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January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Pmsl

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 500mb_sf

That's a great point and Frank did note that out days ago. The western ridge takes a beating these past several years causing progressive flows.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:26 am

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

I do. I still think 1-3 is possible N to S east of Rte 83 or perhaps William floyd. But it will come later

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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:34 am

the township salted the roads by me in edison but I have not seen a flake. Congrats to the folks in SNJ, enjoy

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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:40 am

Same here in NYC so much salt in the ground but not even a flake

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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:51 am

I was hoping to see at least some mood flakes out of this but I guess it is not in the cards for this storm

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:00 am

You can see the frontogenesis chasing the baroclinic zone (purple lines off NJ coast).  The batch to the west is what may give the I-95 1-2", but I'm skeptical as the air is really dry.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Fronto11

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Post by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:11 am

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2017 Barnegat,NJ. White Gold.

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:14 am

Right on Larry. I’m up in Toms River where it’s starting to pick up a little, I’m hoping when I get back to Bayville (5 miles south of Toms River) it looks more like Barnegat. Lol

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:14 am

larryrock72 wrote:January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2017     Barnegat,NJ.  White Gold.

Beautiful! How much on the ground? I see the AC and LBI web cams and it's looking really nice.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:17 am

Getting blitzed in SNJ! Wow!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 5A9CC342-B5E6-4CAA-83BE-6858232FE989.png.db3050494619b03112435d3f859b212e

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Post by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:35 am

heehaw453 wrote:
larryrock72 wrote:January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2017     Barnegat,NJ.  White Gold.

Beautiful!  How much on the ground?  I see the AC and LBI web cams and it's looking really nice.
. I would say 3-4 so far. Plow just came by. Should snow until 3:00 or 4:00 today.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:56 am

heehaw453 wrote:You can see the frontogenesis chasing the baroclinic zone (purple lines off NJ coast).  The batch to the west is what may give the I-95 1-2", but I'm skeptical as the air is really dry.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Fronto11

I think 700mb is telegraphing where the snow will make it.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 700mb_sf

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:58 am

The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low. If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb_sf

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:00 am

sroc4 wrote:The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low.  If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb_sf

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb11

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:01 am

The 12Z NAM is nailing the reality of the dry 700mb air and understanding it's tough to snow on I-95 because of it.  GFS still wants to lay snow down to the surface. Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes   NAM does clip eastern LI with several inches FWIW and I can believe that as the storm exits because you have moisture transport setup there.
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Nam70010

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:01 am

Snow has picked up considerably in Toms River…heading south back to Bayville/Berkeley now. Let’s see…

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Post by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:02 am

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2019. One more photo

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:07 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low.  If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb_sf

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb11

Agreed it's going to clip eastern LI Rhode Island and SE MA.

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Post by larryrock72 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:19 am

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 Img_2019. One more photo

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:36 am

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The angle of the height falls at 850 also may telegraph the movement of the 850mb low.  If that track takes place there is a good chance the snow makes it far enough north to reach the southern CT coast at least

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb_sf

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 850mb11

Agreed it's going to clip eastern LI Rhode Island and SE MA.

I still think NYC is still in the game for an inch or so

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:20 pm



Awesome!

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:34 pm

More to add to teh totals !!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 991313954_Screenshot(1).png.01885e8771bc90e062b9e2e8840ed5a9

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:52 pm

amugs wrote:More to add to teh totals !!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 991313954_Screenshot(1).png.01885e8771bc90e062b9e2e8840ed5a9

Boom! I’ve been waiting YEARS to be in one of them squiggly circles again!!

So after a VERY slow start to the day, we have 3” otg, a full sky of moderate to heavy snow and a full radar for hopefully several more hours.

Haven’t dropped a 6 spot on the ground since the insane late March blizzard in 2018. Is today the day?


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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:55 pm

Snowfall just got heavier…January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 0725c210
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 C1ab6c10

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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:02 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
amugs wrote:More to add to teh totals !!!

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 991313954_Screenshot(1).png.01885e8771bc90e062b9e2e8840ed5a9

Boom! I’ve been waiting YEARS to be in one of them squiggly circles again!!

So after a VERY slow start to the day, we have 3” otg, a full sky of moderate to heavy snow and a full radar for hopefully several more hours.

Haven’t dropped a 6 spot on the ground since the insane late March blizzard in 2018. Is today the day?

I am not far from the circled area and have not seen a flake in edison, very serious cutoff

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:14 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Snowfall just got heavier…January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 0725c210
January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 6 C1ab6c10

Go get yours!!!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by phil155 Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:32 pm

Finally have a few flakes 😀

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