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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:34 am

Over 6 inches for LGA and 9 inches for central Jersey on the SREF. Close to 7 inches for JFK.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:38 am

Ok, so maybe premature on the thread talk until more of this forum area is in a real high impact zone.

BUT, for our southern friends (Monmouth County south) the latest Mt Holly discussion is very enticing:

"Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures
will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing
across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in
during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the
southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough
for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time,
continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation
intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate
to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning
into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater
at times will be possible
in the Winter Storm Watch area. As the
wave of low pressure pulls away, snow should end during the late
afternoon or evening hours
, from southwest to northeast.

Regarding amounts, antecedent warm conditions and the warm ground
are certainly a consideration, and snow ratios will likely be well
below 10:1 at least at first. However, during the more intense
period of snow, the warm ground could easily be overwhelmed. A multi-
cycle model QPF blend and snow ratio blend yielded a swath of 4 to 6
inches of snow, locally a little higher, across our southern zones.

There is likely to be a sharp cutoff to the north due to very dry
air invading along with the cold. The cutoff to the north will
probably be sharper than currently forecast. Should the northern
trend continue even more, it`s even possible mixing with rain could
become a factor across the south, and that the higher snow amounts
could shift further north.


Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system
due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the
initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch
could also be in play for significant snow
, even approaching metro
Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be
considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is
correct
.
But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the
way in that direction at once; the current forecast already
constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor
the forecast today."

I suppose some of that last talk would have a big impact on CNJ and NYC if it were to happen.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:49 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Ok, so maybe premature on the thread talk until more of this forum area is in a real high impact zone.

BUT, for our southern friends (Monmouth County south) the latest Mt Holly discussion is very enticing:

"Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures
will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing
across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in
during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the
southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough
for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time,
continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation
intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate
to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning
into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater
at times will be possible
in the Winter Storm Watch area. As the
wave of low pressure pulls away, snow should end during the late
afternoon or evening hours
, from southwest to northeast.

Regarding amounts, antecedent warm conditions and the warm ground
are certainly a consideration, and snow ratios will likely be well
below 10:1 at least at first. However, during the more intense
period of snow, the warm ground could easily be overwhelmed. A multi-
cycle model QPF blend and snow ratio blend yielded a swath of 4 to 6
inches of snow, locally a little higher, across our southern zones.

There is likely to be a sharp cutoff to the north due to very dry
air invading along with the cold. The cutoff to the north will
probably be sharper than currently forecast. Should the northern
trend continue even more, it`s even possible mixing with rain could
become a factor across the south, and that the higher snow amounts
could shift further north.


Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system
due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the
initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch
could also be in play for significant snow
, even approaching metro
Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be
considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is
correct
.
But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the
way in that direction at once; the current forecast already
constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor
the forecast today."

I suppose some of that last talk would have a big impact on CNJ and NYC if it were to happen.

Enjoy this snowman! You are in a good spot and don't see less than 6 inches along NJ coast from Pt Pleasant south. The only limiting factor is it's a fast mover and there will be struggle to accumulate until the surface temps crash and the intensity picks up, but regardless you are still in line for significant snow. My guess Barnegat area could be 6-9". Probably will look like a blizzard for a time as the wind picks up due to deepening LP. I'm tempted to visit the in-laws tonight who live down there.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:55 am

09Z srefs as snow88 pointed out there is yet another bump NW. Pushes the 6" line deep into NYC now. Sroc rejoice, LOL.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Srefs11

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:00 am

Thanks heehaw. I'm about 15-20 miles north of Barnegat. It looks like (knock on wood) Ocean County can count on about 6" and it might get more.

And I'm telling you all, that this setting up EXACTLY like Jan 7, 2017 where the precip shield exploded NW on game day and as I recall folks as far north as JMAN cashed in for several unexpected inches. If that low sets up off the coast and strengthens, I think that could possibly expand the precip shield, enhance the precip rates AND slow the storm a bit. All 3 of these things happened 1/7/17 in a very similar set up.

So, keep the faith and keep tracking! Still not over yet!

