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March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior?

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Mar 11, 2022 2:53 pm

Radz wrote:2-6 for Wappingers where I’m working

Where abouts you working Radz. I live up there.

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Post by amugs Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

Changeover by almost all models is about 10AM - NAM is the latest with between 11-12 changeover.
HRRR crusher job between 11 and 1
March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Hrrr-nystate-snow_1hr_10to1-1647021600-1647090000-1647126000-40

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 1647154800-sizvOzGCB9M" />

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:14 pm

NWS just upped me to WSW from WWA, now 4 to 7 from 2 to 4 earlier so cold trend continues.
I am in that little purple slot on the HRRR above, 6 inches.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:21 pm

And there it is… Laughing

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 A33a5610

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 92a50d10
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Post by frank 638 Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:25 pm

I’m excited to see a little snow tomorrow I just received a Winter weather advisory for tomorrow.
This might be our last one until next winter

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:29 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

Changeover by almost all models is about 10AM - NAM is the latest with between 11-12 changeover.
HRRR crusher job between 11 and 1
March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Hrrr-nystate-snow_1hr_10to1-1647021600-1647090000-1647126000-40

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 1647154800-sizvOzGCB9M" />
Okay I will just plan to be back before or by 10, im way to tired to drive back tonight, wish me luck cuz ill be driving towards the storm instead of away lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

Changeover by almost all models is about 10AM - NAM is the latest with between 11-12 changeover.
HRRR crusher job between 11 and 1
March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Hrrr-nystate-snow_1hr_10to1-1647021600-1647090000-1647126000-40

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 1647154800-sizvOzGCB9M" />
Okay I will just plan to be back before or by 10, im way to tired to drive back tonight, wish me luck cuz ill be driving towards the storm instead of away lol

Good luck, eastern Connecticut and virtually all of eastern New England seem to stay all rain with this one.

Winter storm warning just got issued for orange county for 4 to 7 inches. Criteria for a warning is 6 inches so that’s cutting it pretty close.

Weather channel app says 3 to 5 inches and AccuWeather says 1 to 2 inches. So I guess pretty much expect anything.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:50 pm

18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Nam3k12

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Post by dkodgis Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:53 pm

Doc, CP -I saw the 7 inch high end too. Good tidings. This is a nice bowtie to winter
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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:55 pm

3k Nam would be the storm I need to turn this winter around.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 11, 2022 3:59 pm

dkodgis wrote:Doc, CP -I saw the 7 inch high end too. Good tidings. This is a nice bowtie to winter

It would be a great catch up storm for us up here Damian after being shortchanged all winter.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Nam3k12

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:09 pm

Looks like this is a dynamic, fluid, “now” storm. I am prepared. I went to Monroe today, specifically to the House of Stone, and then to the Empanada Master food truck. 8 empanadas later and back at home, I fearlessly await the storm. I would say we all should not underestimate the wind that will come
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:10 pm

That is ideal for interior with regard to track and intensification rate. Whenever you got that kind storm in the sweet spot then all bets are off.  This doesn't smell of a dud to me...

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 3km11

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:15 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Nam3k12

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.
What changed from my perspective is the trajectory of the storm.  I saw heights being high enough on the EC to tuck this thing in tight.  That would've screwed the entire forum outside of I-81.  Basically what you are seeing now was going to be pushed west about 100 miles.  The speed is still a mitigating factor and nothing has changed with that nor has anything changed with the poor antecedent air mass.  This type of storm had the potential to be 1'+ with either blocking or better antecedent air mass.

edit:
The only way 1' is occurring for anyone is if this slows down.  I won't discount that because this thing is exploding in the right spot.

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:32 pm

CP- I'm not sure the models picked up on just how North/South the gradient is going to be. I think it was heehaw who said longitude, not latitude. Very apparent now on the 3k NAM hour by hour shots (from 10 am through to 3 pm). And THAT is why all of this good news for the NJ coast still has such a small ceiling. Because all that heavy stuff is apparently being sucked straight north by all of you snow starved LHV denizens! Hopefully it plays out this way for y'all.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 3k_nam12
March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 3k_nam11
March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 3k_nam10March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 3k_nam15

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:45 pm

I still feel good about my revised call.  However, if it busts I think it will bust being too Low. If anything like 3k NAM does happen, then it's full weenie mode tomorrow I can assure you.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:59 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Nam3k12

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.

What am I chop liver

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Post by GreyBeard Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:35 pm

dkodgis wrote: I would say we all should not underestimate the wind that will come


If you eat the empanadas outdoors you should be ok.lol

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 Nam3k12

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.

What am I chop liver

I’m confused, but I am getting kind of old.
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Post by amugs Fri Mar 11, 2022 6:22 pm

This is again a 2002 Xmas redux storm in the making with an explosive arctic front and quickly deepening cyclogenesis storm. The dynamics are going to be crazy. The maps I have been posting about the hourly snow rates if you add them up and extrapolate = 3-6" storm NNJ and NYC metro. Outside that ~20 -25 ?miles it's 4-8" and then further west ~50 miles is 6-10/12".
Watch the latent heat release as this explodes S of the Mason Dixon line. Those dbz will be tell tale as to we hit the higher end of the forecast.
That arctic air means business and like I said your not going to out forecast nature on these dynamic systems. She will.always have her say.

March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior? - Page 3 837126645_3-11uptonStormTotalSnow.jpeg.4db213522bb7f9a89d9ba85e64182201

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:07 pm

If this is right then many folks going to be smiling widely tomorrow here.  

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:36 pm

18z Euro coming in colder/snowier.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:41 pm

Gosh i really hope I make it back before the changeover, I wanna see this. If I stayed here(which I can't) I would only see rain.  Looks like majority of my trip at least 60plus miles of the 120 will be all rain no matter what time, its when I reach fairfield county I have to beat it. And ya wind advisories up for 50mph gusts, the empanada joke was great lol
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Post by Snow88 Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:59 pm

18z eps is the snowiest run yet for areas near the coast
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