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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:47 pm

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro moisture fetch.
Lots to figure out with the 1/7 threat.  But your bigger snow storms tend to have negatively tilted troughs, moisture fetch from the Atlantic and ample supply of cold air.  This has the makings of all three.  At the very least confidence is growing for at least a moderate event that affects more of the area.  Note the classic comma head which is indicative of your bigger storms.  We shall see...

Limiting factor here is the progression of the storm.  IT's kind of fast.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Euromo11


Yeah there is no real 50/50 low or -NAO so progressive for sure.  That fact will likely keep this from becoming a 18+ incher.  But like you said a solid CCB band sets up as currently modeled.  But like today we are going to have to keep on eye on the strength, and timing of the energy off the WC as the 1/7 trough approaches.  How will it affect the ridge in the west.  Will it flatten the ridge as the trough is approaches or can we hold on just a little longer this time and allow more consolidation of energy at the base of the trough, and get more of a neg tilt?  Fun times  

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Ecmwf-87

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by MattyICE Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:01 pm

Agree. This is a look at 500 and highlights the risk of what looked like maybe a solid transient western ridge spike in the previous frame turns into a less impressive version. Frank mentioned something similar with this current storm threat. And along with Sroc’s comments - the risk here currently looks to me to be similar to today (a miss to the south and East) - though I do think there is room for a more area wide minor to moderate event. Just something to keep an eye on.
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1d0d6c10

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:11 pm

MattyICE wrote:Agree. This is a look at 500 and highlights the risk of what looked like maybe a solid transient western ridge spike in the previous frame turns into a less impressive version. Frank mentioned something similar with this current storm threat. And along with Sroc’s comments - the risk here currently looks to me to be similar to today (a miss to the south and East) - though I do think there is room for a more area wide minor to moderate event. Just something to keep an eye on.
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1d0d6c10

Yep. All that is possible. There is however very good ensemble agreement at D3+ across all the major models on the general idea of the evolution. But yeah I've seen good agreement go down the toilet in one run. You are right to be cautious.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:38 pm

Need this as far south as possible as a Miller B. Gives it more time to mature

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 1.png.bd826bec48909e951a3cc0e019674e2e

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 2.png.a25aa85c254fc46d3c6c5fc3c5783155

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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:01 pm

Trends were not good today from operationals for 6/7th. They seemed to have backed off on intensity. Hopefully we get at least a light snowfall as opposed to nothing which is still on the table.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:22 pm

hyde345 wrote:Trends were not good today from operationals for 6/7th. They seemed to have backed off on intensity. Hopefully we get at least a light snowfall as opposed to nothing which is still on the table.

This could certainly be a nothing burger if the short wave rounding the base of the trough is garbage. This is not going to have a moist GOM component to it. It will be Atlantic driven and depends on the s/w developing quickly.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:42 pm

hyde345 wrote:Trends were not good today from operationals for 6/7th. They seemed to have backed off on intensity. Hopefully we get at least a light snowfall as opposed to nothing which is still on the table.

Time will tell, we have to get this storm over out of the way and then models can focus on Thursday night/ Fridays.
Euro 12z and CMC were good. GFS OTS.
These ens are good as well so far.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:56 pm

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Finkok10

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:19 pm

The 18Z GFS pushes the 1/7 storm OTS.  I don't mind where it is right now at D3+.  It has the general idea of the ULL and the s/w looks ok to me.  The issue is the trough is being pushed out a bit too far off the coast and driving the baroclinic zone with it.  It doesn't give the mid-level storm room to move up.  The storm must have that space to come up. This look is no bueno.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfsop10

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:30 pm

18z euro
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 3bc92d10
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:51 pm

GEFS show the vortex digging more over TN region and if it can more before and deeper than the prospects of a bigger storm abound. Flowers fast for sure. Need as much moisture as it can wrap in and deepen.. We need that ridge out west to hold and there is energy coming in but it doesn't look to be strong.  Crazy how the day prior the PNA spikes. Let's play if it held we'd have a heck of a storm potential.  That's going to come during Rb and my timeframe!!! This is workable.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs-en14
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs-en15

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:18 pm

#2 please
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Fin-vf10

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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:30 pm

amugs wrote:#2 please
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Fin-vf10
#2 for me please 🙏🙏

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:38 pm

50 bucks on # 2 please( I never bet so is that a fair wager?) Brrr cold come on we finally have the cold we need the moisture currently 28* real feel 19*
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:47 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:50 bucks on # 2 please( I never bet so is that a fair wager?) Brrr cold come on we finally have the cold we need the moisture currently 28* real feel 19*

Mom next week IF we lay down some white gold will be FRIGID!! Coldest since the great arctic outbreak since Feb 2016 when Central.park hit 0 as currently forecasted.
Talking 25 plus degrees BN.
If we have say 4-6" of snow OTG, clear skies and a calm winds then we can go sub zero.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:50 pm

LR NAM looks good. Slightly better WAR, PNA and vortex digging, deeper as it exits of OC. Prime spot. From there where does it go is the question? NE, E, ENE, NNE??

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 4A067C23-884F-4076-959C-A0BE8EF9DE3F.png.dcd16459f312691dacef244090c3a60c

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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:07 pm

Gfs folded and now shows a snowstorm
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:19 pm

amugs wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:50 bucks on # 2 please( I never bet so is that a fair wager?) Brrr cold come on we finally have the cold we need the moisture currently 28* real feel 19*

Mom next week IF we lay down some white gold will be FRIGID!! Coldest since the great arctic outbreak since Feb 2016 when Central.park hit 0 as currently forecasted.
Talking 25 plus degrees BN.  
If we have say 4-6" of snow OTG, clear skies and a calm winds then we can go sub zero.  

Actually Central Park hit -1 in that 2016 outbreak. Very tough for the UHI to break below 0. So many factors working against it.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:10 am

My forecast for next Tuesday 1/11 shows me with a high temp for the day of… 23 degrees! Brrrrr….

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Post by Radz Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:00 am

15* currently nice crisp morning wind is light
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Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:22 am

15 degrees and clear.
Love the cold weather projections, perfect for my natural gas long trade,lol.The ETF symbol is BOIL.People who make these symbols up have a sense of humor.
NWS now removed snow from tonight and tomorrw, mostly light FR.Snow chance still there Thurs PM-Fri AM, 1 to 2 inches.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:30 am

GEFS overnight with the shift......


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Post by amugs Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:33 am

docstox12 wrote:15 degrees and clear.
Love the cold weather projections, perfect for my natural gas long trade,lol.The ETF symbol is BOIL.People who make these symbols up have a sense of humor.
NWS now removed snow from tonight and tomorrw, mostly light FR.Snow chance still there Thurs PM-Fri AM, 1 to 2 inches.


That will change after this run withb60 hours till game time GEFS showing cranker off NJ coast which bodes well for NNJ and HV and Conn, LI peeps.
Speaking off crackers I see CP has awoken!!
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 25B98FBD-81C4-4529-B598-32289F0E92D4.png.7cc4e8220e906297297df76e2fdea72f

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:39 am

From NonSleepTillBrokklyn at 33 Rain wx

The ridge out west is better and holds thus allowing the vortex to dig more and consolidate which means it gets stronger. This we have a better outcome.

EURO EPS

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 5 BAE4F38F-EA58-495E-9AD6-98B0AF68C452.gif.1ed84de1455d1fa441d001f98a51234c


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Snow88 Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:41 am

19 degrees right now in Brooklyn

Coldest temperature so far this winter. An arctic blast on the models next week. Combine that with possible snowcover. Maybe single digits?
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