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Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:04 am

Snowman
What a 24hr change. Unbelievable. My concern will the temps crash fast enough to get that quick changeover along the coast where we live.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:06 am

Slowly she turns.... n & w. Hope we see some more movement N & W for us in NNJ, but happy for CNJ and SNJ peeps on the board, you've been shut out so often!

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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:10 am

Nam is awful until you get to SNJ
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Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:15 am

Nam was a little south.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:18 am

I’m going to appoint heehaw to start a storm thread Smile

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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:24 am

Northern stream was so close to phasing in on the Nam

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:26 am

We talking hours it missed phasing? Still has time to correct itself?

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:31 am

Yeah that NAM run was unsettling.

CP said it- when you have 1” on the ground, a full sky and a full radar, THEN you have a snowstorm. Until then, it’s conjecture.

So, time for me to celebrate less and track some more I guess.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:54 am

We are almost there peeps. 12Z runs will be telling. Need the jet streak and confluence over Maine to lift more N and the storm tension up a few hours so that N energy can dive in more and help it go BOOM. Gonna be close.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:54 am

amugs wrote:Happy New Year Fam and let's get this party started right!

Monday has a shot, albeit not much but it's still on the table. Need this piece of Energy over NE called confluence to relax more and the Northern energy over the Great Lake's to speed up a tad and catch the Main stream over VA Caoes region or Delmarva and we can have a moderate event for the NYC region and especially CNJ/Coastal NJ and LI.
Right now SNJ - say about Brick/Pt. PT Pleasantleasant looks to be in a good spot for Mondays storm and extended holiday vacay for the kids!!!

From 33 n Rain ShowMe - Great visual maps

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 MSE.gif.719903aa19d214088c77fcffe4b6f2b2

Bump baby!!

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:08 am


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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:20 pm

The 1/7 threat still on the table.  The baroclinic zone between the GFS/Euro.  Split the difference and it'll be a nice storm.  It really comes down to how much the 500mb trough digs yet again.  If it doesn't dig much then it'll be like Euro and this will be a NE threat, if it digs just a bit more then much better for us.  Very large differences now.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Euroba10
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_ba10

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:03 pm

18Z EPS.  The signal is there Thursday night/Friday on the EPS.  This is baroclinic zone close to coast.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Eps_si10

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:27 am

Both major model ensembles have the signal for a significant storm on Thursday night/Friday at D3+. EPS is tucked and GFS is more towards BM track. Based on the h5 consistency it's becoming more likely this occurs. The who gets what is dependent on the western ridge as well as the baroclinic zone. Kind of nice to be tracking this setup. We shall see...

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:45 am

heehaw453 wrote:Both major model ensembles have the signal for a significant storm on Thursday night/Friday at D3+.  EPS is tucked and GFS is more towards BM track.  Based on the h5 consistency it's becoming more likely this occurs.  The who gets what is dependent on the western ridge as well as the baroclinic zone.  Kind of nice to be tracking this setup.  We shall see...

I havent had more than a brief look into this one yet but Miller B type set up which can be tricky. Always a screw zone of subsidence

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:56 am

EPS - good signal but we have to watch this for development region. Subsidence is always a PITA with these set ups ala 2014!

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 FILtjCRXoAQu2iy?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:15 am

GEFS from 6Z too

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18.png.915ec5eb0eaec423c072c9d2b59529fe

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:18 am

amugs wrote:GEFS from 6Z too

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_18.png.915ec5eb0eaec423c072c9d2b59529fe

Yeah, I can see that’s gonna suck me right back in…bring it on!

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:33 pm

This is a classic Nina storm look. NW of 95 loos to be a good spot for heaviest axis as of now! Long ways to go. Need this storm to get up n out and we'll see.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 FIMImF0XwAIQ0XZ?format=jpg&name=medium

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 FIMQzCYX0AMGLaJ?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:27 pm

12Z Euro moisture fetch.
Lots to figure out with the 1/7 threat.  But your bigger snow storms tend to have negatively tilted troughs, moisture fetch from the Atlantic and ample supply of cold air.  This has the makings of all three.  At the very least confidence is growing for at least a moderate event that affects more of the area.  Note the classic comma head which is indicative of your bigger storms.  We shall see...

Limiting factor here is the progression of the storm.  IT's kind of fast.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Euromo11

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