Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions

by **rb924119** Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:44 pm

algae888 wrote:Not sure what everyone else is seeing but 12 of the next 14 days look to be below normal starting with yesterday for CPK. That is the longest stretch of below normal temps in many months. Last night and today's guidance have shifted to a more colder pattern due to the pollward aleutian ridge which is now a little further East than previously modeled. Classic nina December. also the polar vortex is on our side of the globe If you believe the EPS and GEPS. Several clippers are going to pass through starting Sunday and continuing into next week any one of them could produce our first snow of the season here. I don't believe the MJO is driving the pattern right now It's basically been in the circle of death And the next wave looks to be weaker according to latest guidance Obviously things can change but I am somewhat encouraged today

It may be below average, but it’s a pattern that doesn’t really support any meaningful snow. I’m not ruling out a weak wave or a clipper that could drop an inch or two, but any sizable storm is going to cut and surge us back into the 50s or even near 60 for the foreseeable future, IMO.

by **rb924119** Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:46 pm

algae888 wrote:

This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.

by **rb924119** Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:50 pm

And in fact, assuming the above corrections take place, ypubmay watch your 12-day stretch of weakly below average become muted into six or seven days with less of a departure.

by **algae888** Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:
algae888 wrote:

This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.

Hey rb. Hope all is well. I have to respectively disagree. That's a gradient pattern running right thru the country With plenty of cold air in Canada. I do agree that we will not see big storms in this pattern as the Gulf of Mexico will be shut off but overrunning/SWFE events and clippers that redevelop Are more likely and those could be fun. Even a hint of an East based NAO block

by **sroc4** Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:18 pm

algae888 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
algae888 wrote:

This demonstrates that point perfectly. Note how the body of the negatively anomalies is sitting over British Columbia. That’s the kiss of death for us. And you can also easily see the southeast ridge fighting back. As we get closer, watch for this to correct to more eastern ridge and western/northwestern trough, more trough over Nova Scotia with a storm track to our west and north. Rinse, wash, repeat through December.

Hey rb. Hope all is well. I have to respectively disagree. That's a gradient pattern running right thru the country With plenty of cold air in Canada. I do agree that we will not see big storms in this pattern as the Gulf of Mexico will be shut off but overrunning/SWFE events and clippers that redevelop Are more likely and those could be fun. Even a hint of an East based NAO block

Al I posted a response to this map in the LR thread. Its possible that we get some rogue s/w or clipper type system that moves in on the heals of the cold frontal passage bringing some wintry chances, but it would have to be perfect. In the other thread I explain my reasoning as to why I think what you see in this map is not likely to verify.

by **amugs** Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:36 pm

This very BN for the region.

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Fe5qhf10

by **amugs** Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:49 pm

Aye Caramba cold peeps!! Wind Chills bundle up .
November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Image.png.4b310974f1b626fe7a112e2429b9fb37

by **jmanley32** Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:15 am

Ummm 00z gfs has 6 to 12 for the 29th and then another and by Dec 7th has 12 to 18 total snowfall...where did that come from. I'm gonna be in trouble if we get a big snowstorm on the 29th I gotta be traveling back to NY for work on Tues. If it happens can it be on Tuesday plz lol. From reading here though sounds like pattern is unlikely for a storm to happen in the next 5 days.

by **jmanley32** Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:20 am

amugs wrote:Aye Caramba cold peeps!! Wind Chills bundle up .

And of course our cheapo landlord doesn't have any heat going. I hope despite the rise in oil in gas they don't freeze their tenants out to save a buck.

by **frank 638** Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:31 am

Brrrrrr it’s cold 🥶 outside 31 *

by **sroc4** Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:51 am

models for Sunday are just close enough to make me go...

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbarkpost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2Fpugtilt

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbarkpost.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F12%2Fpugtilt

But just far enough away to say give it another day. or two.

by **jmanley32** Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:52 am

sroc4 wrote:models for Sunday are just close enough to make me go...

But just far enough away to say give it another day. or two.

Yup. I'm seeing trans Siberian Orchestra at mohegan Sun sunday. Luckily their stage set up I'd so elaborate it takes days and 15 big rigs to bring it and set up so I know they will already be there. Snow.would fit perfectly with their show if any of you know who they are and I highly suggest making it a point to see them at least once in your life.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:13 am

WHOO HOO...WE BROKE 30....29.4 this morning!!

by **heehaw453** Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:51 am

For Sunday threat there is Atlantic blocking that could give this some upside for some folks. I think this is a C-2" type of threat for this area. To me the ULL is just a bit too far north for our immediate area as it's not giving enough time for consolidation of the short wave energy. NE could get a good shot of snow with this setup. But again the blocking may surprise for areas further south.

