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March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior?

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 8:03 am

heehaw453 wrote:Euro in general IMO is wrong with this system.  It's about the synoptics which IMO are pretty much set now that we are within 60 hours.

  1. Strong Miller A's in March more often than not will pull closer to the coast than modelled.  Especially w/out any west based blocking to inhibit that.
  2. The antecedent air mass is bad. No it's really bad so much so that the SE ridge does it's dirty work all the way up to ME
  3. The storm is a really fast mover mostly due to point 1.


These things taken together are too much to overcome for any meaningful for most of the area IMO.

I'd say I-95 and points SE not much of anything
NW of I-95 within 40 miles maybe a c-1"
Well NW of I-95 maybe an 1-2"
I-81 corridor from Scranton to Binghamton has the best shot of 3-6"
Elevated areas > 1500' in NEPA/NW NJ/Sullivan or Delaware Counties 3-5".  That extra elevation will allow for a quick paste.  

We shall see and good luck to all!
Point 1 will be wrong on my original thoughts most likely other points stand.  The heights out ahead of the trough are too damp to have this hug the coast.  It will be inside the BM which gives the interior good rates coupled with faster crash of temps. There will even be good ratio snows for an hour or two in the interior. This is a longitude thing not really a latitude thing wrt to temp crash.  So one big difference with this one as opposed to the last train wreck IMBY/western NJ is dynamics which will do a much better job on the temps allowing for sticking.

Revised call
I-95 and points SE c-2" including LI/NJ Coast/NYC
NW of I-95 (within 30 miles) 1-3"
Well NW of I-95 2-4" including NNJ/LHV/EPA/Western NJ
I-81 corridor Scranton to Binghamton 4-6"
Elevated areas > 1500' in NEPA/NW NJ/NY State Sullivan and Delaware Counties 5-7".  That extra elevation will matter.  

Storm is moving too fast for much more than that IMO.  Any slowdown which is doubtful would have sig repercussions on accumulations.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:04 am

Laughing Laughing Laughing

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 2 Hrrr-n10
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:24 am

NAM 12 & 3k cont to offer a colder soln.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:32 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Laughing Laughing Laughing

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 2 Hrrr-n10

2 inch per hour snow at high noon. That will be fun to watch for a couple of hours.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:44 am

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 2 Captur10
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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:07 am

SoulSingMG wrote:March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 2 Captur10

100% Soul.  Here is the 3K NAM analysis of the column







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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:42 am

Models all seem to be coming into agreement on this back-end thump. And not only will the rates be pretty good (heavy snow > sun angle) but temps will be plummeting so unlike Wednesdays event where many people stayed in the mid-30s, temps here may drop below freezing well before this shuts down.
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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:45 am

Frankly if we're getting 1-2" per hour rates around midday, with temps dropping to 30-32* at that point, it would be hard not to get a few inches out of this for many people.
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Post by billg315 Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:48 am

NAM, EURO and HRRR all have this as a solid 4-8" event in NW NJ which is nothing to sneeze at.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:10 am

billg315 wrote:NAM, EURO and HRRR all have this as a solid 4-8" event in NW NJ which is nothing to sneeze at.

NWS not buying that ATM, only 1 to 3 in the LHV.Don't know what model they are following.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:12 am

billg315 wrote:Models all seem to be coming into agreement on this back-end thump. And not only will the rates be pretty good (heavy snow > sun angle) but temps will be plummeting so unlike Wednesdays event where many people stayed in the mid-30s, temps here may drop below freezing well before this shuts down.
100%  This has dynamics and will stick for Western NJ/EPA unlike last system's white rain.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:24 am

docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:NAM, EURO and HRRR all have this as a solid 4-8" event in NW NJ which is nothing to sneeze at.

NWS not buying that ATM, only 1 to 3 in the LHV.Don't know what model they are following.
I have 2-4" for your area Doc and I am being conservative with that because of some negative factors, however, I won't be surprised to see you crack 6".  The trajectory of the storm is very favorable as is the intensification latitude.  It's like classic actually interior special.  

