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Long Range Thread 25.0

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:01 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:The PNA goes neutral to slightly Positive - big win if it occurs for snow chances to the coastal plain. We have a stout Negative NAO (greenLand Block) and a Aluetian Block (Negative EPO) with a piece of the PV sitting over Hudson Bay. A very nice set up again IF it comes to fruitoin - we have all 3 globals saying so at this time.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 FipooeLXkAMYVsR?format=png&name=medium

This really doesn't look like a true -EPO alignment.  IMO the Ridge needs to be N of the Aleutian Islands.  So long as it is south of the Aleutians this will promote the tendency to place a trough along the WC of Canada and N CONUS and Pac energy will be constantly bombarding any attempted pos PNA spike.  We need that ridge centered more over Alaska or at least over the Bering Sea, rather than south of the islands.    

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Hghg10
Good points on that. I don't believe there is going to be any major storm threat until the block retrogrades/breaks down more towards Hudson Bay and help the PNA with more amplification. It's one major reason I believe the substantial threat period is more mid-month than early month.  What I believe to be different from last December 2021 1/we don't have the extreme hostile -PNA , 2/more favorable arctic domains at least as modelled. Now prior to mid-month as the blocking continues to cool the area there probably will be minor/moderate threats even at the coast as I don't think the PAC is that bad and it will be cold enough.  I like 12/10-12/15ish for that and then from 12/17-12/25 something more substantial on the EC. This is the kind of blocking and PAC combo I've seen more often than not before a very wintry period on the EC. It's going to be interesting to see guidance in the next 10 days and hopefully it pans out  Wink

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:10 pm

They heard us Scott LOL!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fiq3SJ5XoAEPaQB?format=jpg&name=medium

IF this occurs then peeps we gonna be busy!!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 200w.gif?cid=6c09b95213jz8q5fmvjxxysqy66wovxdsxrsutyiml8ojaah&rid=200w

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:15 pm

@Heehaw - Archimbault Event as the block releases a bit? Those are the 2016 blizz, 2011, 2010 on and on storms. Not calling for anything big until after the pattern matures as per historicval pattern dictation but a measurable down to the coast by the 10-12thish is not out of the question. Time will tell.

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Post by amugs Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:17 pm

Tick tock tick tock - like clockwork!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Image.png.a20f8d8ca1cc209b9163299107a61c39

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:39 pm

amugs wrote:Tick tock tick tock - like clockwork!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Image.png.a20f8d8ca1cc209b9163299107a61c39
Retrograding right to the Hudson Bay and amping up that PNA domain.  Check this link and see how it matches up with some of the bigger storms to hit the NYC area.  It's not imminent but it's eye candy for sure.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by Irish Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:58 am

https://pressofatlanticcity.com/weather/forecasts-point-to-early-snowy-start-for-new-jersey-winter/article_403837cc-6610-11ed-a3d1-ef3a4be2e40e.html

In a Nov. 15 update to his long-range forecast, Cohen said a pattern that supports milder air is moving from the Ural Mountains to Greenland. That develops a pattern that supports colder weather in Siberia.

As a result, this would promote a polar vortex, the upper level low-pressure system that is present during the cool season, for South Jersey.

“I think if we get meaningful winter weather at least early on in the winter, it’s likely to come from a stretched polar vortex,” Cohen said.

The polar vortex normally spins like a top at the poles. However, it can be disrupted and dip into the United States. The vortex will do so either as a stretched event, where it stays as one unit but moves south, or by splitting into two, with one section moving toward the equator.

If the polar vortex is positioned over the Northeast, it will send the jet stream, the river of air roughly 30,000 feet high, south of New Jersey. That would unleash frigid air from the arctic, with opportunities for big snowstorms as well.

“We already had an extreme example of it (stretched polar vortex) earlier where places were having their big early snows and early record cold,” Cohen said.

Should that colder-than-average atmosphere not arrive, it’s likely the polar vortex will spin tightly like a top at the North Pole, keeping mild Pacific air flowing into the Northeast all winter long.
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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by MattyICE Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:37 am

Irish wrote:https://pressofatlanticcity.com/weather/forecasts-point-to-early-snowy-start-for-new-jersey-winter/article_403837cc-6610-11ed-a3d1-ef3a4be2e40e.html

In a Nov. 15 update to his long-range forecast, Cohen said a pattern that supports milder air is moving from the Ural Mountains to Greenland. That develops a pattern that supports colder weather in Siberia.

As a result, this would promote a polar vortex, the upper level low-pressure system that is present during the cool season, for South Jersey.

“I think if we get meaningful winter weather at least early on in the winter, it’s likely to come from a stretched polar vortex,” Cohen said.

The polar vortex normally spins like a top at the poles. However, it can be disrupted and dip into the United States. The vortex will do so either as a stretched event, where it stays as one unit but moves south, or by splitting into two, with one section moving toward the equator.

If the polar vortex is positioned over the Northeast, it will send the jet stream, the river of air roughly 30,000 feet high, south of New Jersey. That would unleash frigid air from the arctic, with opportunities for big snowstorms as well.

“We already had an extreme example of it (stretched polar vortex) earlier where places were having their big early snows and early record cold,” Cohen said.

Should that colder-than-average atmosphere not arrive, it’s likely the polar vortex will spin tightly like a top at the North Pole, keeping mild Pacific air flowing into the Northeast all winter long.

Seems he might have offered these thoughts before we started to see some of these strong NAO trends show up on reliable guidance. Not sure if that would change his opinion - just an observation.

