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January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm

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CPcantmeasuresnow
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freezerburn
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:11 pm

Euro is  Warning level snows for Southern half of New Jersey and extreme Eastern Long Island advisory snows for rest of Long Island in Southern boroughs
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:25 pm

3+ for southern parts of NYC

Temps in the upper 20s for everyone
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:25 pm

These cutoffs are sharp as usual. Difference of 20 miles may mean an inch to 6" of snow. Where they setup will be game time to determine. I could totally see I-95 from Philly to NYC getting sig snow out of this.

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:31 pm

heehaw453 wrote:These cutoffs are sharp as usual.  Difference of 20 miles may mean an inch to 6" of snow.  Where they setup will be game time to determine.  I could totally see I-95 from Philly to NYC getting sig snow out of this.
 I agree it's interesting that the globals Except for the UK Get accumulating snow to New York City ann Long Island but the meso models do not
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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:41 pm

First Call map.  The line that separates the 0.5-2" and 2-4" may have to shift south through at least half of LI due to the fact that there is some really cold dry air as the moisture moves in.  What has me hesitate is the ratios will be very high, at least 12-15:1 or more N of LI so its the counter balance to the dry air.  Certainly still room to shift a tad N as well

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 2 Map_212

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:57 pm

I'm not even going to try with this one. lol. If my area gets 1" of snow or 8" of snow tomorrow I wouldn't be shocked. Sroc's map looks like a pretty good call.

I am however thrilled that SENJ Snowman may hit the jackpot in this. He has missed out on some big ones in recent years and it is tough to get an event like this at the SNJ coast, so would be nice for him to get the white gold this time.
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:01 pm

SRoc- we may be on the battle lines between Manorville and Wading River! I’m just south of exit 69 LIE

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:08 pm

dsix85 wrote:SRoc- we may be on the battle lines between Manorville and Wading River! I’m just south of exit 69 LIE

Totally. You are in a pretty good spot. I’ll probably be next door to you later tonight. Playing hockey at Rapid Fire arena later. I’m literally due N of you.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
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Post by emokid51783 Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:20 pm

Hate/Love to say this but this screams pure now cast event. Models are inconsistent

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:23 pm

emokid51783 wrote:Hate/Love to say this but this screams pure now cast event. Models are inconsistent

This is certainly true for everyone north of a line from about Burlington County NJ to Monmouth County NJ. South of there is pretty locked in on a significant snow event, but the northern tier of this just won't be locked in until it is happening.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:25 pm

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 2 32EE23B7-C196-4B1F-8E18-AFC363877837.png.c67708469c7c56f700a7da97ebd8c17b

EPS momma mia is that a juiced vortex. A bit more phase and NWS has an issue like Houston for NYC Metro

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:25 pm

billg315 wrote:
emokid51783 wrote:Hate/Love to say this but this screams pure now cast event. Models are inconsistent

This is certainly true for everyone north of a line from about Burlington County NJ to Monmouth County NJ. South of there is pretty locked in on a significant snow event, but the northern tier of this just won't be locked in until it is happening.

One caveat I guess would be is if there is any further northern shift the ratios over the southern third of NJ could drop off quick dropping totals despite the highest QPF. This is def a complex forecast

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:30 pm

Thanks Bill and others for the well wishes!! Of course, there’s a decent sized contingent (make that FULL TIME contingent lol) of Jersey Shore Coasties on the board, I just got the biggest mouth! Ha ha

But hopefully we get this one as presently billed. No doubt after a run of really good luck from 13/14 to 17/18, the last 3 yrs have been especially disappointing at the Shore. We did get a decent February overall last year, but nothing that came close to this potential.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:34 pm

In the blue area is may have a shot at sig snow.  I like the 95 corridor for having legit shot at sig snow right up to Staten Island, Brooklyn and then into LI. I think above this blue area c-2" and less as you move further away.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 2 Euro7011

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:49 pm

aiannone wrote:My one concern being on the edge is there is a big push of fresh cold dry air. That could really trim the northern gradient

Agreed. And I know temps will crash as it moves in, but how fast can it overcome the warm ground after a week of 40's and 50's? It won't be blitzing here like down south, will it be enough?

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:02 pm

The banner has been raised in coastal Ocean County.

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 2 78cace10

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:03 pm

As it’s 60 degrees!! Lol, my word!

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Post by phil155 Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:06 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
aiannone wrote:My one concern being on the edge is there is a big push of fresh cold dry air. That could really trim the northern gradient

Agreed. And I know temps will crash as it moves in, but how fast can it overcome the warm ground after a week of 40's and 50's? It won't be blitzing here like down south, will it be enough?

Thinking the same thing here in edison, not sure the snowfall intensity will be enough to overcome the warm ground. Southern nj, yes but up here not so sure

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:13 pm

18z NAM says... nope   lol

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 2 Nam10

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020        8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:24 pm

Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.

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Post by phil155 Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:25 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:18z NAM says... nope   lol

January 3rd 2022 potential coastal snowstorm - Page 2 Nam10

Hrrr is in line with the nam 😔

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:37 pm

Hate to say this but sometimes the SR models coup the LR models at the last minute so it very well could be the outcome but for those getting sig snow I hope not, and even scotts map has me getting .5-2 which i would be happy to see any snowflakes as I have not yet this year. Just hope it does not disrupt morning commute too much, if it were to come far enough north what timing are we talking?
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:37 pm

SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!

Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain

Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards. Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours. A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled. Nowcasting situations developing now.

Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:39 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Why is the NAM doing that? Ugghh. Oh well, at least now time starts soon enough. Lol.
to mess with and drive you crazy of course, I have a good feeling about this for you and if I get to see a inch or two that would be the icing on the cake, if it is sunny and cold that also will be fine, i hope we at least get a flurry lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:40 pm

amugs wrote:SENJ congrats wish for the best down there my man!!

Noted as I totally agree with from a wx board poster at 33 n rain

Still have backside energy wildcard, temp gradient wild card, thunderstorm development wildcards.  Gotta watch how these development the next 12 hours.  A small change to some of these could have an immediate effect track and precip shield wise that won't be modeled.  Nowcasting situations developing now.

Latent heat release of T-storms can do wonky things to model. This synoptic set up is very difficult. GFS, GEFS, EURO and EPS are all in lockstep basically.
Interesting, what t-storms is he talking about? Is there a t-storm tail on this down south? How would that effect the outcome up here? Sorry thats probably a loaded question.
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