Re: Banter Thread 8.0

[Quietace]

So if winter continues as is, I vote for a spring 2012 redux We might as well have an early summer if we can't get some snow, right? *

*I can not confirm that this may or may not represent my lack of hope for any significant pattern change in the next few months.

[docstox12]

Happy birthday NJ strong. BTW OTI anniversary coming up next month, the Island has officially reopened with no detectable radiation found thanks to BILLg and his Dawn soap.

Back to matters of life and death. First death, winter is deceased. As of today I’m  declaring the period from December 1 to January 31 shall now be known as “Wall” it’s a little colder than Fall but not really Winter either. February 1 to March 31 shall be the season of “Wing” not really winter but not quite spring either. Winter as we once knew it no longer exists. Here’s to hoping this Wing season is a lot better than the last several Walls have been.

[amugs]

Watch what happens as we head to March and April - 30's & 40's/low 50's chilly and rainy. We'll want to jump off the cliff because spring once again gets denied like winter!!

Mother Nature has her way of evening things out!!

How about that 7.0 earthquake of Vanuatu a couple of days ago? Planet Earth keeps percolating and reaching Solar Maximum of this solar cycle is going to aid in this as our magnetosphere wanes, diminishes. That part of the atmosphere is our protective force from all the solar radiation protons and electrons that bombard our planet. Our spaceship, Planet earth that is, has to absorb all this electrically charged particles and then somehow release it. EQ, Volcanoes, ground to cloud lightening are all ways it gets released. Interesting times ahead for sure.

[amugs]

Watch what happens as we head to March and April - 30's & 40's/low 50's chilly and rainy. We'll want to jump off the cliff because spring once again gets denied like winter!!

Mother Nature has her way of evening things out!!

How about that 7.0 earthquake of Vanuatu a couple of days ago? Planet Earth keeps percolating and reaching Solar Maximum of this solar cycle is going to aid in this as our magnetosphere wanes, diminishes. That part of the atmosphere is our protective force from all the solar radiation protons and electrons that bombard our planet. Our spaceship, Planet earth that is, has to absorb all this electrically charged particles and then somehow release it. EQ, Volcanoes, ground to cloud lightening are all ways it gets released. Interesting times ahead for sure.

And just like a major EQ and Tsunami warning fro Pacific!!

BREAKING: A powerful magnitude 7.6 #earthquake has struck near Pulau Pulau Tanimbar, Indonesia, or about 300 miles north of #Darwin, #Australia. Strong shaking reported.

This was along the order of the Australian/Eurasian Plates.

Partially thrust, partially lateral slip. pic.twitter.com/CyXZudLoax

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) January 9, 2023

[amugs]

EPS increasing to 9km resolution this summer and increasing to 101 ensemble members. Just when you thought the euro was king…#AMS2023

— Michael Souza, CCM (@mikesjustsayin) January 9, 2023

Wow!!

[dkodgis]

Friends in Sacramento CA tell me water is roaring down their street from the rain

[RJB8525]

Enjoyed yesterday mornings storm! Hope the 14th can do the trick

[mikeypizano]

Enjoyed yesterday mornings storm! Hope the 14th can do the trick

WINTER IS SAVED!

[mikeypizano]

I believe in God because I look around me and I see tangible evidence of a creator. I realize not everyone does and others can look around and just call it random chaos. Different point of view.

I do not believe in winter because I look around and there is no tangible evidence that it exists. Possibly in the distant past although those memories are becoming hazy but certainly not in the present and definitely not in the future. Winter does not exist, the sooner everyone accepts that the happier you’ll be.

Repeat after me,

I am one with the wall, I accept now the wing
Winter doesn’t exist, as much as that might sting.

Repeat that phrase 1000 times today and like me he will find peace.

Or better yet, go get a ham license and talk to the world!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I believe in God for several reasons, one is because I look around me and I see tangible evidence of a creator. I realize not everyone does, different points of view and that's fine.

I do not believe in winter because I look around and there is no tangible evidence that it exists. Possibly in the distant past, although those memories are becoming hazy, but certainly not in the present and definitely not in the future. Winter does not exist, the sooner everyone accepts that the happier you’ll be.

Repeat after me,

I am one with the wall, I accept now the wing
Winter doesn’t exist, as much as that may sting.

Repeat that phrase 1000 times today and like me you will find inner peace.

[docstox12]

Saw that post of yours on Long Range CP on the 90's.Guess we don't have much to talk about this winter so thinking back on real winters, no wings or walls, is fun.That 93-94 winter was cold alright.It featured that ice storm, heavy rain like a T Storm in 21 degree temps that formed one inch of ice.Towns ran out of salt and schools closed for a week.After the ice storm, for one solid week, the temps never got above 15-20 degrees so that ice stayed on the roads.Drove my rear wheel drive T Bird sideways at 5 mph on the Franklin Tpk to get to my office,LOL.
The next year was a bust but we did get a compensatory 12 inch snowstorm in Feb. '95.
97-98 was awful, the only snow was in March, maybe 5 inches that all melted that same day.
All examples of "reversion to the mean" which I like.
96-97,97-98 and 99-00 were pretty bad.