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:52 am

Here is your top down SSWE (Sudden Stratospheric Warming event)of the Polar Vortext in motion as perdicted by the GFS. Correlation to the HT (Hunga Tonga)Volcanic WV and particulates from that explosion? Maybe but thisis interesting and exciting to watch unfold.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fit1ChfXgAAIXjl?format=jpg&name=900x900



Yes you wil hear me harp ALL winter long on this BECAUSE it is again the greatest volcanic event of our modern history dating back to Tambora of 1815.

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:54 am


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Post by dkodgis Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:08 am

A trillion tons of water vapor and a big hole in the bed. May change weather for a few years. We’ll see.


I was born visible, but I identify as invisible. My preferred pronouns are who/where.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:01 pm

^^^ True Damian.

This is a nice wave progression but not into 4 nor 5 and back into COD after 2 or 3 would be ideal LOL!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 FivgNxbXkAELrwo?format=png&name=small

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 FivgbhbWAAAkeiM?format=png&name=small

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:26 pm

Interesting looks as we transform the pattern

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_38

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_41

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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:28 pm

Ridge Bridge over the arctic and Ridge building over the rockies is a good look

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_49

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:36 pm

Sorry I am sure you guys covered it but I do not have time to read pages back. Is there any snow potential in the near future for NYC area/coastal plain or do we have to wait till Jan or later? Just curious.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Sorry I am sure you guys covered it but I do not have time to read pages back. Is there any snow potential in the near future for NYC area/coastal plain or do we have to wait till Jan or later?  Just curious.

By midish December we may see out 1st snow threat.

This is a matured winter pattern that would put some white gold around to help the Xmas spirit for sure.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fiwwyb10



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Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:26 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Sorry I am sure you guys covered it but I do not have time to read pages back. Is there any snow potential in the near future for NYC area/coastal plain or do we have to wait till Jan or later?  Just curious.

By midish December we may see out 1st snow threat.

This is a matured winter pattern that would put some white gold around to help the Xmas spirit for sure.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fiwwyb10


That 500mb map gives me that 2009/2010 vibe. Huge potential with a lot of sleepless nights awaits if the models are correct.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:56 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Sorry I am sure you guys covered it but I do not have time to read pages back. Is there any snow potential in the near future for NYC area/coastal plain or do we have to wait till Jan or later?  Just curious.

By midish December we may see out 1st snow threat.

This is a matured winter pattern that would put some white gold around to help the Xmas spirit for sure.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fiwwyb10


That 500mb map gives me that 2009/2010 vibe. Huge potential with a lot of sleepless nights awaits if the models are correct.
Last year I proved that 40 was my limit on sleepless nights lol, just can't do it anymore, only when I know I do not have to wake up the next day can I do it.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:24 pm

Um Houston wth is this? This just moved up 3 days. We NEVER have this with cold and winter like patterns. That Uber block is on steroids and being seen over whelming the SE Ridge. If tjis holds or moves up by about 100 more miles from that block and EPO press that the Dec 6th HAS to slide under it and can't cut. Time will tell.

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fixh3f10

Great graphic by this kid.



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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:03 am

Umm moving on up ... in time...George Jefferson!

From Matt Ferrier 33 n Rain wx board.
Want warm-up? NYET!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Image_10
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Image_11

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Image_10
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Image_11





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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:30 am

HONKING!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 768377569_ScreenShot2022-11-30at5_53_58AM.png.d89b7cf4eeae0de36a39cb93d9369a8e

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:32 am

Winter flexing its muscles early around here.  After 7th or so I'd expect BN temps for December for foreseeable future.  You'll see banana highs park themselves in Quebec to upper mid west. Normally I don't subscribe to the paid weather sites until mid December, but this year shall be earlier. 

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Eps50015

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:48 am

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Fi0bukbWYAQDzcn?format=jpg&name=medium

Fantasy storms are forming as well on models, the Great Billy Joel Sang - Its Just a Fantasy!! BUT they have some merrit with the blocking forming.

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:50 am

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_31

We get the PNA rise and the press from the EPO and Greenland Block with the N AO, something may form and belly under that block. It's real and hopefully its spectactular!!

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:56 am



This is where we are headaing - Hunga Tonga effect here?? I'd say so but we'll have to wait for the report, study.....months to a year(s) from now. Connect the dots - MASSIVE WARM SALT WATER BLOWN 36 MILES INTO THE SKY......MASSIVE WARM AIR ALOFT FORMING A MASSIVE WARM AIR BLOCK........Make sense, logic?

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:43 am

Next Wednesday 12/7 could trend colder.  Big western block already established tends to push down cold high pressure and force storms underneath.  Probably more of a threat for NW I95 due the progged SE ridge, but you never know with a block like modelled. 

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 Gfs12-10

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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:46 am

If this doesn't excite you folks the pure evolution of the pattern is remarkable so far. The models are seeing both blocks and strengthening them - the EPO is getting stronger and eroding, splitting the PNA negative - great sign there and the N AO and Greenie Blocks are stronger.
I said before something bellies under the 7-8th time frame.
Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 8307e8eb-ece7-4313-876e-52e97c0df598.gif.73384b7277383875881e1219a6f9e81e

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Nov 30, 2022 1:27 pm

This Split flow jet extension in the PAC off Japan would be a great sign for the 16-25th time frame BUT mega years before then. This sin itself would reshuffle the Pac to a MUCH more favorable pattern.

From 33nRain Nick Psomaris

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 5 1359261961_ScreenShot2022-11-30at1_08_39PM.png.f49148c8afa2bdfc35d26c80f656f40c

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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