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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Empty Re: January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:29 pm

18z 3k NAM
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Sn10_a42
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:35 pm

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
333 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-062045-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
333 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Low pressure is expected to produce a round of snow late Thursday
night into Friday. Although there is still some certainty regarding
the exact track, timing, and intensity of the system, a general 2 to
4 inch snowfall is expected across the area. The snowfall is
expected to impact the Friday morning commute.
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Post by phil155 Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:37 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z 3k NAM
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Sn10_a42


I would take that and be very happy with it at this point

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Post by mikeypizano Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:43 pm

I'll probably end up with a coating...
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:52 pm

Interesting difference from Accuweather saying 3 to 6 and NWS saying 1 to 2 in my area. I would be happy with 3 at this point.24 hours to nowcast anyway.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:53 pm

The 18Z NAM was better organized at the mid-levels.  Think that type of run would be nice event.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Nam3k10

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:58 pm

Your best lift is in the brown darker colors, but not necessarily best ratios. That looks intense to me.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Lift10


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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:14 pm

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Fixoki10

I think we take this area wide.

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:18 pm

3K NAM deepens it quite rapidly and give frontgenesis over NNJ but explodes over LI and CT. Those areas can dump snow.
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Nam3km12


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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:26 pm

Upton Disco... Sad

The 12Z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track
and timing of low pres tracking se of the benchmark Thu ngt into
Fri. This would produce a 1-3 inch snowfall west and 2-4 inches
east. The fcst follows this thinking.

The overall model trend has been east with the sys, so it would not
be surprising to see a further ewd trend in future model runs. Any
trend w would produce more snow. Because of the trend, and current
snow totals blw advy criteria in many places, will not issue an advy
with this fcst. The snowfall potential will continue to be
highlighted in the hwo and idss briefing products.

Most of the snow will occur late Thu ngt into Fri mrng, which will
impact the mrng commute.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:30 pm

I’m pretty much in the same camp as Upton. 

Snow is snow! From what I see in the medium to long range there is going to be ample opportunities to go

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:37 pm

At this stage if I get enough to completely cover the grass I suppose I’ll take it. I won’t necessarily be happy about it but.......
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:41 pm

NWS own blended model. In total disagreement with Upton LOL!

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Blend_acc_snow_ne_66.png.e01b140bf0fc797c884cd0120011ec12

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:44 pm

@amugs wrote:NWS own blended model. In total disagreement with Upton LOL!

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Blend_acc_snow_ne_66.png.e01b140bf0fc797c884cd0120011ec12

Maybe we can pull the last minute NW shift haha
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:55 pm

NAM is picking up on the surface much effects better than globals which is no shock.  This is 18Z GFS and this mid-level energy looks healthier each run.  If this keeps trending look for an over performer.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:12 pm

18Z gfs bumped west with the snow totals. 18z on top 12z on bottom
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Sn10_a43
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Sn10_a44
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:00 pm

GEFS come West. The gyrations continue.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 61d61606b23bd.png.b442ea10ddc32a56fe8bf07456bb369c

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:02 pm

0Z will be telling and hopefully the WC sharpens a tad allowing for the energy to consolidate and we need the confluence to weaken and move a tad N to get this to move NW.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:23 pm

Good read from DT
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-call-snowfall-map-jan-6-7-event-for-tn-se-ky-wvava-md-del-se-third-of-pa-nj-southeast-third-of-d4789c9c3e87
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Post by Snow88 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:05 pm

Euro is west. H5 looks much better. Good precip into NJ and NYC along with SNE
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:34 pm

18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night. Could be right on the 95.

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:39 pm

If you look at the models now, there seems to be pretty broad agreement on this as a 2-4" event, with areas south and east more likely to hit the 4" and areas to north and west more likely to get the 2". I could see if things developed a little more favorably (last Euro had some positives at the upper levels) it could become a 4-6" storm, but really I think we're locking in on the former. At this point I'll take my 2 or 3" of white landscape decoration and turn my eyes to the third week of January for the whole megillah.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:39 pm

You can see the surface low getting inside BM now. This isn't done trending IMO.

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Post by billg315 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:52 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night.  Could be right on the 95.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Euro7013

All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:56 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night.  Could be right on the 95.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 4 Euro7013

All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.

I was thinking the same billg when looking at this. Seems almost a carbon copy of what happened a few days ago.
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