HomeNovember 2021 Obs & Discussions
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by Dunnzoo Fri Nov 05, 2021 8:02 am
29* this morning, going to be a gorgeous weekend! Looking forward to the 60's next week, a November thaw! lol
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by aiannone Fri Nov 05, 2021 8:51 am
amugs wrote:Alex here ya
Was 38* before I went to bed around 10pm. Suddenly a wind of 5-10mph started blowing after midnight keeping temps around 40 all night. Some frost on the rooftops. Freeze warning up for tonight. With HP in place and clear skies, finally might have a hard freeze.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by dkodgis Fri Nov 05, 2021 8:52 am
22 degrees this morning. There go the mums. 46 days until winter.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:13 pm
That's a deep trough, after the 12th it changes on this map
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by dkodgis Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:19 am
So this means a period of potential stormy weather just (before or) after the trough? At 3:20 am right now, 26 degrees. The dog told me so when I took her out. Mom, how's that new puppy doing?
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by sroc4 Sat Nov 06, 2021 7:15 am
Good morning everyone. Its beautiful crisp sat morning in the fall. In the LR thread on the first of the month I had mentioned the MJO looked to be emerging out in the warmer phases(4,5,6) and that forecast seems to be on track beginning this upcoming week. Fortunately the amplitude does not seem to be too crazy, and perhaps relatively short lived. Despite a -AO, by mid week you can see a trough crashes the WC and the EPO is positive and PNA negative flooding the country with a Pac air mass; locking the old air well to the north.
The result will be a trend towards above normal temps. Below are the temps for my town and you can see that trend. But fortunately as you can see that trend seems to reverse as we head towards the 10day.
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ny/wading-river
The result will be a trend towards above normal temps. Below are the temps for my town and you can see that trend. But fortunately as you can see that trend seems to reverse as we head towards the 10day.
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/ny/wading-river
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by algae888 Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:48 am
Scott I could be mistaken but an MJO in phases 45 and 6 in November and December during a LA Nina is usually a colder signal for the East and promotes North Atlantic blocking. Right now we're in the COD weak phase 3 Heading towards 45 and 6.
Matt hugo:
Once again the MJO and key tropical forcing signal remains or progressing over the Maritimes (MJO phases 4-5-6) and this often equates to N Atlantic blocking...we are now seeing that in NWP. Going to be a fun time this winter for all the #coldies out there!
Matt hugo:
Once again the MJO and key tropical forcing signal remains or progressing over the Maritimes (MJO phases 4-5-6) and this often equates to N Atlantic blocking...we are now seeing that in NWP. Going to be a fun time this winter for all the #coldies out there!
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by sroc4 Sat Nov 06, 2021 10:05 am
algae888 wrote:Scott I could be mistaken but an MJO in phases 45 and 6 in November and December during a LA Nina is usually a colder signal for the East and promotes North Atlantic blocking. Right now we're in the COD weak phase 3 Heading towards 45 and 6.
Matt hugo:
Once again the MJO and key tropical forcing signal remains or progressing over the Maritimes (MJO phases 4-5-6) and this often equates to N Atlantic blocking...we are now seeing that in NWP. Going to be a fun time this winter for all the #coldies out there!
Not sure what the sources are for those statements Al. Not to say it isn’t true however. I personally have never seen any kind of charts or references other than this site(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ ) to indicate specifically MJO phases and temp anomaly. I’d love it is there was one to compare the various MJO phases, time of year, and La Niña year vs El Niño vs La Nada etc. Does Matt Hugo provide a source for that statement?
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by algae888 Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:44 am
sroc4 wrote:algae888 wrote:Scott I could be mistaken but an MJO in phases 45 and 6 in November and December during a LA Nina is usually a colder signal for the East and promotes North Atlantic blocking. Right now we're in the COD weak phase 3 Heading towards 45 and 6.
Matt hugo:
[size=32]Once again the MJO and key tropical forcing signal remains or progressing over the Maritimes (MJO phases 4-5-6) and this often equates to N Atlantic blocking...we are now seeing that in NWP. Going to be a fun time this winter for all the [/size][size=32]#coldies[/size][size=32] out there![/size]
Not sure what the sources are for those statements Al. Not to say it isn’t true however. I personally have never seen any kind of charts or references other than this site(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ ) to indicate specifically MJO phases and temp anomaly. I’d love it is there was one to compare the various MJO phases, time of year, and La Niña year vs El Niño vs La Nada etc. Does Matt Hugo provide a source for that statement?
I do not know what his source is And have not Personally seen any sources But what I've read from other mets Is that phase 45 and 6 Causes warming in the stratosphere which would weaken the SPV and eventually cause high latitude blocking in the Atlantic. I could be wrong but if I come across any literature on this I will post it
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by algae888 Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:56 am
Here is an article I just came across more correlation between MJ o's phase of 6 and 7 with high latitude blocking.
Abstract and Figures
European and eastern United States (U.S.) wintertime weather is strongly influenced by large-scale modes of variability in the Northern Hemisphere such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative phase of the NAO has been linked to both the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase with convection in the West Pacific (phase 6 and 7) and to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSW), but the relative role of each phenomena is not clear, and the two phenomena are themselves linked, as more than half of SSW events were preceded by blackphases 6 and 7 of the MJO. Here, we disentangle the relative roles of MJO phase 6/7 and stratospheric variability for northern hemisphere surface weather during boreal winter. We show that stratospheric variability leads to significantly different north Atlantic anomalies if it is preceded by MJO phase 6/7. Furthermore, MJO phase 6/7 leads to a long-lived negative AO pattern only if it modulates the stratosphere first. Hence, proper attribution of their respective influence on surface weather needs to take into consideration the linkages between these two phenomena. blackFinally, MJO phase 6/7 events that lead to SSW can be differentiated from those which do not by their characteristics within the tropics: only MJO phase 6/7 events in which enhanced convection propagates into the South China Sea, which rarely occurs in winter, leads to SSWs
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by algae888 Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:21 pm
The MJO going into phase 6 in late November would support a big ridge over Western North America and colder temperatures in the East.
This is another example from what I read this from a knowledgeable post from another board.
Wish I can upload pictures but having trouble Doing so
This is another example from what I read this from a knowledgeable post from another board.
Wish I can upload pictures but having trouble Doing so
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by aiannone Sat Nov 06, 2021 3:19 pm
28.1 this morning. Full on freeze
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by sroc4 Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:04 pm
algae888 wrote:The MJO going into phase 6 in late November would support a big ridge over Western North America and colder temperatures in the East.
This is another example from what I read this from a knowledgeable post from another board.
Wish I can upload pictures but having trouble Doing so
Hey Al check it out. So using these three sites:
1)https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
2)http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
3)https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/
I looked up what years were either weak or moderate La Ninas. I then looked up the MJO plots for Nov, Dec for those years. And then plotted the 500mb anomaly only for days that the MJO was out in Phases 4, 5, or 6 during Nov or Dec only. In 1984, 2005, and 2016 (all weak La Nina years) the MJO did not spend any time in phases 4, 5, or 6 during Nov or Dec. And 1983 only spent 7 days in phases 5-6 before cont to phase 7 then 8. Unfort the MJO site only goes as far back as 1975, so any La Nina year prior are not included.
CONCLUSION: Three out of four weak La Ninas that spent time in phases 4, 5, and/or 6 yielded a trough south of the Aleutian islands, ridging along the WC of NA and a trough in the east; whereas, all three moderate La Nina years did not yield a trough south of the Aleutian islands, the mean ridge was off the WC of NA, and no significant trough developed in the east while spending time in these phases.
Currently I think we are considered on the boarder line of a weak vs Mod La Nina and the MJO plots seem to be emerging out in Phase 4 as we speak.
So lets see how A) the MJO ends up. Does it remain weak and collapse into the center again, or does it gain amplitude and run these phases, and B) how the 500mb mean pattern develop should the MJO be weak vs gain amplitude through 4, 5, and 6. Interesting to watch unfold. I think it should go without saying that the weaker the MJO pulse the less influence on the overall pattern and other main drivers will dominate vs the stronger the pulse the more it will exert its influences on the big picture.
WEAK LA NINA(1983, 2000, 2008, 2017)
MOD LA NINA(1995, 2011, 2020)
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:22 pm
After this warm week Friday we go back to BN temp regime and things for the 2nd half looking more favorable for snow chances as our PV is forecasted to elongate, -EPO/+PNA couplet with NA Blocking looks to engage the warming MJO phases will help down the road as that warm MJO tropical air goes up over the Asian Continent and EAMT moves this air to help disrupt the PV in the Arctic Region.
I read by 2 pro Mets that GFS does better with Nina bass states the EURO. Hypothesized?? Maybe as is most science is.
I read by 2 pro Mets that GFS does better with Nina bass states the EURO. Hypothesized?? Maybe as is most science is.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:56 pm
This what I mean for 2nd half of Nov.
-EPO/+PNA
-AO/NAO
-EPO/+PNA
-AO/NAO
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Sat Nov 06, 2021 9:01 pm
GEFS agree
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by weatherwatchermom Sun Nov 07, 2021 6:21 am
34° for the low....love it
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by dkodgis Sun Nov 07, 2021 8:10 am
24 for a low and a warning on my phone about freezing fog. That’s not a term I am familiar with. I looked it up. I found ice fog too. I’m in a fog about these two terms
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Sun Nov 07, 2021 2:35 pm
29* for my low again. Heavy frost.
Ch
eck put my harvest/bounty from last weekend from my gardens.
Ch
eck put my harvest/bounty from last weekend from my gardens.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by frank 638 Sun Nov 07, 2021 3:49 pm
wow the Sicilian eggplants looks delicious .I showed my mom she wants them so bad she wants to make eggplant caponataamugs wrote:29* for my low again. Heavy frost.
Ch
eck put my harvest/bounty from last weekend from my gardens.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by dkodgis Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:30 pm
An education for me. I am unfamiliar with this type of eggplant. Glad I found out about it
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:18 pm
Coastal Peeps - Flood Advisory up for coast
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by docstox12 Mon Nov 08, 2021 6:12 am
amugs wrote:29* for my low again. Heavy frost.
Ch
eck put my harvest/bounty from last weekend from my gardens.
Mugsy, beautiful crops you have there! Good job!
28 degrees ,clear and calm.
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:12 am
May get up to 70 degrees today...
It'll feel like fall again this weekend!
It'll feel like fall again this weekend!
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:48 am
Clipper next Monday which could bring first flakes for N & W peeps
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Re: November 2021 Obs & Discussions
by amugs Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:50 am
Give this in Dec and Jan and we be rocking!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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