind it gives it the room it needs to round the corner. The other thing is the blocking is much better past few runs and kind of squashes the north atlantic storm which creates more space.  The final piece to this monster is the trailing ULL phases into the storm at a perfect latitude to bring the trough axis right up the coast.  Far fetched, maybe so, but never underestimate the power of NAO blocking.  We don't get big dog storms w/out its help.

Just my ramblings here...

06Z Euro ensembles seem to think GFS maybe onto something.  Expect some BIG changes with this dynamic situation.  We are nowhere near being done with this one...

6z eps has some strong members up this way for Monday. The faster the ocean storm gets out of the way the better .

This is the 06Z Euro Control run.  It's very similar look to the 06Z GFS.  Much better spacing to the north and heights rise dramatically. 50/50 low to boot. That trailing energy hitting it in the rear NOT before it's negatively tilted.  Very delicate but plausible solution.

Def dont sleep on Sat yet either. NAM is actually pretty close for eastern members at 500mb. 6-8 hrs difference to the timing of either N or S piece and you may have somethig. LR NAM though so grain of salt for now

heehaw453 wrote:This is the 06Z Euro Control run.  It's very similar look to the 06Z GFS.  Much better spacing to the north and heights rise dramatically.  50/50 low to boot.  That trailing energy hitting it in the rear NOT before it's negatively tilted.  Very delicate but plausible solution.

Madonne…

sroc4 wrote:Def dont sleep on Sat yet either.  NAM is actually pretty close for eastern members at 500mb.  6-8 hrs difference to the timing of either N or S piece and you may have somethig.  LR NAM though so grain of salt for now

Yea, should be mentioned. I don’t like the rolling ridge though. 

ICON way west for Mondays storm.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
ICON way west for Mondays storm.

And it didn't even come close to a phase. That was purely better spacing to the north. Good TRENDS!

12Z GFS is a fully phased beast hugging coast. I want to see ensembles start aligning though.

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is a fully phased beast hugging coast.  I want to see ensembles start aligning though.

With that depiction we need to have the trough a bit further east or there will be some serious mixing issues. It’s all fodder at this point since we’re 5+ days away from the event. One things for sure if this storm lives to its full potential it would be a real powerhouse.

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is a fully phased beast hugging coast.  I want to see ensembles start aligning though.

That's three runs in a row the operational is showing 12+ for at least the north and west part of the forum. Interesting trends for sure. I'll leave the details to you and the experts.

GEM is a clone of the GFS

I have started a new thread

The GFS/GEFS show an endless run of cold and multiple snow threats. It's a winter weenie paradise starting this weekend all the way into February. Kudos Ray on recognizing this pattern.

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS/GEFS show an endless run of cold and multiple snow threats. It's a winter weenie paradise starting this weekend all the way into February. Kudos Ray on recognizing this pattern.

+1

amugs wrote:You guys are using OP 500mb maps a week out in this most volatile pattern with HUGE changes between the MJO in Phase 8, SOI crash, a cut off low in the Baja of Cali = Split Flow and STJ injection happening not to mention a NAO going Negative, EPO and PNA flipping with a PV entering the picture?
ENS peeps are teh way to go. In no way can one say this is a miss at the 15-17th time frame at this stage with all the aforementioned IMO.
Time will tell. GEFS and EURO ENS are showing some very good LP positions and indicy members. Just like Friday's storm models are going o struggle mightily until we are in a few days.
Time will tell but the Massive Ocean storm has a huge role in the follow up system. If that system doesn't exit quick enough than we may very miss the 15-17th but if it does than the follow up storm can come N.

Bump that's all.

EPO on EURO is insanely Negative - this would rival the 93-94 January MLK week cold outbreak



Saturday and Sunday are colder than today - the Arctic air comes N NW not NW which allowed the Great Lakes to help modify the air a bit than modeled a few days ago.

This is exactly what we want to see for a sustained cold adn stormy pattern

GEFS is locked into a well-oiled machine at the moment. Low in Scandi/Barents, High in E Asia, Low in the Aleutians, Highs dropping down E of the Rockies. It's quite a sight pic.twitter.com/qrS3Q0ThPa

— griteater (@griteater) January 11, 2022

Stretch it real good!! You may say well the PV is very strong and yes very looking at Zonal wind charts BUT we an elongation that has taken place and looks to be sustained through the end of the month and maybe beyond as a result of teh MJO phase 6 adn the +EAMT along with the SCAN HP through the last 2.5 week of December.

"Once, twice, three times a stretched PV" This morning's GFS suggestive of two more stretched polar vortex events for the hattrick this month. This would likely persist #cold & possibly #snowy pattern across eastern North America. Confident about the first, second is speculative. pic.twitter.com/AF98FBHVYl

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 11, 2022

Buckle up peeps we are gonna be tracking for a nice period of time. Don't fret if every storm isn't a bomb etc and please have patience to the pattern and not live n die by every OP run. Recognize the pattern is conducive for opportunities and as I said in my rant above - this is a volatile pattern and even the ENS will struggle to pick up on things BUT we can see Friday storm guidance dance with some of these storms. Ala 14-15 and 17-18 IMO.
The Aleutian Low recycling is very important to blocking the Pac Jet and its retraction as is the Siberian and Korean Peninsula Systems. This will allow teh EPO to stay and PNA to rise.

Okay I know the eye is on the prize for some about Sun/Mon but what a pattern setting up - if we can get the NAO to slide 150 Miles more West but it will work. This is a bitter cold and multiple storm opportunity pattern

Momma Mia that is one hell of a arctic outbreak forecasted- Grid gonna be taxed like Docstox when he trades Nat Gas!!!

A little nervous the PV gets too far south from a stormy standpoint. But yea, that is a verrrry cold look. Record breaking.