January 2022 Obs & Discussions

This is a classic Nina storm look. NW of 95 loos to be a good spot for heaviest axis as of now! Long ways to go. Need this storm to get up n out and we'll see.

12Z Euro moisture fetch.
Lots to figure out with the 1/7 threat.  But your bigger snow storms tend to have negatively tilted troughs, moisture fetch from the Atlantic and ample supply of cold air.  This has the makings of all three.  At the very least confidence is growing for at least a moderate event that affects more of the area.  Note the classic comma head which is indicative of your bigger storms.  We shall see...

Limiting factor here is the progression of the storm.  IT's kind of fast.

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro moisture fetch.
Lots to figure out with the 1/7 threat.  But your bigger snow storms tend to have negatively tilted troughs, moisture fetch from the Atlantic and ample supply of cold air.  This has the makings of all three.  At the very least confidence is growing for at least a moderate event that affects more of the area.  Note the classic comma head which is indicative of your bigger storms.  We shall see...

Limiting factor here is the progression of the storm.  IT's kind of fast.

Yeah there is no real 50/50 low or -NAO so progressive for sure.  That fact will likely keep this from becoming a 18+ incher.  But like you said a solid CCB band sets up as currently modeled.  But like today we are going to have to keep on eye on the strength, and timing of the energy off the WC as the 1/7 trough approaches.  How will it affect the ridge in the west.  Will it flatten the ridge as the trough is approaches or can we hold on just a little longer this time and allow more consolidation of energy at the base of the trough, and get more of a neg tilt?  Fun times  

Agree. This is a look at 500 and highlights the risk of what looked like maybe a solid transient western ridge spike in the previous frame turns into a less impressive version. Frank mentioned something similar with this current storm threat. And along with Sroc’s comments - the risk here currently looks to me to be similar to today (a miss to the south and East) - though I do think there is room for a more area wide minor to moderate event. Just something to keep an eye on.

MattyICE wrote:Agree. This is a look at 500 and highlights the risk of what looked like maybe a solid transient western ridge spike in the previous frame turns into a less impressive version. Frank mentioned something similar with this current storm threat. And along with Sroc’s comments - the risk here currently looks to me to be similar to today (a miss to the south and East) - though I do think there is room for a more area wide minor to moderate event. Just something to keep an eye on.

Yep. All that is possible. There is however very good ensemble agreement at D3+ across all the major models on the general idea of the evolution. But yeah I've seen good agreement go down the toilet in one run. You are right to be cautious.

Need this as far south as possible as a Miller B. Gives it more time to mature

Trends were not good today from operationals for 6/7th. They seemed to have backed off on intensity. Hopefully we get at least a light snowfall as opposed to nothing which is still on the table.

hyde345 wrote:Trends were not good today from operationals for 6/7th. They seemed to have backed off on intensity. Hopefully we get at least a light snowfall as opposed to nothing which is still on the table.

This could certainly be a nothing burger if the short wave rounding the base of the trough is garbage. This is not going to have a moist GOM component to it. It will be Atlantic driven and depends on the s/w developing quickly.

hyde345 wrote:Trends were not good today from operationals for 6/7th. They seemed to have backed off on intensity. Hopefully we get at least a light snowfall as opposed to nothing which is still on the table.

Time will tell, we have to get this storm over out of the way and then models can focus on Thursday night/ Fridays.
Euro 12z and CMC were good. GFS OTS.
These ens are good as well so far.

The 18Z GFS pushes the 1/7 storm OTS.  I don't mind where it is right now at D3+.  It has the general idea of the ULL and the s/w looks ok to me.  The issue is the trough is being pushed out a bit too far off the coast and driving the baroclinic zone with it.  It doesn't give the mid-level storm room to move up.  The storm must have that space to come up. This look is no bueno.

18z euro

GEFS show the vortex digging more over TN region and if it can more before and deeper than the prospects of a bigger storm abound. Flowers fast for sure. Need as much moisture as it can wrap in and deepen.. We need that ridge out west to hold and there is energy coming in but it doesn't look to be strong.  Crazy how the day prior the PNA spikes. Let's play if it held we'd have a heck of a storm potential.  That's going to come during Rb and my timeframe!!! This is workable.

#2 please

amugs wrote:#2 please

#2 for me please

weatherwatchermom wrote:50 bucks on # 2 please( I never bet so is that a fair wager?) Brrr cold come on we finally have the cold we need the moisture currently 28* real feel 19*

Mom next week IF we lay down some white gold will be FRIGID!! Coldest since the great arctic outbreak since Feb 2016 when Central.park hit 0 as currently forecasted.
Talking 25 plus degrees BN.
If we have say 4-6" of snow OTG, clear skies and a calm winds then we can go sub zero.

LR NAM looks good. Slightly better WAR, PNA and vortex digging, deeper as it exits of OC. Prime spot. From there where does it go is the question? NE, E, ENE, NNE??

Gfs folded and now shows a snowstorm

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:50 bucks on # 2 please( I never bet so is that a fair wager?) Brrr cold come on we finally have the cold we need the moisture currently 28* real feel 19*

Mom next week IF we lay down some white gold will be FRIGID!! Coldest since the great arctic outbreak since Feb 2016 when Central.park hit 0 as currently forecasted.
Talking 25 plus degrees BN.  
If we have say 4-6" of snow OTG, clear skies and a calm winds then we can go sub zero.  

Actually Central Park hit -1 in that 2016 outbreak. Very tough for the UHI to break below 0. So many factors working against it.

My forecast for next Tuesday 1/11 shows me with a high temp for the day of… 23 degrees! Brrrrr….

15* currently nice crisp morning wind is light

GEFS overnight with the shift......

big jump on the Gefs as expected with the operational moving NW- tight cluster in a perfect area for an I95 Snowstorm pic.twitter.com/wwWZbQGexG

— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) January 4, 2022

docstox12 wrote:15 degrees and clear.
Love the cold weather projections, perfect for my natural gas long trade,lol.The ETF symbol is BOIL.People who make these symbols up have a sense of humor.
NWS now removed snow from tonight and tomorrw, mostly light FR.Snow chance still there Thurs PM-Fri AM, 1 to 2 inches.

That will change after this run withb60 hours till game time GEFS showing cranker off NJ coast which bodes well for NNJ and HV and Conn, LI peeps.
Speaking off crackers I see CP has awoken!!

From NonSleepTillBrokklyn at 33 Rain wx

The ridge out west is better and holds thus allowing the vortex to dig more and consolidate which means it gets stronger. This we have a better outcome.

EURO EPS

19 degrees right now in Brooklyn

Coldest temperature so far this winter. An arctic blast on the models next week. Combine that with possible snowcover. Maybe single digits?