January 2022 Obs & Discussions

Have to say…GFS was not backing down from bringing snow to the area on Monday while every other model kept this storm well S&E. Now, all guidance insists on there being snow on Monday. How much will depend how far N&W the snow line gets. There will likely be sharp cutoffs to those N&W.

Temperatures are expected to fall 25+ degrees overnight after the passage of a cold front. Whatever snow does fall , especially across NNJ, is going to be higher than a 10:1 ratio. Probably more like 15:1. Here’s a look at how much precip falls on the latest EPS:



The dark green shading is about 3-5” of snow while light green is 1-3”. As you progress more south into the blue shade you’re looking at 6”+ of snow. Clearly, SNJ into the Mid Atlantic will be the jackpot where significant snow will fall. I’m fairly confident in saying that considering the setup. The tricker forecast is NYC because they’re right on the gradient. A tick more north and the city is looking at 3-6” of snow.

Until we get clarity I am putting the city in 2-4” of snow. This includes Long Island and NNJ (excluding extreme northern and NW NJ). Then as you go south from there you’re looking at potentially 4”+ of snow.

Start time is 4am Monday. End time is 4pm Monday. Relatively fast mover.

Thanks for the update Frank...and if I could humbly request:

Thread! Thread! Thread!  

Over 6 inches for LGA and 9 inches for central Jersey on the SREF. Close to 7 inches for JFK.

Ok, so maybe premature on the thread talk until more of this forum area is in a real high impact zone.

BUT, for our southern friends (Monmouth County south) the latest Mt Holly discussion is very enticing:

"Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures
will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing
across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in
during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the
southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough
for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time,
continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation
intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate
to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning
into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater
at times will be possible in the Winter Storm Watch area. As the
wave of low pressure pulls away, snow should end during the late
afternoon or evening hours, from southwest to northeast.

Regarding amounts, antecedent warm conditions and the warm ground
are certainly a consideration, and snow ratios will likely be well
below 10:1 at least at first. However, during the more intense
period of snow, the warm ground could easily be overwhelmed. A multi-
cycle model QPF blend and snow ratio blend yielded a swath of 4 to 6
inches of snow, locally a little higher, across our southern zones.
There is likely to be a sharp cutoff to the north due to very dry
air invading along with the cold. The cutoff to the north will
probably be sharper than currently forecast. Should the northern
trend continue even more, it`s even possible mixing with rain could
become a factor across the south, and that the higher snow amounts
could shift further north.

Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system
due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the
initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch
could also be in play for significant snow, even approaching metro
Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be
considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is
correct. But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the
way in that direction at once; the current forecast already
constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor
the forecast today."

I suppose some of that last talk would have a big impact on CNJ and NYC if it were to happen.

SENJsnowman wrote:Ok, so maybe premature on the thread talk until more of this forum area is in a real high impact zone.

BUT, for our southern friends (Monmouth County south) the latest Mt Holly discussion is very enticing:

"Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures
will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing
across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in
during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the
southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough
for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time,
continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation
intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate
to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning
into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater
at times will be possible in the Winter Storm Watch area. As the
wave of low pressure pulls away, snow should end during the late
afternoon or evening hours, from southwest to northeast.

Regarding amounts, antecedent warm conditions and the warm ground
are certainly a consideration, and snow ratios will likely be well
below 10:1 at least at first. However, during the more intense
period of snow, the warm ground could easily be overwhelmed. A multi-
cycle model QPF blend and snow ratio blend yielded a swath of 4 to 6
inches of snow, locally a little higher, across our southern zones.
There is likely to be a sharp cutoff to the north due to very dry
air invading along with the cold. The cutoff to the north will
probably be sharper than currently forecast. Should the northern
trend continue even more, it`s even possible mixing with rain could
become a factor across the south, and that the higher snow amounts
could shift further north.

Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system
due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the
initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch
could also be in play for significant snow, even approaching metro
Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be
considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is
correct. But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the
way in that direction at once; the current forecast already
constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor
the forecast today."

I suppose some of that last talk would have a big impact on CNJ and NYC if it were to happen.

