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January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

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CPcantmeasuresnow
larryrock72
freezerburn
rb924119
snowday111
docstox12
MattyICE
phil155
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
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Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:48 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
larryrock72 wrote:Rb,
If you are on the island you should get some blizzard like conditions between 8am-12pm( not technically a blizzard). 50mph wind gusts, not to shabby.

Larry, are you east or west of 9? I think I ask you this every year...lol. I'm basically a stone's throw from 9, on the east side, about 1.5 miles from the water...should be interesting.

And it seems the sr models want to play ball again:

00z HRRR:

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 00z_hr10

My theory all along has been to have the heavy precip boundary make it up my backyard, and THEN watch the last second dynamics unfold for a potentially major push N and W of the low and the precip shield...That's pretty much back on the table now imo...
. East of 9. 1/2 mile from the bay.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:18 am

Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:33 am

rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:57 am

Unfortunately from what I can see on the radar Mom, there is a pretty hard cutoff setting up at about I-195 on North.

My Holly feels like their forecast of 4-6” might bust low…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 D5719b10

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:58 am

Winds definitely picking up gust around 20 temp currently 34*..can't sleep
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:00 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Unfortunately from what I can see on the radar Mom, there is a pretty hard cutoff setting up at about I-195 on North.

My Holly feels like their forecast of 4-6” might bust low…

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 D5719b10
Hey hope you are feeling better and happy new year..we are by the hook...so hoping to get some snow..winds are starting to pick up
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:04 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?

Hi, mom! Unfortunately, I can’t really provide any opinion on this event as I’ve not put any time into analyzing it. I’m sorry Sad

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:07 am

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Light sleet/rain mix commenced about 45 minutes ago.
Hi any last min thoughts on how far north this makes it?

Hi, mom! Unfortunately, I can’t really provide any opinion on this event as I’ve not put any time into analyzing it. I’m sorry Sad
Please no worries... Happy New Year!
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:08 am

Thank you…feeling MUCH better since Saturday. My Holly says keep hope alive for the Hook! They just released a special 4 am advisory where they get very bullish on the totals for us down south and they show lots of potential for the 95 corridor…

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:10 am

Thanks, mom, and same to you!! Glad that you’re feeling better SENJ!!

Plain rain here now lol wooo only thing worse than this is Cp’s favorite word - virga lol!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:23 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Thank you…feeling MUCH better since Saturday. My Holly says keep hope alive for the Hook! They just released a special 4 am advisory where they get very bullish on the totals for us down south and they show lots of potential for the 95 corridor…

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Will be happy with whatever we get!! Are we the only ones not sleeping?lol
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:26 am

I tried so hard to go back to sleep- not looking good at the moment. Lol

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:50 am

The moisture transport tells the story of the heaviest snow with this.  The snow growth zone at h7 is best from AC through Delmarva.  So dry air will win out as the lift just isn't enough to overcome it.  It was a bit more promising on earlier runs.  I-95 will get something light is my guess including LI.  Earlier runs were more promising on the transport.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Euromo10

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Post by dkodgis Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:04 am

Mom, I too am up with the larks reading posts. It is about time the SJ folks get a taste of snow. I am looking forward to all the upcoming action. It is 28 degrees and that's all it will get to. Finally cold enough for a good woodstove fire.
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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:21 am

Looks and feels like snow, but alas, not a flake. Looking like the NAM had this one lined up. If you look at the projected radar for the next couple hours vs present you can see even the light snow not nearly as far north as progged. This is mostly a South Jersey Special.
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:30 am

Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking. 🤷🏼‍�

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:28 am

WOW

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:36 am

SENJsnowman wrote:Yeah, Bill, looks like heartache in Berkeley Township. Ray correctly saw the dual band of precip and most of ocean county is in the middle. Very few flakes and nothing close to sticking. 🤷🏼

Snowman the column is saturated best right where you see the purple lines clustered in SE NJ say LBI area right to Millville NJ.   That is where the most intense snowfall will be with this, but I think you'll do ok.  The surface freezing line is pushing rapidly right to the beaches.  The mid-level air is extremely dry as you get to the I-95, so I'd be surprised to see more than an 1-2" there.

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January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Surfac18

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:40 am

The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am

WOW - reminds of the winter of 78-79 when Wildwood got a phenomenal winter with 2 blizzards and crippled he whole SNJ region as we had Nada


Last edited by amugs on Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:45 am

sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

Also look out west. Once again the Pac strikes again. I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough. We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome. Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west. The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 500mb_sf

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by dsix85 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:50 am

Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:52 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 500mb_sf

Yes we were pointing out the a slower storm evolution would be better for the NS energy to dive in and phase making the trough go towards Negative and lift more N trajectory. Also by slowing up it would allow the confluence over NE to subside and BUT that allowed that fast flow in the PAC to act as a kicker. 6 in one hand and a 1/2 dozen in the other. Hey it was fun tracking and congrats to our SNJ poster. Enjoy Nature's beauty and post pics please!!

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:53 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:The MSLP hasnt even touched the coast yet

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 Pmsl

Also look out west.  Once again the Pac strikes again.  I believe Frank pointed this out a day or two or few ago but there is potent Pac energy crashing the coast which is affecting the western trough.  We had prev characterized the western trough as "workable" but id put money on the fact that if that energy was delayed by 6-12 hrs the northern soln would have been the outcome.  Just enough flattening to prevent a nice sharp turen more NNE rather than NE or even ENE to the track. I was so focused on the JS that I forgot to look west.  The JS position is likely directly related to just how flat or amped the ridge out west is.  

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 5 500mb_sf

That's a great point and Frank did note that out days ago. The western ridge takes a beating these past several years causing progressive flows.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:26 am

dsix85 wrote:Sroc- do we even get an inch out by us from this?

I do. I still think 1-3 is possible N to S east of Rte 83 or perhaps William floyd. But it will come later

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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