March 12 2022 Strong and Fast Moving Storm - Winter's last stand for interior?

What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

NWS doesnt seem to think anything for upton catchmen area.

Radz wrote:2-6 for Wappingers where I’m working

Where abouts you working Radz. I live up there.

jmanley32 wrote:What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

Changeover by almost all models is about 10AM - NAM is the latest with between 11-12 changeover.
HRRR crusher job between 11 and 1


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NWS just upped me to WSW from WWA, now 4 to 7 from 2 to 4 earlier so cold trend continues.
I am in that little purple slot on the HRRR above, 6 inches.

And there it is…

I’m excited to see a little snow tomorrow I just received a Winter weather advisory for tomorrow.
This might be our last one until next winter

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

Changeover by almost all models is about 10AM - NAM is the latest with between 11-12 changeover.
HRRR crusher job between 11 and 1


" />

Okay I will just plan to be back before or by 10, im way to tired to drive back tonight, wish me luck cuz ill be driving towards the storm instead of away lol

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What time does the snow start tomorrow? Maybe I can beat it back if I leave from here really early in the morning. Like head back around 8am (takes 2 hours from here to Yonkers).

Changeover by almost all models is about 10AM - NAM is the latest with between 11-12 changeover.
HRRR crusher job between 11 and 1


" />

Okay I will just plan to be back before or by 10, im way to tired to drive back tonight, wish me luck cuz ill be driving towards the storm instead of away lol

Good luck, eastern Connecticut and virtually all of eastern New England seem to stay all rain with this one.

Winter storm warning just got issued for orange county for 4 to 7 inches. Criteria for a warning is 6 inches so that’s cutting it pretty close.

Weather channel app says 3 to 5 inches and AccuWeather says 1 to 2 inches. So I guess pretty much expect anything.

18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

Doc, CP -I saw the 7 inch high end too. Good tidings. This is a nice bowtie to winter

3k Nam would be the storm I need to turn this winter around.

dkodgis wrote:Doc, CP -I saw the 7 inch high end too. Good tidings. This is a nice bowtie to winter

It would be a great catch up storm for us up here Damian after being shortchanged all winter.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.

Looks like this is a dynamic, fluid, “now” storm. I am prepared. I went to Monroe today, specifically to the House of Stone, and then to the Empanada Master food truck. 8 empanadas later and back at home, I fearlessly await the storm. I would say we all should not underestimate the wind that will come

That is ideal for interior with regard to track and intensification rate. Whenever you got that kind storm in the sweet spot then all bets are off.  This doesn't smell of a dud to me...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.

What changed from my perspective is the trajectory of the storm.  I saw heights being high enough on the EC to tuck this thing in tight.  That would've screwed the entire forum outside of I-81.  Basically what you are seeing now was going to be pushed west about 100 miles.  The speed is still a mitigating factor and nothing has changed with that nor has anything changed with the poor antecedent air mass.  This type of storm had the potential to be 1'+ with either blocking or better antecedent air mass.

edit:
The only way 1' is occurring for anyone is if this slows down.  I won't discount that because this thing is exploding in the right spot.

CP- I'm not sure the models picked up on just how North/South the gradient is going to be. I think it was heehaw who said longitude, not latitude. Very apparent now on the 3k NAM hour by hour shots (from 10 am through to 3 pm). And THAT is why all of this good news for the NJ coast still has such a small ceiling. Because all that heavy stuff is apparently being sucked straight north by all of you snow starved LHV denizens! Hopefully it plays out this way for y'all.

I still feel good about my revised call.  However, if it busts I think it will bust being too Low. If anything like 3k NAM does happen, then it's full weenie mode tomorrow I can assure you.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.

What am I chop liver

dkodgis wrote: I would say we all should not underestimate the wind that will come

If you eat the empanadas outdoors you should be ok.lol

sroc4 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:18Z 3K NAM went full weenie  I'd be happy with half of this.  For several hours surface will be well below freezing, decent ratio snows and this may actually look genuine.  Let's see.

This is in no way a criticism because no one saw this, if it does actually happen, two days ago.

If this does develop as some of the short range models are showing now what changed in those two days? I actually thought with the speed of this that even if we did stay all snow we would pretty much max out at 4 to 5 inches. Now I realize we still may but that 3 km Nam is now showing over a foot in parts in Orange County.

What am I chop liver

I’m confused, but I am getting kind of old.

This is again a 2002 Xmas redux storm in the making with an explosive arctic front and quickly deepening cyclogenesis storm. The dynamics are going to be crazy. The maps I have been posting about the hourly snow rates if you add them up and extrapolate = 3-6" storm NNJ and NYC metro. Outside that ~20 -25 ?miles it's 4-8" and then further west ~50 miles is 6-10/12".
Watch the latent heat release as this explodes S of the Mason Dixon line. Those dbz will be tell tale as to we hit the higher end of the forecast.
That arctic air means business and like I said your not going to out forecast nature on these dynamic systems. She will.always have her say.

If this is right then many folks going to be smiling widely tomorrow here.  

18z Euro coming in colder/snowier.

Gosh i really hope I make it back before the changeover, I wanna see this. If I stayed here(which I can't) I would only see rain.  Looks like majority of my trip at least 60plus miles of the 120 will be all rain no matter what time, its when I reach fairfield county I have to beat it. And ya wind advisories up for 50mph gusts, the empanada joke was great lol

18z eps is the snowiest run yet for areas near the coast