Enjoy this snowman! You are in a good spot and don't see less than 6 inches along NJ coast from Pt Pleasant south. The only limiting factor is it's a fast mover and there will be struggle to accumulate until the surface temps crash and the intensity picks up, but regardless you are still in line for significant snow. My guess Barnegat area could be 6-9". Probably will look like a blizzard for a time as the wind picks up due to deepening LP. I'm tempted to visit the in-laws tonight who live down there.

09Z srefs as snow88 pointed out there is yet another bump NW. Pushes the 6" line deep into NYC now. Sroc rejoice, LOL.

Thanks heehaw. I'm about 15-20 miles north of Barnegat. It looks like (knock on wood) Ocean County can count on about 6" and it might get more.

And I'm telling you all, that this setting up EXACTLY like Jan 7, 2017 where the precip shield exploded NW on game day and as I recall folks as far north as JMAN cashed in for several unexpected inches. If that low sets up off the coast and strengthens, I think that could possibly expand the precip shield, enhance the precip rates AND slow the storm a bit. All 3 of these things happened 1/7/17 in a very similar set up.

So, keep the faith and keep tracking! Still not over yet!

Snowman
What a 24hr change. Unbelievable. My concern will the temps crash fast enough to get that quick changeover along the coast where we live.

Slowly she turns.... n & w. Hope we see some more movement N & W for us in NNJ, but happy for CNJ and SNJ peeps on the board, you've been shut out so often!

Nam is awful until you get to SNJ

Nam was a little south.

I’m going to appoint heehaw to start a storm thread

Northern stream was so close to phasing in on the Nam

We talking hours it missed phasing? Still has time to correct itself?

Yeah that NAM run was unsettling.

CP said it- when you have 1” on the ground, a full sky and a full radar, THEN you have a snowstorm. Until then, it’s conjecture.

So, time for me to celebrate less and track some more I guess.

We are almost there peeps. 12Z runs will be telling. Need the jet streak and confluence over Maine to lift more N and the storm tension up a few hours so that N energy can dive in more and help it go BOOM. Gonna be close.

amugs wrote:Happy New Year Fam and let's get this party started right!

Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!

From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps

Bump baby!!

Please move January 3 storm conversation --> https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1079-january-3-potential-coastal-snowstorm#168621

The 1/7 threat still on the table.  The baroclinic zone between the GFS/Euro.  Split the difference and it'll be a nice storm.  It really comes down to how much the 500mb trough digs yet again.  If it doesn't dig much then it'll be like Euro and this will be a NE threat, if it digs just a bit more then much better for us.  Very large differences now.

18Z EPS.  The signal is there Thursday night/Friday on the EPS.  This is baroclinic zone close to coast.

Both major model ensembles have the signal for a significant storm on Thursday night/Friday at D3+. EPS is tucked and GFS is more towards BM track. Based on the h5 consistency it's becoming more likely this occurs. The who gets what is dependent on the western ridge as well as the baroclinic zone. Kind of nice to be tracking this setup. We shall see...

heehaw453 wrote:Both major model ensembles have the signal for a significant storm on Thursday night/Friday at D3+.  EPS is tucked and GFS is more towards BM track.  Based on the h5 consistency it's becoming more likely this occurs.  The who gets what is dependent on the western ridge as well as the baroclinic zone.  Kind of nice to be tracking this setup.  We shall see...

I havent had more than a brief look into this one yet but Miller B type set up which can be tricky. Always a screw zone of subsidence

EPS - good signal but we have to watch this for development region. Subsidence is always a PITA with these set ups ala 2014!

GEFS from 6Z too

amugs wrote:GEFS from 6Z too

Yeah, I can see that’s gonna suck me right back in…bring it on!

This is a classic Nina storm look. NW of 95 loos to be a good spot for heaviest axis as of now! Long ways to go. Need this storm to get up n out and we'll see.

12Z Euro moisture fetch.
Lots to figure out with the 1/7 threat.  But your bigger snow storms tend to have negatively tilted troughs, moisture fetch from the Atlantic and ample supply of cold air.  This has the makings of all three.  At the very least confidence is growing for at least a moderate event that affects more of the area.  Note the classic comma head which is indicative of your bigger storms.  We shall see...

Limiting factor here is the progression of the storm.  IT's kind of fast.