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November 2021 Obs & Discussions

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Post by frank 638 Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:50 am

Second time had a little frost on my car .Got down to 35° and the fall foliage looks amazing I love this time of the year

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:54 am

The snow is pretty scarce on Eastern side of CA for this time of year.  Even fairly deep into Quebec and New Brunswick.  I don't put much faith into the anything beyond 10 days w.r.t. to models.  But if we get cooperation from the arctic oscillations then we have a good shot at at least average snowfall this season.  The Pacific has not been our friend since winter of 2013-14 so I'm not optimistic of -EPO/+PNA for long stretches and don't see any evidence early to contradict that. It's about timing things like always and how do we capitalize on the windows.  The winters a la 2013/14 are rare birds indeed.

Current snow depth for eastern side of CA and northern New England.  Deep into Quebec about 6" of snow OTG and you see northern New England has nothing.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Nov 21, 2021 1:36 pm

So heehaw (and others), am I correct in surmising that the potentially great set up for late Nov/early Dec that we were still seeing signs of just a week or so ago has ‘devolved’ to one of less blocking and at least more of a progressive flow than what was previously indicated?

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Nov 21, 2021 3:59 pm

There is blocking and a drop in the NAO for next week. It doesn't look like we'll get anything of consequence in terms of snowfall though. However it seems to be short lived and head positive as we get into early December. The PNA seems to go negative too. Without a good ridge in Alaska then this probably means warmer air as we get into early part of December. That doesn't mean December won't be good and it just may take some time getting going. That's consistent with climatology for most areas anyways. I'd say watch the AO/NAO and I believe we won't get a lot of help from the Pacific just as has been the case for quite some time.

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Post by amugs Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:23 pm

MJO giving us some hints at what could be a warming start to Dec 1ST full week then we start to flip as per MJO. This heat now will help pay off as the heat Flux shows a big dip in Strat winds and disrupts the PV elongation, knocking it around a bit which shows it leaning towards the American Cont. This IF happens will aid in blocking over the high latitude regions of the triplets EPO, AO and NAO. Again IF all this comes to fruition. Fast start to winter still on the books IMO.


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Post by amugs Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:27 pm


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Post by amugs Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:29 pm

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 U_65N_10hpa.png.f103e76801c88a6bd5791e2ca75603bf

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Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 21, 2021 10:30 pm

I’m beginning to get some strong PTSD from the winter of ‘17-‘18. Miserable start, remarkable finish. That was the year that everybody gave up on winter, but I remained adamant that come the end of February we’d flip, and flip hard. We did, and snowed into April with back-to-back-to-back-to-back nor-easters in March, the first of which brought a “surprise” 1-2 feet of snow to areas of eastern PA and central/upstate NY, as well as several inches as far south as the Mason-Dixon Line (I remember this event well, as everybody thought I was crazy for my forecast of that…..hehe. We have that whole monthly thread somewhere, and it may end up serving as a pretty good guide for this year, though I’m sure our die-hard phanatics will remember just fine). Difference this year is that our progression is several weeks earlier, with a better starting point. I’m certainly no long range expert, and don’t claim to be. I’ve also not had more than about ten total minutes to skim over some things. But I’m starting to get an inclination that we forfeit all of December and the opening half of January before we may capitalize on an extended “old fashioned” winter from week three of January through mid-to late-March. And much like ‘17-‘18, I think it would be the Stratosphere that would save our bacon, and ironically, it would be the torturous MJO cycling in phases 4-6 from now through the New Year that would bring the warmth’s own demise.

Just something to think about. Wink

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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:03 am

Ray. Good to see you back. You kind of beat me to it.  I was going to try and write up some thoughts this week, despite them not being very encouraging for the short and medium term.  

Stratosphere is going strong and cold; centered just off the pole but on the Asian side of the hemisphere. Result appears to be losing the AO and NAO, both going positive. With the base state of the atmosphere in a La Niña, flirting with moderate status, and the MJO pulse recirculating through the phases 4-6 we are also losing the negative WPO, the positive PNA and we continue to have a positive EPO.

This is pretty much every teleconnection going the wrong direction all at once. Does this mean it can’t snow or that we won’t see flakes?  Not necessarily, but it likely means AN temps will be the theme with days wearing short sleeves in early December are possible. Like when the modeling is depicting a shift towards colder pattern, we still have to see how it all evolves however.

Like you said though Ray sometimes things have to get worse in order to get better. I just hope the MJo pulses are strong enough to make enough of an impact to disrupt the strat. If there continues to be weak to moderate amplitude through these phases it may not be enough to substantially weaken the Strat vortex. For the time being I am going to remain skeptical.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:35 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Ray. Good to see you back. You kind of beat me to it.  I was going to try and write up some thoughts this week, despite them not being very encouraging for the short and medium term.  

Stratosphere is going strong and cold; centered just off the pole but on the Asian side of the hemisphere. Result appears to be losing the AO and NAO, both going positive. With the base state of the atmosphere in a La Niña, flirting with moderate status, and the MJO pulse recirculating through the phases 4-6 we are also losing the negative WPO, the positive PNA and we continue to have a positive EPO.

This is pretty much every teleconnection going the wrong direction all at once. Does this mean it can’t snow or that we won’t see flakes?  Not necessarily, but it likely means AN temps will be the theme with days wearing short sleeves in early December are possible. Like when the modeling is depicting a shift towards colder pattern, we still have to see how it all evolves however.

