January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
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CPcantmeasuresnow
larryrock72
freezerburn
rb924119
snowday111
docstox12
MattyICE
phil155
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
emokid51783
dsix85
billg315
sroc4
jmanley32
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
algae888
aiannone
amugs
frank 638
heehaw453
26 posters
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
. East of 9. 1/2 mile from the bay.SENJsnowman wrote:larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.
Larry, are you east or west of 9? I think I ask you this every year...lol. I'm basically a stone's throw from 9, on the east side, about 1.5 miles from the water...should be interesting.
And it seems the sr models want to play ball again:
00z HRRR:
My theory all along has been to have the heavy precip boundary make it up my backyard, and THEN watch the last second dynamics unfold for a potentially major push N and W of the low and the precip shield...That's pretty much back on the table now imo...
larryrock72- Posts : 136
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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SENJsnowman- Posts : 996
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Winds definitely picking up gust around 20 temp currently 34*..can't sleep
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Hey hope you are feeling better and happy new year..we are by the hook...so hoping to get some snow..winds are starting to pick up
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi, mom! Unfortunately, I can’t really provide any opinion on this event as I’ve not put any time into analyzing it. I’m sorry

rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Please no worries... Happy New Year!rb924119 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi, mom! Unfortunately, I can’t really provide any opinion on this event as I’ve not put any time into analyzing it. I’m sorry
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Thanks, mom, and same to you!! Glad that you’re feeling better SENJ!!
Plain rain here now lol wooo only thing worse than this is Cp’s favorite word - virga
Plain rain here now lol wooo only thing worse than this is Cp’s favorite word - virga

rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Will be happy with whatever we get!! Are we the only ones not sleeping?lol
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
I tried so hard to go back to sleep- not looking good at the moment. Lol
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
The moisture transport tells the story of the heaviest snow with this. The snow growth zone at h7 is best from AC through Delmarva. So dry air will win out as the lift just isn't enough to overcome it. It was a bit more promising on earlier runs. I-95 will get something light is my guess including LI. Earlier runs were more promising on the transport.


heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Mom, I too am up with the larks reading posts. It is about time the SJ folks get a taste of snow. I am looking forward to all the upcoming action. It is 28 degrees and that's all it will get to. Finally cold enough for a good woodstove fire.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Looks and feels like snow, but alas, not a flake. Looking like the NAM had this one lined up. If you look at the projected radar for the next couple hours vs present you can see even the light snow not nearly as far north as progged. This is mostly a South Jersey Special.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking.

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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
WOW
Trees already coming down on powerlines in Gatlinburg, TN. Sounds of cracking trees around. Heavy wet snow will be causing some problems. @weatherchannel @NWSMorristown @JimCantore #TNwx pic.twitter.com/k8AK5iBBvK
— Charles Peek (@CharlesPeekWX) January 3, 2022
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
SENJsnowman wrote:Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking.
Snowman the column is saturated best right where you see the purple lines clustered in SE NJ say LBI area right to Millville NJ. That is where the most intense snowfall will be with this, but I think you'll do ok. The surface freezing line is pushing rapidly right to the beaches. The mid-level air is extremely dry as you get to the I-95, so I'd be surprised to see more than an 1-2" there.


heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet


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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
WOW - reminds of the winter of 78-79 when Wildwood got a phenomenal winter with 2 blizzards and crippled he whole SNJ region as we had Nada
A rare moment to see the beaches snow covered while the interior #NJ has green grass still showing. #njwx #njsnow https://t.co/8kw9DdVeoT
— NJ Weather News (@NJWxNews) January 3, 2022
Last edited by amugs on Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet
Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
sroc4 wrote:sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet
Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.
Yes we were pointing out the a slower storm evolution would be better for the NS energy to dive in and phase making the trough go towards Negative and lift more N trajectory. Also by slowing up it would allow the confluence over NE to subside and BUT that allowed that fast flow in the PAC to act as a kicker. 6 in one hand and a 1/2 dozen in the other. Hey it was fun tracking and congrats to our SNJ poster. Enjoy Nature's beauty and post pics please!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
sroc4 wrote:sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet
Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.
That's a great point and Frank did note that out days ago. The western ridge takes a beating these past several years causing progressive flows.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm
dsix85 wrote:Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?
I do. I still think 1-3 is possible N to S east of Rte 83 or perhaps William floyd. But it will come later
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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» January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat
» January 2nd-3rd Potential Snowstorm
» October 1st-3rd Potential Coastal
» February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95
» 02/26 Snowstorm Potential
» January 2nd-3rd Potential Snowstorm
» October 1st-3rd Potential Coastal
» February 25th 2022 potential snow/ice for mainly well NW of I95
» 02/26 Snowstorm Potential
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