[Frank_Wx]

Happy birthday NJ strong. BTW OTI anniversary coming up next month, the Island has officially reopened with no detectable radiation found thanks to BILLg and his Dawn soap.

Back to matters of life and death. First death, winter is deceased. As of today I’m  declaring the period from December 1 to January 31 shall now be known as “Wall” it’s a little colder than Fall but not really Winter either. February 1 to March 31 shall be the season of “Wing” not really winter but not quite spring either. Winter as we once knew it no longer exists. Here’s to hoping this Wing season is a lot better than the last several Walls have been.

This was my favorite Wall year. Just look at that block. Something to salivate over

So if winter continues as is, I vote for a spring 2012 redux We might as well have an early summer if we can't get some snow, right? *

*I can not confirm that this may or may not represent my lack of hope for any significant pattern change in the next few months.

I had to refresh my memory. Its beautiful!!!

[mikeypizano]

Happy birthday NJ strong. BTW OTI anniversary coming up next month, the Island has officially reopened with no detectable radiation found thanks to BILLg and his Dawn soap.

Back to matters of life and death. First death, winter is deceased. As of today I’m  declaring the period from December 1 to January 31 shall now be known as “Wall” it’s a little colder than Fall but not really Winter either. February 1 to March 31 shall be the season of “Wing” not really winter but not quite spring either. Winter as we once knew it no longer exists. Here’s to hoping this Wing season is a lot better than the last several Walls have been.

This was my favorite Wall year. Just look at that block. Something to salivate over

So if winter continues as is, I vote for a spring 2012 redux We might as well have an early summer if we can't get some snow, right? *

*I can not confirm that this may or may not represent my lack of hope for any significant pattern change in the next few months.

I had to refresh my memory. Its beautiful!!!

Too bad nothing will happen. This is a bad year, plain and simple. La Nina year like the last 2 have been. Screw this, bring on spring!

[docstox12]

Mikey P hit the nail on the head.La Nina for the third straight year is the cause..Looks like nothing until the end of the month maybe.

[dkodgis]

A dusting up here for tomorrow. I will let all know if snow exists

[amugs]

WE may all be boo hooing and rightfuly so of how sucky this winter has been but God giveth and he taketh, simple equation.



But recall:

- March 2000 (The Independent, UK): 'Children just won't know what snow is.'

- February 2014 (NYTimes): "End of Snow?" ...More like when will the snow end in the 14-15 winter!!
These two predictions were way off base as usual.

Mammoth Lake in Cali has over 300, yes 300" so far this season and is expecting anotehr 50-100" in these next two storms.

The California snowpack is an incredible 215% of normal, with FEET of additional snowfall likely over the next 10 days.

The Southern Sierra's snowpack is 257% of normal, which is incredible to see because it has been the hardest-hit area in the state by the drought. pic.twitter.com/N9arEy5wMv

— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) January 10, 2023

Some other remarkable stats about the current snowpack in California:

Nearly 30 stations across the state have their largest snowpack on record to date.

The snow depth at Mammoth Mountain is almost 20 feet.

The Southern Sierra snowpack is 115% of the April 1 normal. pic.twitter.com/ki1F0BMdO9

— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) January 10, 2023

They will break records like "death to disco" aka "disco demolition" night by the brainless Chicago White Sox did in 1979:

[docstox12]

Glad CA is getting all that precip to alleviate low water conditions.

[heehaw453]

Our next big cutter on the long term map.  Cyclonic wave break will pull this baby up to the GL region.  Book it.

[amugs]

Anyone hear or feel what seemed like a sonic boom around 1PM today?? All over NNJ this boom was reported, Bergen, Passaic, Sussex, Morris counties even up in Rockland.

[amugs]

March 3rd to 5th a big east coast storm - book it - high sun energy cycle. +/- 2 days!!!
Wet or white is the question.
Parallels the Xmas Eve Eve storm - Dec 22-23rd.

[Dunnzoo]

Anyone hear or feel what seemed like a sonic boom around 1PM today?? All over NNJ this boom was reported, Bergen, Passaic, Sussex, Morris counties even up in Rockland.

Yep lots of reports of something, people think it was an earthquake but USGS didn't record anything. They were blasting at the quarry out near Jefferson Twp. yesterday sooooo....

[amugs]

Anyone hear or feel what seemed like a sonic boom around 1PM today?? All over NNJ this boom was reported, Bergen, Passaic, Sussex, Morris counties even up in Rockland.

Yep lots of reports of something, people think it was an earthquake but USGS didn't record anything. They were blasting at the quarry out near Jefferson Twp. yesterday sooooo....