If not for the crap initial air mass you'd be 8-12".  The possibility of something like that is a slight slowdown of the storm.  Unlikely, but not out of the question because rapidly deepening low pressure can be hard to predict.  If there was blocking with this one you'd need a yard stick to measure it...

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Post by Radz Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:27 am

2-6 for Wappingers where I’m working
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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:02 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
billg315 wrote:NAM, EURO and HRRR all have this as a solid 4-8" event in NW NJ which is nothing to sneeze at.

NWS not buying that ATM, only 1 to 3 in the LHV.Don't know what model they are following.
I have 2-4" for your area Doc and I am being conservative with that because of some negative factors, however, I won't be surprised to see you crack 6".  The trajectory of the storm is very favorable as is the intensification latitude.  It's like classic actually interior special.  

If not for the crap initial air mass you'd be 8-12".  The possibility of something like that is a slight slowdown of the storm.  Unlikely, but not out of the question because rapidly deepening low pressure can be hard to predict.  If there was blocking with this one you'd need a yard stick to measure it...

Roger that ,heehaw.

Those storms are what CP calls Hudson Valley Specials and this one is close to it.Our Northern guys, Damian,jimv and Hyde have a good shot at that 6 you mentioned.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:11 pm

Sorry for being MIA of late! I've been dealing with some personal things (nothing serious). Tomorrow's system looks very dynamic and fascinating from a tracking standpoint. I'm not caught up as much as I like to be so I'm not going to say much right now. I'll take a closer look later today. But...looks fun with a nice accumulation to boot!

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Post by frank 638 Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry for being MIA of late! I've been dealing with some personal things (nothing serious). Tomorrow's system looks very dynamic and fascinating from a tracking standpoint. I'm not caught up as much as I like to be so I'm not going to say much right now. I'll take a closer look later today. But...looks fun with a nice accumulation to boot!
I hope everything is going well with you Frank Let’s hope we will get a nice surprise for tomorrow

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 11, 2022 12:47 pm

Accuweather has me now at 3 to 6 from 1 to 3.

Nice to see Frank and will look forward to your analysis later.
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Post by phil155 Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:01 pm

seems like this one may have a shot at over performing

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:04 pm

coastal plain def has a shot at overperforming

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:coastal plain def has a shot at overperforming
I am in CT,if I drive home tomorrow midday would that be a bad idea or will I-95 south to NY be okay? Or should I leave early?
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Post by amugs Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:02 pm

The frongenesis with this is going produce as Soul posted earlier 2" plus per hour rates just outside the metro regions. Sleet on the transition allows for the column to cool better and allow teh snow to stick once it starts to falls as been experienced over teh years.
The temps crash hard - flash freeze possible as well.
This reminds me a lot of the 2002 Xmas storm that went from rain to ice to a thumping snowstorm that has blizzard like conditions.
As stated it is in and out by about 4PM - if had blocking it be a blizzard hands down.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 2 1647432000-JBmsodAIZoo

Hourly snowfall rate Euro 10 AM-1 pm we thump hard in NNJ, LHV and NW NJ
March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 2 Ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-snow_1hr_10to1-1647000000-1647090000-1647126000-40

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:coastal plain def has a shot at overperforming
I am in CT,if I drive home tomorrow midday would that be a bad idea or will I-95 south to NY be okay? Or should I leave early?

I am too but not leaving until 4pm ish now to head to New Haven my man - not chancing it.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:16 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:coastal plain def has a shot at overperforming
I am in CT,if I drive home tomorrow midday would that be a bad idea or will I-95 south to NY be okay? Or should I leave early?

I am too but not leaving until 4pm ish now to head to New Haven my man - not chancing it.
I am already in CT, I am supposed to leave tomorrow in hotel, so i guess i just need to leave later in the day tomorrow? I would prefer not to have to go back to NY tonight.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:41 pm

What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:47 pm

NWS doesnt seem to think anything for upton catchmen area.
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