January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

amugs wrote:Globals are starting to resolve the meso and ingredients set up I would assume but the mess have the physics and algorithms to pick this up.
SROC pointed it out before with the 3K NAM and the HRRR and HREFs have it as well as the RGEM. Very interesting for sure.

Where and if this PVA sets up can be the difference between 2" and 4".

Also ratios will be 12:15-1 in NNJ on North.

Looks like from that map the same for NYC on north into my neck of the woods, just been watching the forum as been busy with work. Reel this one in guys! Looking more or less or the same in terms of seeing 6+ somewhere?

18Z NAM


18Z HRRR


Glad we have agreement

18z 3k NAM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
333 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

ANZ345-CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-062045-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
333 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Low pressure is expected to produce a round of snow late Thursday
night into Friday. Although there is still some certainty regarding
the exact track, timing, and intensity of the system, a general 2 to
4 inch snowfall is expected across the area. The snowfall is
expected to impact the Friday morning commute.

aiannone wrote:18z 3k NAM

I would take that and be very happy with it at this point

I'll probably end up with a coating...

Interesting difference from Accuweather saying 3 to 6 and NWS saying 1 to 2 in my area. I would be happy with 3 at this point.24 hours to nowcast anyway.

The 18Z NAM was better organized at the mid-levels.  Think that type of run would be nice event.

Your best lift is in the brown darker colors, but not necessarily best ratios. That looks intense to me.

I think we take this area wide.

3K NAM deepens it quite rapidly and give frontgenesis over NNJ but explodes over LI and CT. Those areas can dump snow.

Upton Disco...

The 12Z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in good agreement with the track
and timing of low pres tracking se of the benchmark Thu ngt into
Fri. This would produce a 1-3 inch snowfall west and 2-4 inches
east. The fcst follows this thinking.

The overall model trend has been east with the sys, so it would not
be surprising to see a further ewd trend in future model runs. Any
trend w would produce more snow. Because of the trend, and current
snow totals blw advy criteria in many places, will not issue an advy
with this fcst. The snowfall potential will continue to be
highlighted in the hwo and idss briefing products.

Most of the snow will occur late Thu ngt into Fri mrng, which will
impact the mrng commute.

I’m pretty much in the same camp as Upton. 

Snow is snow! From what I see in the medium to long range there is going to be ample opportunities to go

At this stage if I get enough to completely cover the grass I suppose I’ll take it. I won’t necessarily be happy about it but.......

NWS own blended model. In total disagreement with Upton LOL!

amugs wrote:NWS own blended model. In total disagreement with Upton LOL!

Maybe we can pull the last minute NW shift haha

NAM is picking up on the surface much effects better than globals which is no shock.  This is 18Z GFS and this mid-level energy looks healthier each run.  If this keeps trending look for an over performer.

18Z gfs bumped west with the snow totals. 18z on top 12z on bottom

GEFS come West. The gyrations continue.

0Z will be telling and hopefully the WC sharpens a tad allowing for the energy to consolidate and we need the confluence to weaken and move a tad N to get this to move NW.

Good read from DT
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/1st-call-snowfall-map-jan-6-7-event-for-tn-se-ky-wvava-md-del-se-third-of-pa-nj-southeast-third-of-d4789c9c3e87

Euro is west. H5 looks much better. Good precip into NJ and NYC along with SNE

18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night. Could be right on the 95.

If you look at the models now, there seems to be pretty broad agreement on this as a 2-4" event, with areas south and east more likely to hit the 4" and areas to north and west more likely to get the 2". I could see if things developed a little more favorably (last Euro had some positives at the upper levels) it could become a 4-6" storm, but really I think we're locking in on the former. At this point I'll take my 2 or 3" of white landscape decoration and turn my eyes to the third week of January for the whole megillah.

You can see the surface low getting inside BM now. This isn't done trending IMO.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night.  Could be right on the 95.

All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.

billg315 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z Euro.
Whoever gets under this energy is getting 6" tomorrow night.  Could be right on the 95.

All the models seem to have this energy across SNJ presently (the Canadian a little further north). Would be ironic if they got the best action out of this again -- two times in one week.

I was thinking the same billg when looking at this. Seems almost a carbon copy of what happened a few days ago.