Like you said though Ray sometimes things have to get worse in order to get better. I just hope the MJo pulses are strong enough to make enough of an impact to disrupt the strat. If there continues to be weak to moderate amplitude through these phases it may not be enough to substantially weaken the Strat vortex. For the time being I am going to remain skeptical.

Thanks, brother! It’s nice to be back!! Sorry that I’ve been so aloof since Henri, but I’ve been working seven days a week ever since, and haven’t had much time for anything else. However, that should end this Friday, and just in time for our most active season Very Happy

You bring up a great point with the NAO/AO positive states coupling with the intensifying stratospheric vortex, positively interfering with the unfavorable MJO standing wave over the Maritime Continent, and I fully agree. I think our December and first half of January is lost to repeating cutters with trailing cold fronts and wind. However, as much as it will hurt, we should look for as strong of a standing MJO pulse into phases 5-6-7 as we can get during that period (which I think will be the result thanks to a cooperative La Niña setup/devolvement), because with a coupled descending negative QBO phase, I’m actually beginning to like our prospects for a significant stratospheric vortex disruption, if not an entire breakdown/split come approximately in time for the New Year. Given the 4-6 week lag, on average, the start of the flip around week three of January would fit that context pretty well. We’d likely have one massive cutter, and then would have to watch for something to dumbbell it’s way around right behind it to start things with a nice bang as the blocking starts finding its way down through the Troposphere.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:38 pm

Again, this is all HIGHLY preliminary conjecture, and I hope to have a bit more to come down the road.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:33 am

Although I think it may be too fast, tonight’s 00z GFS Operational appears to be picking up on the above evolution……

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:38 am

Note the surge in warmth/heights at 10hPa over northeastern China and the associated muting of warmth toward the Maritime Continent.

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_tz12

This is EXACTLY what we want to see in future runs of guidance, and we want to see it sustain itself. However, even though I think it’s too fast by a few weeks, it lends a little credence to my previously outlined ideas. WE TRACK!!

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:42 am

Idk why I can’t get the gif animation to work….grrrr lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:45 am

I agree with what has been said by Scott and Ray...pattern in the early going is not great. That said, you never know when a sneaky wave timed with cold air could bring snow, especially N&W of NYC in December.

A nice 40 degrees outside. At least it 'feels' like winter!

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:46 pm

Need this to come to fruition IMO to get some episodes of cold for timing with a storm. Hopefully it goes to 8.

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 FE46ESVXoBgvg80?format=jpg&name=medium

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 FE46ESWXoAscSJK?format=jpg&name=900x900

Noll Alludes to it a Jet Retraction would be helpful for a time being before and leading up to and through the holiday season.


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Post by amugs Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:55 pm

From Dr. Cohen
November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 FE42bGUXoAEkJBE?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

That cold pool is going to shunt the cold and allow PAC air to invade the CONUS by the looks of this as Noll points it out as well. Hopefully it is not as pronounced and pulls that trough over the BC region a bit to allow some of that cold air to bleed in. I'll take N to ~ 3* above normal IF we can. Long ways to go of course.

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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:46 pm

Not sure what everyone else is seeing but 12 of the next 14 days look to be below normal starting with yesterday for CPK.  That is the longest   stretch of below normal temps in many months.  Last night and today's guidance have shifted to a more colder pattern due to the pollward aleutian ridge which is now a little further East than previously modeled.  Classic nina December.  also the polar vortex is on our side of the globe If you believe the EPS and GEPS.  Several clippers are going to pass through starting Sunday and continuing into next week any one of them could produce our first snow of the season here.  I don't believe the MJO is driving the pattern right now It's basically been in the circle of death And the next wave looks to be weaker according to latest guidance Obviously things can change but I am somewhat encouraged today
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:05 pm

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Image.png.4138504aef90e6176243069fb76cd19b
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:07 pm

^^
 That's a classic December Nina look
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:10 pm

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Sn10_acc.us_ne.png.bc10721cea6b5f6a88df93ec027bec54
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:11 pm

^^
Euro for sunday/Monday. Has eps support
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:18 pm

@algae888 wrote:November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Sn10_acc.us_ne.png.bc10721cea6b5f6a88df93ec027bec54

Well that would be nice!
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:44 pm

@algae888 wrote:Not sure what everyone else is seeing but 12 of the next 14 days look to be below normal starting with yesterday for CPK.  That is the longest   stretch of below normal temps in many months.  Last night and today's guidance have shifted to a more colder pattern due to the pollward aleutian ridge which is now a little further East than previously modeled.  Classic nina December.  also the polar vortex is on our side of the globe If you believe the EPS and GEPS.  Several clippers are going to pass through starting Sunday and continuing into next week any one of them could produce our first snow of the season here.  I don't believe the MJO is driving the pattern right now It's basically been in the circle of death And the next wave looks to be weaker according to latest guidance Obviously things can change but I am somewhat encouraged today

It may be below average, but it’s a pattern that doesn’t really support any meaningful snow. I’m not ruling out a weak wave or a clipper that could drop an inch or two, but any sizable storm is going to cut and surge us back into the 50s or even near 60 for the foreseeable future, IMO.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:46 pm

@algae888 wrote:November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Image.png.4138504aef90e6176243069fb76cd19b

This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.

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