My causes to pause
1. Climatology this time of year
2. The surface temperatures along coastal areas are marginal
3. The ULL is kind of far north as modeled

by **amugs** Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:18 am

heehaw453 wrote:For Sunday threat there is Atlantic blocking that could give this some upside for some folks. I think this is a C-2" type of threat for this area. To me the ULL is just a bit too far north for our immediate area as it's not giving enough time for consolidation of the short wave energy. NE could get a good shot of snow with this setup. But again the blocking may surprise for areas further south.

My causes to pause
1. Climatology this time of year
2. The surface temperatures along coastal areas are marginal
3. The ULL is kind of far north as modeled

Clipper needs to dive to VA Capes and transfer here for us to get a 'snowstorm" per say BUT the front coming through IF we can get some lift (jet streak at 250/200) and frontogenesis going it could be a a 2" type of snow for sure but the C-2" scenario is good for now.
These are good for SNE - CT from say Fairfield North.
Models struggling mightily with the Tropical Activity and EAMT, shortening for the wavelengths etc causing it to flip flop extremely.

by **jmanley32** Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:59 am

Honestly I am good with holding off for a good storm until after the holiday weekend, now everyone knows I love a big storm but it would just be very difficult travel, i hope for this one i am in a snow hole in CT lol (bet you never thought you would hear that). C-2 probably minimal travel issues on 95 if any at all with as mugs stated coastal warmth. Doesn't a early snow often translate to a sucky winter?

by **nutleyblizzard** Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Honestly I am good with holding off for a good storm until after the holiday weekend, now everyone knows I love a big storm but it would just be very difficult travel, i hope for this one i am in a snow hole in CT lol (bet you never thought you would hear that). C-2 probably minimal travel issues on 95 if any at all with as mugs stated coastal warmth. Doesn't a early snow often translate to a sucky winter?

I wouldn’t consider this as an “early” snow event since meteorological winter starts on Dec 1st. Only October snowfalls tend to jinx our winters.

by **sroc4** Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:35 pm

Quick update. GFS for the past 3 runs has trended unfavorable at 500, but take a peek at the 12z UKIE...shes a beaut

by **amugs** Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:41 pm

Euro jet streak gives you a what?? Snow in the air??

by **amugs** Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:51 pm

Euro .... will it be right? This would be first true flakes of the city to the coast and measurable snows N&W of the city. Let's see how this plays out with 108 hrs till showtime.
From Bill @ NFSWx

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Fe_zc010

by **amugs** Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:26 pm

18Z GEFS from Anthony Siciliano

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Fe_42q10

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Fe_41s10

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:59 am

The upper level energy associated with the Sunday storm is impressively strong, and responding/amplifying ahead of a western ridge, but the northern energy is struggling with a full on phase with the southern energy.

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_15

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_15

The northern vort is so strong that we’re seeing a surface low “pop” north and west of our area, which of course means milder air invading the boundary levels of the atmosphere along the coast. This wouldn’t even deliver much for those N&W if true.

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

November 2021 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

by **amugs** Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:43 am

1st flakes of the season for many here Sunday night it seems. Let see what the EURO has to say.

by **heehaw453** Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:07 am

For Sunday I think any snow will be well NW of I95. If there is enough instability then I could see a coating in places. ULL is way too far north and the models are pretty locked and loaded on that now. First week of December probably more legit threat window with deeper cold air and a little deeper into the snow season.

by **sroc4** Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:44 am

heehaw453 wrote:For Sunday I think any snow will be well NW of I95. If there is enough instability then I could see a coating in places. ULL is way too far north and the models are pretty locked and loaded on that now. First week of December probably more legit threat window with deeper cold air and a little deeper into the snow season.

NAM and CMC show just enough uncertainty in just how deep the trough digs to pause another 24hrs before discounting closer to the coast

by **amugs** Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:46 pm

Had some flurries here around 4PM

. 2nd of this young season

by **dkodgis** Fri Nov 26, 2021 8:26 pm

Flurried here, too. Temp=32 degrees. Winds are the story. Sustained gusts=32 mph. Steady winds around 22 mph. Wind coming off the Shawangunk mountains down to lower elevations are shaking my windows

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