At our NJWO meeting last one of the pro met said the same but then said - it doesn't make any sense that it was heard as far as Bergen County and Rockland County.

[HectorO]

Definitely felt it when I stepped out of work yesterday for a second. It was weird

[essexcountypete]

Recent advances in fusion, while promising, I fear are far down the road. While not very popular, I think we will eventually see more nuclear power being harnassed in the future. Interesting article here:

https://medium.com/predict/youll-be-shocked-to-know-what-the-most-eco-friendly-energy-is-a3f6db1dd39f

Admittedly, backers of wind, solar and hydro would be able to find justification for continued development in those fields.

With the push toward phasing out internal combustion engines in the not too distant future, it will be interesting to see which direction the powers that be will embrace. It certainly gives the average joe's like you and I a lot to ponder.

The thing about nuclear, Greybeard, is it takes 10 years to get all the permitting, designing and building done for a new nuclear plant.You remember back 40 or 50 years ago how people would protest nuclear plants or proposed ones.If we had developed nuclear properly from 1960 up, we would have hundreds of them up and running putting out clean power.The few we have now are nearing the end of their life cycle.Indian Point in this neck of the woods, was decommisioned a few years ago.

At age 72, don't think I will see the new era of fusion power but I do believe that or maybe small size fuel cell power plants for the home will be available.

Nuclear really has no future. The "new" plants in Georgia that got their permits in 2006 are still not running. With the technology advancing so quickly in renewables, and all the battery breakthroughs recently, no one is going to invest in the gigantic start-up costs of a new nuclear facility when it could be obsolete by the time it's up and running. At this point, fusion could become truly feasible in nearly the same timeframe as getting a new fission plant online.

[jmanley32]

March 3rd to 5th a big east coast storm - book it - high sun energy cycle. +/- 2 days!!!
Wet or white is the question.
Parallels the Xmas Eve Eve storm - Dec 22-23rd.

How could we possibly know this come on mugs dont give us false hopes. How many LR forecasts this year have worked out at all. Grated yes tere have been plenty of storms just 0 cold. Blah, I am ready for spring...oh wait it is already here basically. I had a feeling something was wrong this fall because we have this tree out front (I have never seen the likes of it before). It bears a small fruit and they fall off and cover the sidewalk and smell like dog S$it. this year it had no fruits and 0 fell. I have been here since 2007 and that has never happened. Very strange.

[sroc4]

Exactly one year ago tomorrow marks the anniversary of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption.  Since then the scientific community has been pouring over data from across the globe trying to understand the effects it had on our planet and how it might affect the global climate over the next few years at least. As you may know this was the biggest eruption in modern day, but major volcanic eruptions that have effects on the climate both on a local and on a global scale are nothing new to the planet. Here is a cool link from NASA discussing some of the Tonga-Hunga effects way up at the level of the ionosphere.  

 “ ICON launched in 2019 to identify how Earth’s weather interacts with weather from space – a relatively new idea supplanting previous assumptions that only forces from the Sun and space could create weather at the edge of the ionosphere.”  “These results are an exciting look at how events on Earth can affect weather in space, in addition to space weather affecting Earth,” said Jim Spann, space weather lead for NASA’s Heliophysics Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C. “Understanding space weather holistically will ultimately help us mitigate its effects on society.”

I point out these quotes from the link below for two reasons. First because I am happy to see that there are govt agencies realizing that there may be a connection between the sun and space weather and its link to the weather/climate down here in the troposphere even if some of the people in charge and main stream media outlets still don’t allow that discussion yet. And second only in 2019 has this modern satellite called the ICON been placed in this level of our atmosphere specifically designed to look at the interaction between space and the ground as well as the ground with space. Meaning, we are only beginning to scratch the surface of our understanding of how the charged particles from the sun, ie: solar wind, solar flares, and CME's to name a few, interact with the ionosphere, and how the "weather" within the ionosphere then interacts with the lower levels of our atmosphere.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2022/sun/nasa-mission-finds-tonga-volcanic-eruption-effects-reached-space


If anyone is interested in getting their geek on this morning or this weekend give this a watch. Very interesting presentation of the science of tree ring data, ice ring data, ancient civilizations accounts of major global events and putting it all together to piece together what happened to the climate on a global scale around 535-545 AD.  Spoiler alert. It involves the impacts of Krakatoa, a notoriously violent volcano located along the equator; responsible for creating several of current Indonesian islands.  



I am going to also put this post in the weather education archives because I think regardless of how you feel about man made global warming; Mother Nature for sure still has her pulse on things, and the video really gives a well presented representation of one way in which she does. If anyone, mugs I know you likely have valuable links, has current links as well as future information that comes out discussing the effects of the Hunga-Tonga eruption on our planet please put them in the thread over in the education archive or put them here and I will put them there. Have a nice weekend everyone.

[heehaw453]

Winter 2022/23 an unmitigated...

[Sponsored content]