NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

+22
CPcantmeasuresnow
larryrock72
freezerburn
rb924119
snowday111
docstox12
MattyICE
phil155
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
emokid51783
dsix85
billg315
sroc4
jmanley32
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
algae888
aiannone
amugs
frank 638
heehaw453
26 posters

Page 5 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:51 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:O skin in the game here, but very curious how the final outcome unfolds. Pretty extraordinary to see some of these towns down in our southern end go from 60 to a SEC storm in a matter of several hours.

I'm hoping for the best for everyone from NYC on south and east. Post pictures tomorrow those that cash in.
59* high for today currently 37* wild weather..today got to finish a project that we did not get to in the fall in short sleeves and tomorrow we might have snow

weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3880
Join date : 2014-11-25

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:37 pm

Gonna try to go to sleep. All of the 00z runs seem to bring 8'+ to my backyard, and more the further south you go. Still leaning towards better news for the middle sections of the forum and at least Eastern LI as the morning unfolds tomorrow, but we'll have to see.

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1197
Join date : 2017-01-06

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:48 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

Larry, are you east or west of 9? I think I ask you this every year...lol. I'm basically a stone's throw from 9, on the east side, about 1.5 miles from the water...should be interesting.

And it seems the sr models want to play ball again:

00z HRRR:

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 00z_hr10

My theory all along has been to have the heavy precip boundary make it up my backyard, and THEN watch the last second dynamics unfold for a potentially major push N and W of the low and the precip shield...That's pretty much back on the table now imo...
. East of 9. 1/2 mile from the bay.

larryrock72

Posts : 141
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2017-01-03
Age : 52
Location : Barnegat, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:18 am

Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

weatherwatchermom and SENJsnowman like this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:33 am

rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3880
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:57 am

Unfortunately from what I can see on the radar Mom, there is a pretty hard cutoff setting up at about I-195 on North.

My Holly feels like their forecast of 4-6” might bust low…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 D5719b10

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1197
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:58 am

Winds definitely picking up gust around 20 temp currently 34*..can't sleep
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3880
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:00 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Unfortunately from what I can see on the radar Mom, there is a pretty hard cutoff setting up at about I-195 on North.

My Holly feels like their forecast of 4-6” might bust low…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 D5719b10
Hey hope you are feeling better and happy new year..we are by the hook...so hoping to get some snow..winds are starting to pick up
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3880
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:04 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?

Hi, mom! Unfortunately, I can’t really provide any opinion on this event as I’ve not put any time into analyzing it. I’m sorry Sad

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:07 am

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?

Hi, mom! Unfortunately, I can’t really provide any opinion on this event as I’ve not put any time into analyzing it. I’m sorry Sad
Please no worries... Happy New Year!
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3880
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:08 am

Thank you…feeling MUCH better since Saturday. My Holly says keep hope alive for the Hook! They just released a special 4 am advisory where they get very bullish on the totals for us down south and they show lots of potential for the 95 corridor…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 5f8d0910

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1197
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:10 am

Thanks, mom, and same to you!! Glad that you’re feeling better SENJ!!

Plain rain here now lol wooo only thing worse than this is Cp’s favorite word - virga lol!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:23 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Thank you…feeling MUCH better since Saturday. My Holly says keep hope alive for the Hook! They just released a special 4 am advisory where they get very bullish on the totals for us down south and they show lots of potential for the 95 corridor…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 5f8d0910
Will be happy with whatever we get!! Are we the only ones not sleeping?lol
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3880
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:26 am

I tried so hard to go back to sleep- not looking good at the moment. Lol

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1197
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:50 am

The moisture transport tells the story of the heaviest snow with this.  The snow growth zone at h7 is best from AC through Delmarva.  So dry air will win out as the lift just isn't enough to overcome it.  It was a bit more promising on earlier runs.  I-95 will get something light is my guess including LI.  Earlier runs were more promising on the transport.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Euromo10

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3910
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by dkodgis Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:04 am

Mom, I too am up with the larks reading posts. It is about time the SJ folks get a taste of snow. I am looking forward to all the upcoming action. It is 28 degrees and that's all it will get to. Finally cold enough for a good woodstove fire.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2669
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by billg315 Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:21 am

Looks and feels like snow, but alas, not a flake. Looking like the NAM had this one lined up. If you look at the projected radar for the next couple hours vs present you can see even the light snow not nearly as far north as progged. This is mostly a South Jersey Special.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4534
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:30 am

Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking. 🤷🏼‍�

SENJsnowman
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1197
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2017-01-06
Age : 51
Location : Long Branch, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:28 am

WOW

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:36 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking. 🤷🏼

Snowman the column is saturated best right where you see the purple lines clustered in SE NJ say LBI area right to Millville NJ.   That is where the most intense snowfall will be with this, but I think you'll do ok.  The surface freezing line is pushing rapidly right to the beaches.  The mid-level air is extremely dry as you get to the I-95, so I'd be surprised to see more than an 1-2" there.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 700mb10

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Surfac18

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3910
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:40 am

The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8445
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am

WOW - reminds of the winter of 78-79 when Wildwood got a phenomenal winter with 2 blizzards and crippled he whole SNJ region as we had Nada


Last edited by amugs on Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am

sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 500mb_sf

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8445
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by dsix85 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:50 am

Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

dsix85
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 349
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : New York

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:52 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 500mb_sf

Yes we were pointing out the a slower storm evolution would be better for the NS energy to dive in and phase making the trough go towards Negative and lift more N trajectory. Also by slowing up it would allow the confluence over NE to subside and BUT that allowed that fast flow in the PAC to act as a kicker. 6 in one hand and a 1/2 dozen in the other. Hey it was fun tracking and congrats to our SNJ poster. Enjoy Nature's beauty and post pics please!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 500mb_sf

That's a great point and Frank did note that out days ago. The western ridge takes a beating these past several years causing progressive flows.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3910
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:26 am

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

I do. I still think 1-3 is possible N to S east of Rte 83 or perhaps William floyd. But it will come later

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8445
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

dsix85 likes this post

Back to top Go down

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Empty Re: January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum