Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.

That's a great point and Frank did note that out days ago. The western ridge takes a beating these past several years causing progressive flows.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:26 am

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

I do. I still think 1-3 is possible N to S east of Rte 83 or perhaps William floyd. But it will come later

by **phil155** Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:34 am

the township salted the roads by me in edison but I have not seen a flake. Congrats to the folks in SNJ, enjoy

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:40 am

Same here in NYC so much salt in the ground but not even a flake

by **phil155** Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:51 am

I was hoping to see at least some mood flakes out of this but I guess it is not in the cards for this storm

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:00 am

You can see the frontogenesis chasing the baroclinic zone (purple lines off NJ coast). The batch to the west is what may give the I-95 1-2", but I'm skeptical as the air is really dry.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Fronto11

by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:11 am

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2017

Barnegat,NJ. White Gold.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:14 am

Right on Larry. I’m up in Toms River where it’s starting to pick up a little, I’m hoping when I get back to Bayville (5 miles south of Toms River) it looks more like Barnegat. Lol

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:14 am

larryrock72 wrote: Barnegat,NJ. White Gold.

Beautiful! How much on the ground? I see the AC and LBI web cams and it's looking really nice.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:17 am

Getting blitzed in SNJ! Wow!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 5A9CC342-B5E6-4CAA-83BE-6858232FE989.png.db3050494619b03112435d3f859b212e

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 5A9CC342-B5E6-4CAA-83BE-6858232FE989.png.db3050494619b03112435d3f859b212e

by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:35 am

heehaw453 wrote:
larryrock72 wrote: Barnegat,NJ. White Gold.

Beautiful! How much on the ground? I see the AC and LBI web cams and it's looking really nice.

. I would say 3-4 so far. Plow just came by. Should snow until 3:00 or 4:00 today.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:56 am

heehaw453 wrote:You can see the frontogenesis chasing the baroclinic zone (purple lines off NJ coast). The batch to the west is what may give the I-95 1-2", but I'm skeptical as the air is really dry.

I think 700mb is telegraphing where the snow will make it.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 700mb_sf

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:58 am

The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low. If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb_sf

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb_sf

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:00 am

sroc4 wrote:The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low. If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb11

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:01 am

The 12Z NAM is nailing the reality of the dry 700mb air and understanding it's tough to snow on I-95 because of it. GFS still wants to lay snow down to the surface. Rolling Eyes

NAM does clip eastern LI with several inches FWIW and I can believe that as the storm exits because you have moisture transport setup there.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Nam70010

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:01 am

Snow has picked up considerably in Toms River…heading south back to Bayville/Berkeley now. Let’s see…

by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:02 am

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2019

. One more photo

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:07 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low. If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

Agreed it's going to clip eastern LI Rhode Island and SE MA.

by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:19 am

. One more photo

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:36 am

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low. If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

Agreed it's going to clip eastern LI Rhode Island and SE MA.

I still think NYC is still in the game for an inch or so

by **amugs** Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:20 pm

Heavy, wind driven snow (near blizzard-like conditions) on the north side of Atlantic City, NJ! @NorEasterNick @ACPressMartucci @NWS_MountHolly @HurricaneNBC10 @CecilyTynan pic.twitter.com/R3ht1TTo9x
— Robert Bennett (@stormchaser0026) January 3, 2022

Awesome!

by **amugs** Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:34 pm

More to add to teh totals !!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 991313954_Screenshot(1).png.01885e8771bc90e062b9e2e8840ed5a9

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:52 pm

amugs wrote:More to add to teh totals !!!

Boom! I’ve been waiting YEARS to be in one of them squiggly circles again!!

So after a VERY slow start to the day, we have 3” otg, a full sky of moderate to heavy snow and a full radar for hopefully several more hours.

Haven’t dropped a 6 spot on the ground since the insane late March blizzard in 2018. Is today the day?

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:55 pm

Snowfall just got heavier…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 0725c210

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 C1ab6c10

by **phil155** Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:02 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:More to add to teh totals !!!

Boom! I’ve been waiting YEARS to be in one of them squiggly circles again!!

So after a VERY slow start to the day, we have 3” otg, a full sky of moderate to heavy snow and a full radar for hopefully several more hours.

Haven’t dropped a 6 spot on the ground since the insane late March blizzard in 2018. Is today the day?

I am not far from the circled area and have not seen a flake in edison, very serious cutoff

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:14 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Snowfall just got heavier…

Go get yours!!!!

by **phil155** Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:32 pm

Finally have a few flakes

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